The Northeast Quadrant

Hooray! La Niña is going away, therefore less hurricanes this Summer... Not so fast!

2011-03-18T12:35:00.002-04:00

The 2011 Hurricane Season is quickly approaching, and forecasters are predicting a weakening La Niña turning into a more neutral stage by the Summer. Many people are saying how great this is, and that this basically means a very tame season awaits us in the Atlantic this year. Surely this is great news for the Gulf Coast residents and all of the Southeastern U.S. residents who could be affected by the potential storms this Summer. But I say take it with a grain of salt. This is not the time to start celebrating because La Niña may or may not be weakening by the Summer. This is the time to start preparing for the upcoming Hurricane Season regardless of anyone's early forecast of less activity.

The quote that you will hear a lot as we approach this upcoming season is "La Niña, which causes more hurricanes, will be turning to a more neutral phase for this Summer. This means less hurricanes." I don't agree with people who say this, because it gives the average person a false sense of security for the upcoming season. There are a few things to consider as we approach this June. Firstly, take a look at the image below. It is a chart of storm activity measured from 1995-2005. The bars represent the number of major hurricanes formed during each phase. During a La Niña phase there was an average of about 4 major storms formed during those seasons. Now here comes the shocker, there were actually more storms formed during a Neutral phase (which we are heading into this Summer), then were formed during the dreaded La Niña years. About 4.5 on average. There was a slight drop off for a Weak to Moderate El Niño phase. The biggest and most noticeable drop came during a Strong El Niño phase, which we are certainly not going to experience for this upcoming season.

The second thing we we need to understand is each season has a mind of its own. Each storm has a respective life journey. No one could have predicted the ridiculous activity during the 2005 season, or the incredible luck that the U.S. experienced during last season. There were tropical systems all over the Atlantic in 2010, 21 to be exact. 12 of those were hurricanes, and yet the U.S. was not affected by any of them. So 2010 was predicted to be one of the worst seasons in history. That prediction came true to an extent because of the number of storms, but as far as people affected by the systems it was over hyped. Let's go back to 1992 for a second. There were only 7 storms which formed that year, and only one land falling hurricane. That hurricane was Andrew. So although the numbers were down that year, it was one of the most devastating years in history as far as South Florida is concerned. Now back to 2005 one last time, it was quite a year as far as storms go. 28 storms made their journey across the Atlantic that year, a staggering record that probably won't be touched anytime soon. But 2005 was not a La Niña year.

So although it is fun to read the preseason predictions when it comes to each Hurricane Season. Always remember that it is not an exact science. Every season has a different story. Every storm has a unique lifespan. And these story lines cannot be written before June arrives. We must all just take our seat, and watch how each season plays out.

--- Jesse Vinturella (TheJesFactor)

Hurricane Season 2011 Inception Style Trailer

2011-02-18T13:19:00.003-05:00

Check out this absolutely BREATHTAKING and CHILLING look at the upcoming 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

This video was made by Jesse Vinturella, who did an incredibly awesome job! It is just AMAZING! I can't wait!

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The Weathervein - Episode 19

2011-01-31T20:15:00.004-05:00

A monster winter storm is taking shape in the center of the nation and will barrel its way eastward over the next two days. The storm, which is already being called historic, will feature severe blizzard conditions from Oklahoma to Missouri through Illinois and Michigan, all the way into southern Canada. Hefty snowfall amounts throughout the Plains, Midwest and interior Northeast could exceed 1 to 2 feet, meanwhile a severe ice storm is set to cripple the Ohio Valley to New York City. In this episode of The Weathervein, get the latest on this developing storm and find out what you could expect in your neighborhood! Stay safe!

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More Record Snow in The Big Apple!

2011-01-27T16:09:00.007-05:00

Another historic snowstorm shatters NYC snowfall records!

Exactly one month after the major NYC blizzard that dumped 20" of snow on the city on December 26, another insane nor'easter moved through the the area yesterday, dumping more record snow in the metro region.

After sever hours of snowfall rates of 2-3"/hour, accompanied by thunder, lightning and wind gusts approaching 40 mph, 19" of snow fell yesterday and last night in Central Park, making this January the 'snowiest January' EVER with 36"! Further, this January is now the 'second snowiest month' EVER, by only a few tenths of an inch.

So far this season NYC has received the following snows: 1" , 20", 2", 3", 6", 1", 4", 1", 19". This brings the season total thus far to 57". On average, the city receives just under 24" of snow each winter. More snow is in the forecast this weekend and next week! If that forecast verifies, January 2011 could be not just the 'snowiest January,' but the 'snowiest month' EVER! The seasonal record is 75" during the 1995-1996 winter season. I think we could beat that this year!

Here is a short video I filmed last night from my fire escape. Check out the snow and wind! Below the video are a few photos I snapped this morning of heavy, wet snow downing trees on top of cars. This was the typical scene in New York today.

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The Weathervein - Episode 18

2011-01-25T18:13:00.004-05:00

It's been a busy winter season, but we're back! In this long-awaited episode of The Weathervein we cover the latest in a series of intense winter storms that have been plaguing the east coast. For the past 30 days storms have dumped significant amounts of snow from Philadelphia to New York to Boston, but alas, the trend is broken and now the mid-Atlantic cities of Washington, DC and Baltimore will get in on the action. Watch this episode to find out how the storm will take shape, where it will track, how fast it will move, what type of precipitation amounts can be expected and most importantly, hear our snowfall forecast!

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100° Colder!

2011-01-24T13:18:00.002-05:00

Perhaps one of the coldest mornings I have ever experienced, especially in the city, the temperature this morning in New York was 100° colder than it was just six months ago during that oppressive heat wave on July 6, 2010.

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"1-11-11" Northeast Snowstorm Final Totals

2011-01-12T10:18:00.006-05:00

In the previous blog post you will find my predictions for the snowstorm that just concluded in the New York City area. While at this time a blizzard still rages in New England, especially for the cities of Providence, Rhode Island and Boston, Massachusetts, I felt confident creating this final snowfall total map, which reflects general accumulations reported throughout the northeast, thus far.

In my opinion, I did pretty darn well with my forecast. Compare this final map to those below!

Legend:
Green: 18"+
Red: 12"-18"
Purple: 6-12"
Blue: 4-8"
Yellow: 2-4"
Orange: 1-3"...

One important thing to note..

This storm deposited a total of 10.2" of fresh snow here in Gramercy Park, New York City. With the snow pack that was already on the ground, that brings the current total snow pack to about 16". The season to date snowfall is now at about 33", and it is only the second week of January! The seasonal average snowfall for New York City is around 25" so we are already in another well-above average winter season!

Finally, check out this radar image during the height of the storm last night! Just incredible!

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"1-11-11" Northeast Snowstorm Forecast

2011-01-11T13:30:00.011-05:00

For those of you that have been following The Northeast Quadrant on Facebook, you will notice tons of coverage on the last two winter storms.

I've taken pride in really getting a handle on the computer models that forecast these storms, as well as air patterns and historical happenings associated with big northeast snowfalls. That said, I pretty much nailed the last blizzard forecast, so I thought hey, let me try again!

As another major snowstorm is on tap for the northeast, especially from Philadelphia to Boston, here is my thinking, which I am actually quite confident on...

4:30 pm UPDATE:

Map:

*Color legend is below.

By location:
Eastern Long Island through Providence and Boston: 12-18"+
New York City metro north and east: 8-12"+
New York City metro south: 5-8"+
Philly metro to central NJ coast: 3-6"+
North of Baltimore to south Philly metro: 2-4"+
Baltimore metro: 1-3"+
DC metro: generally less than 1"

While this update points to somewhat specific locations receiving somewhat specific amounts, each amount is followed by a "+" -- indicating the fate is in the development of the storm and the convective banding it produces.

As of 1:30 pm:

Map:

Legend:
Working from the green area that includes Boston as the having the highest snowfall totals, to the yellow area in Pennsylvania and New York state having the lowest, you can see where 'I think' the greatest accumulations will 'range,' and within that 'range' the totals 'could' vary greatly.

By location:
Hartford to Boston: 18"+
New York City metro: 12"+
Philly to NYC metro and the south central NJ coast: 6-12"
North of Baltimore to southwest of the Philly metro: 4-8"
Baltimore metro: 2-4"
DC metro: generally less than 2"

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2010 Was Fifth Warmest for NYC

2011-01-03T15:01:00.004-05:00

In terms of weather extremes 2010 was record setting for many global regions, and New York City's Central Park was no exception. The Park recorded it's fifth warmest year on record with an average temperature of 56.7°F. The warmest year(s) on record for Central Park were ironically recorded during the years of 1990 and 1991, where the average temperature tied at 57.3°F.

So, when in 2010 was it warm? Every month except the first and last. Between February and November Central Park recorded average temperatures well above normal, while January and December stood as the only months where temperatures were below normal.

Blizzapolis Satellite Imagery!

2010-12-28T09:36:00.003-05:00

This image, courtesy of Weather.com, shows current snow cover left behind in the wake of the big blizzard. Notice how this was a truly an I-95 eastward storm. Few areas west of the major interstate saw significant snowfall accumulations, while areas east saw up to 35 inches.

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Big Blizzard in New York City - December 26, 2010

2010-12-27T17:28:00.007-05:00

We've been tracking a potentially historic snowstorm along the east coast for the better part of the week, and alas, after much confusion, speculation and flip-flop, the models verified on this monster of a nor'easter!

This blizzard, the latest in a series of "North American Blizzards of 2010" proved to be the most intense of all, and is showing that 2010 will go out with a bang!

The post Christmas day event lasted less than 24 hours for many and was responsible for dumping greater than 30 inches of snow in some areas, and producing 80 mph wind gusts in others.

Blizzard history map, courtesy of AccuWeather.com

Blizzard observed snowfall map courtesy of AccuWeather.com

The New York City metro area, including the eastern half of New Jersey, bore the brunt of of the storm.

Captured here is my footage during the epic nor'easter yesterday, December 26, 2010.

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WEATHER REWIND! The 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season

2010-12-04T14:58:00.003-05:00

The 2010 Hurricane Season tied with 1887 and 1995 having the third highest storm count on record with 19 named storms. But short-term weather patterns dictate where storms actually travel and in many cases this season, that was away from the United States. The jet stream’s position contributed to warm and dry conditions in the eastern U.S. and acted as a barrier that kept many storms over open water. Also, because many storms formed in the extreme eastern Atlantic, they re-curved back out to sea without threatening land. This movie shows GOES-13 infrared imagery from June 1 through November 30, the official extents of the Atlantic Hurricane Season.

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Hurricane Season Rainfall: 2005 vs. 2010

2010-11-28T13:33:00.005-05:00

Impact aside, for some time now the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season has been compared to, or at least scaled against, the record-breaking season of 2005 when numerous intense hurricanes made landfall in the United States, central America and Mexico.

With a record 12 hurricanes forming this year, the 2010 season was the most active since 2005. However, the major difference is the location in which tropical cyclones formed and the areas in which their greatest rainfall totals were deposited.

During the 2005 season, the highest tropical cyclone rainfall totals (between 28 and 32 inches) were deposited over the Caribbean Sea, eastern Gulf of Mexico, western Cuba and over the waters in the Atlantic off the southeastern U.S. coast. During the 2010 season the highest tropical cyclone rainfall totals (also between 28 and 32 inches) were deposited over the open waters of the Atlantic north of Puerto Rico.

The image above shows the tropical cyclone rainfall occurring in 2010. This year, south Texas was the only location in the U.S. where tropical cyclone rainfall was greater than in 2005.

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Atlantic Hurricane Season 2010

2010-11-21T15:50:00.002-05:00

With the official close of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season still a week away, the season in pretty much all respect, is over. Sure a late-season storm or two could pop up, but the general pattern observed over the past couple weeks looks to continue, therefore furthering unfavorable conditions for development.

So... how did the season add up? The usual skeptics will say it was a bust, but in my opinion 2010 was remarkably awesome for several reasons – we reached the predicted numbers making the 2010 season one of the most active in history, and while the U.S. experienced little impact, NOAA hit the nail on the head with its early season prediction, calling for:

14 to 23 named storms
8 to 14 hurricanes
3 to 7 major hurricanes

Now check out the actuals:

	Average (1966–2009)	2010
Named Storms	8	19
Hurricanes	4	12
Major Hurricanes	1	5

Pretty darn amazing eh? Here's a look at the hurricanes of 2010...

Hurricane Alex

Hurricane Danielle

Hurricane Earl

Hurricane Igor

Hurricane Julia

Hurricane Karl

Hurricane Lisa

Hurricane Otto

Hurricane Paula

Hurricane Richard

Hurricane Shary

Hurricane Tomas

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Research, Trends Indicate Warming Atmosphere

2010-11-19T09:08:00.005-05:00

According to a new study recently published in the Journal of Geophysical Research, 'global warming' associated with 'climate change' could cool down northern temperatures during the winter months.

The cooling would be the result of shrinking sea-ice in the eastern Arctic which could cause regional heating of the lower levels of the atmosphere, therefore triggering an overall cooling of the northern continents. Most affected would be Europe and northern Asia in the form of cold winter extremes. You can learn more about the study here.

Meanwhile, scientists at NOAA and several other global climate organizations recently contributed to the paper, "Tropospheric Temperature Trends: History of an Ongoing Controversy," also indicating Earth's lower atmosphere is warming.

Displaying trends using 195 cited papers, model results and atmospheric data sets, the paper documents how, since the development of the very first climate models in the early 1960s, the troposphere has been projected to warm along with the Earth's surface because of the increasing amounts of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. You can learn more about the paper here.

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Fall = PRETTY but BORING...

2010-11-16T20:40:00.002-05:00

Not too much to talk about in weather news, folks. We're in that transition time from summer to winter and while fall tends to throw us some good punches here and there, things have been quite boring lately... well, for most.

Savor it, the winter pattern is setting up and with that should come more dynamic weather. Of course, The Northeast Quadrant will be on top of it.

In other news, this is kind of a blessing for me because work has been so incredibly busy lately. I can no longer find enough hours in the day or days in the week.

Oh, and a NEW LOGO COMING SOON! Can't wait to share it with you!

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Quiet Time... Busy Time...

2010-11-02T09:07:00.004-04:00

Just a quick note to share my apologies with the avid readers and followers of The Northeast Quadrant for not publishing as often as I would like during the last couple weeks. This will likely continue through the next week or so as I work towards a major deadline at work and prepare for a week of business travel and meetings through November 15.

Remember, you can always stay tuned to The Northeast Quadrant on Facebook at facebook.com/thenortheastquadrant and Twitter at twitter.com/nequadrant.

As always, thanks for for following!

- Devin

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BOMBOGENESIS!

2010-10-26T10:03:00.007-04:00

Bombogenesis is defined as rapid or extreme cyclogenesis of a mid-latitude cyclone that drops in surface barometric pressure by 24 or more millibars in a 24-hour period.

A record-breaking weather event is unfolding across the upper Midwest of the United States as I type this. Surface pressures are rapidly falling and the winds are kicking up big time. Why is it happening and how significant is it?

In a case of classic bombogenesis, this storm's surface pressure has been steadily falling and is expected to fall by at least 24 millibars in 24 hours. Bombogensis is not something you often see in this part of the country, but for those in the tropics (hurricanes) and the northeast (nor'easters), it's not that unfamiliar of a term.

Current surface maps as of 10:00 a.m. ET, October 26, 2010

So how could this storm stack up with other notables in the region? In a tale of "GREAT" 'Great Lakes' Cyclones,' the developing storm could go down as the second strongest cyclone (in terms of pressure) to move through the region since record keeping began. Check it out...

1. The Great Ohio Blizzard - January 26, 1978 (958mb/28.05 inches)
UPDATE 10:30 p.m. ET, October 26, 2010: Now the #2 storm.

2. CURRENT STORM - October 26-27, 2010 (959mb/28.35 inches)
UPDATE 10:30 p.m. ET, October 26, 2010: The current storm has become the #1 storm at 955mb/28.20 inches.

3. Armistice Day Storm - November 11, 1940 (967mb/28.55 inches) and Anniversary Storm - November 10, 1988 (967mb/28.55 inches)

4. Cyclone of 1913 - November 7-9, 1913 (968mb/28.60 inches)

5. Edmund Fitzgerald Storm - November 10, 1975 (980mb/28.95 inches)

Speaking of the Edmund Fitzgerald Storm, check out his tribute...

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Winter 2010–2011 Forecast Summary

2010-10-25T11:31:00.006-04:00

Over the past few weeks a variety of winter forecasts were released to the public, all of which are hinting at another season of extremes for the United States.

While the extremes of last winter will likely not be felt in the same regions, with this coming winter a new round of crazy weather could be in store for areas far removed from the 2010 blizzard-plagued mid-Atlantic and northeast.

To make it easier for you, here's a regional summary of pretty much every forecast released:

Pacific Northwest: Colder and wetter than average. La Niña often brings lower than average temperatures and increased mountain snow to the Pacific Northwest and western Montana during the winter months, which is good for the replenishment of water resources and winter recreation but can also lead to greater flooding and avalanche concerns.

Southwest: Warmer and drier than average. This will likely exacerbate drought conditions in these areas. All southern states are at risk of having above normal wildfire conditions starting this winter and lasting into the spring.

Northern Plains: Colder and wetter than average. Likely to see increased storminess and flooding.

Southern Plains, Gulf Coast States & Southeast: Warmer and drier than average. This will likely exacerbate drought conditions in these areas. All southern states are at risk of having above normal wildfire conditions starting this winter and lasting into the spring.

Florida: Drier than average, with an equal chance for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures. Above normal wildfire conditions.

Ohio and Tennessee Valleys: Warmer and wetter than average. Likely to see increased storminess and flooding.

Northeast and Mid-Atlantic: Equal chances for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures and precipitation. Winter weather for these regions is often driven not by La Niña but by weather patterns over the northern Atlantic Ocean and Arctic. These are often more short-term, and are generally predictable only a week or so in advance. If enough cold air and moisture are in place, areas north of the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast could see above-average snow.

Central U.S.: Equal chances of above-near-or below normal temperatures and precipitation.

Hawaii: Drier than normal through November, then wetter than normal December through February. Statewide, the current drought is expected to continue through the winter, with several locations remaining on track to become the driest year on record. Drought recovery is more likely on the smaller islands of Kauai and Molokai, and over the windward slopes of the Big Island and Maui.

Alaska: Odds favor colder than average temperatures with equal chances of above or below normal precipitation. The interior and southern portions of the state are currently drier than normal. A dry winter may set Alaska up for a greater chance of above normal wildfire conditions in the spring.

Courtesy NWS

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The Weathervein - Episode 17

2010-10-21T18:51:00.007-04:00

Here we are in late October and the northwest Caribbean remains a breeding ground as we now have Tropical Storm Richard. Richard, which should become a hurricane over the next day or so, is spinning its way slowly westward towards the Yucatan Peninsula. That's right, yet another Yucatan threat! But what about the United States? Well folks, this might be the one to watch! Find out in this episode of The Weathervein where Richard is heading, how strong he could get, who might be impacted in the short- and long-range and what it could mean for the Gulf coast! We're hurricane ready on The Weathervein... are you?

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Global Drought on the Horizon?

2010-10-20T15:28:00.005-04:00

According to a new study by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), the United States and many other heavily populated countries could face a growing threat of severe and prolonged drought in coming decades, as a result of warming temperatures associated with climate change (notice how I didn't say global warming!). These warming temperatures will likely create increasingly dry conditions across much of the globe in the next 30 years, possibly reaching a scale in some regions by the end of the century that has rarely, if ever, been observed in modern times.

The study, which is highlighted in an article in "Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change," indicates that most at risk would be the Western Hemisphere, along with large parts of Eurasia, Africa, and Australia, while higher-latitude regions from Alaska to Scandinavia are likely to experience opposite conditions.

An expert working on the study noted that if the projections come even close to being realized, the consequences for society worldwide will be enormous as some of the worst impact we face will involve a decrease in water as a natural resource.

Learn more about the study here.

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Super Typhoon Megi: An Interview in the Aftermath

2010-10-19T08:30:00.001-04:00

On Sunday night Super Typhoon Megi and it's 180+ mph winds barreled into northern Luzon in the Philippines as the strongest tropical cyclone of the 2010 season. With a minimum pressure of 885 millibars at landfall, Megi, known locally as 'Juan,' could perhaps go down as the strongest landfalling tropical cyclone ever!

Last night via Skype I caught up with Claiv Marco from Manila and he provided insight into the state of calamity in northern Luzon, the effects Megi had on his region south of the disaster zone, and an update where Megi is now and where it is headed, as well as some historical perspective on typhoons striking the Philippines.

Claiv is a big fan of The Northeast Quadrant and I thank him greatly for this interview. Check it out here...

Claiv Marco:
good evening devin

Devin Matthew Toporek:
hi!

Claiv Marco:
oh, sorry for waiting

Devin Matthew Toporek:
no problem

Devin Matthew Toporek:
you have video?

Claiv Marco:
my web cam unavailable

Devin Matthew Toporek:
oh that is too bad. was hoping to record something so i could repost it and share with those on the northeast quadrant page.

Devin Matthew Toporek:
so how are things there?

Claiv Marco:
its too bad

Claiv Marco:
mostly in the Northern part

Devin Matthew Toporek:
what are you hearing?

Claiv Marco:
power poles and lines were destroyed

Devin Matthew Toporek:
i'm sure!

Claiv Marco:
most of the towns and provinces in northern Luzon has no power

Claiv Marco:
even telecommunication networks

Devin Matthew Toporek:
i would imagine the storm surge was incredible! do you know how high it was?

Claiv Marco:
what i've heard is about 18-20 feet

Claiv Marco:
along the east coast

Devin Matthew Toporek:
wow!

Devin Matthew Toporek:
i would have expected even more!

Devin Matthew Toporek:
during Hurricane Katrina there was almost a 30 feet surge

Devin Matthew Toporek:
and 20+ with Ike

Claiv Marco:
maybe its because the area there is too terrain

Devin Matthew Toporek:
probably because there is also less influence from a continental shelf like we have here in the United States

Devin Matthew Toporek:
is the area where Megi made landfall heavily populated?

Claiv Marco:
in some part mostly in the Ilagan City Isabela, where its eye passed, the entire province of Isabela is now under state of calamity, and hundreds of houses destroyed

Devin Matthew Toporek:
unbelievable! i can only imagine!

Devin Matthew Toporek:
i find it interesting but extremely fortunate that i have only heard of a few deaths from this storm, so far. it just amazes me because in a storm like that we would lose hundreds, if not thousands... it's happened before here and i am sure it would again. you are very lucky.

Claiv Marco:
yes and we are very thankful to God

Devin Matthew Toporek:
so tell me... what was the feeling like there when Megi was approaching. what were the weather forecasters and government telling the residents of northern Luzon province?

Claiv Marco:
all of the evacuees stayed in gymnasiums and schools

Claiv Marco:
before the landfall

Devin Matthew Toporek:
good!

Claiv Marco:
but unfortunately

Claiv Marco:
the rice fields, corn fields and other sources of their livelihood were totally destroyed

Claiv Marco:
they are crying

Devin Matthew Toporek:
that is sad, i cannot imagine what it would be like to realize such a loss! as i said, they're very lucky to have their life though.

Devin Matthew Toporek:
did you see or hear of many northern residents evacuating to your area down south?

Claiv Marco:
i didn't heard something, i think they all just stayed in government properties in their provinces maybe because they'll be having hard time to go south because you need to cross mountains before going south and they don't need to leave their places

Devin Matthew Toporek:
oh, i see.

Devin Matthew Toporek:
so tell me, living in the Philippines... you have seen quite a few Typhoons, right? which ones do you recall the most and why?

Claiv Marco:
oh great question

Claiv Marco:
i'm gonna share you a lot

Devin Matthew Toporek:
can't wait!

Devin Matthew Toporek:
go for it!

Claiv Marco:
Ok, the most intense and powerful typhoon that I experience in Manila is Typhoon Xangsane or Milenyo here in the Philippines. Because of Xangsane, I became interested in typhoon forecasting.

Devin Matthew Toporek:
how old were you when Xangsane hit, and how strong was it?

Claiv Marco:
i think i'm 17

Claiv Marco:
it's too strong for us living in the city

Devin Matthew Toporek:
what was the devastation like?

Claiv Marco:
lots of billboards collapse and fell down in major roads

Claiv Marco:
trees fell over roofs

Devin Matthew Toporek:
sounds scary! but fun at the same time, obviously that is the weather enthusiast and storm chaser in me speaking!

Devin Matthew Toporek:
i bet if Megi made landfall near Manila the effects would be far worse than what they were!

Claiv Marco:
yes i understand, i feel the same way too

Claiv Marco:
Oh wow maybe

Claiv Marco:
i think there will be lots of damages

Devin Matthew Toporek:
and what about Milenyo? how strong was that storm and how old were you?

Claiv Marco:
Xangsane is Milenyo

Claiv Marco:
we change typhoon name when in enters the territory

Devin Matthew Toporek:
oh, how interesting! is that why Megi you began calling it Juan?

Devin Matthew Toporek:
why do they change the typhoon names when they enter the Philippines territories?

Claiv Marco:
because our authorities wanted to have clear number of storms that enters the country and it is alphabetical in order

Devin Matthew Toporek:
again, how interesting!

Claiv Marco:
right now we are experiencing strong winds and heavy rain here in southern Luzon including Manila

Claiv Marco:
because of the outer rainbands

Devin Matthew Toporek:
right, i saw that the typhoon's outflow was still impressive!

Devin Matthew Toporek:
it was amazing though last night to see just how quickly the storm deteriorated once it made landfall. that high terrain just ripped it apart...

Devin Matthew Toporek:
though having it still emerge over the south china sea as a strog category 2 (hurricane) is yet again impressive.

Claiv Marco:
yes and it still intensifying

Devin Matthew Toporek:
right... will continue to do so until its second landfall later this week in southeast china.

Devin Matthew Toporek:
should not be a strong as it was though, right?

Claiv Marco:
yes, and i think its forecast is to move near hong kong

Devin Matthew Toporek:
i saw that!

Devin Matthew Toporek:
hong kong looks like it will be in "the northeast quadrant" no less!

Devin Matthew Toporek:
my work has a conference in hong kong later this week! crazy!

Claiv Marco:
I see, wow, hope to be like what you are doing

Claiv Marco:
Ok i'll share more experiences in typhoons

Devin Matthew Toporek:
yes, please!

Claiv Marco:
as i've said the most powerful that i experienced was milenyo, now i'm gonna tell you the most devastating, it is typhoon Ondoy or Ketsana in international name

Claiv Marco:
it hit Manila as a Tropical Storm

Devin Matthew Toporek:
oh yeah? what was so bad, the rain?

Claiv Marco:
yes too bad,the entire Metro Manila almost submerged

Claiv Marco:
it brought 348.4 mm of rain

Devin Matthew Toporek:
wow!

Devin Matthew Toporek:
we had a bad tropical storm here about ten years ago. it's name was Allison.

Devin Matthew Toporek:
similar devastation from flooding rains...

Devin Matthew Toporek:
http://northeastquadrant.blogspot.com/2010/06/tropical-storm-allison-lesson-learned.html

Devin Matthew Toporek:
so are you going to study weather when you go to college?

Claiv Marco:
wow 40 in

Devin Matthew Toporek:
yeah, Allison was horrible!

Claiv Marco:
i just study by myself over the web, and meteorology is not actually my course

Devin Matthew Toporek:
you are great at it! i see your posts and maps on your facebook wall. keep up the good work!

Claiv Marco:
thanks!! i just wanted to tell and warn my friends

Devin Matthew Toporek:
let's make a deal! if the opportunity presents itself, and let's hope it does soon, you can come to the U.S. and chase a hurricane with me and i come there and chase a [super]typhoon with you!

Claiv Marco:
wow, if that's it, let's see

Devin Matthew Toporek:
easier said than done right??? ;-)

Claiv Marco:
yes, it's not that easy

Claiv Marco:
mostly in my case

Devin Matthew Toporek:
well let's hope you and your family and friends and all those in the Philippines and south China as well - all stay safe for the rest of the season!

Claiv Marco:
Yours likewise! God Bless you!

Devin Matthew Toporek:
stay in touch... and good luck in school!

Claiv Marco:
Thank you, by the way i already graduated

Devin Matthew Toporek:
do you mind if i post this conversation on the northeast quadrant and blog? i am sure people would be so interested to hear about it!

Devin Matthew Toporek:
oh, i'm sorry. i thought you were still in school... well good for you then!

Claiv Marco:
It's Ok, Thanks for a great conversation

Devin Matthew Toporek:
you too! have a good day...

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NASA's Concludes GRIP Mission

2010-10-13T08:30:00.006-04:00

Comprehensive hurricane research project proves successful!

Last week NASA concluded its GRIP (Genesis and Rapid Intensification Process) hurricane research mission aimed at gaining a better understanding of tropical cyclone behavior—how they form, evolve and strengthen, and how they weaken and die. GRIP, which launched in mid-July, promises to revolutionize tropical weather forecasts in years to come.

How it worked
The GRIP mission analyzed storms with manned and unmanned aircraft as well as satellite imagery. The aircraft, ready for deployment at a moments notice, were based along the U.S. Gulf coast and northern Caribbean islands and were equipped with 15 weather instruments, ranging from an advanced microwave sounder to dropsondes—gadgets that record atmospheric and surface measurements as they fall through the atmosphere to the ocean surface.

The perfect specimens
While tropical cyclone impact for the season remains quite low for U.S. coastal communities, two hurricanes, Earl and Karl were significant for GRIP's research. Earl, a category 4 storm that spun through the central and western Atlantic, was analyzed as it rapidly intensified and degraded off the southeast coast before heading northward towards the Canadian maritime region. During this time GRIP sent several aircraft into the storm, penetrating its eye and sending back critical storm data that offered insight into wind speed and direction as well as wind shear's affect on hurricanes moving swiftly through northern latitudes. Similarly, Karl, which was a strengthening category 3 at landfall, was penetrated by additional aircraft as it plowed into the Mexican coast. These aircraft captured valuable data such as cloud temperature, air pressure, humidity, precipitation, convection and sea surface temperatures. GRIP continued it's research after Karl moved inland and deteriorated, also providing perspective on how land friction affects hurricane degradation.

The seasonal scorecard
The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season concludes November 31 and remains quite active, with 18 storms, of which 16 have been named. 8 of those named storms became hurricanes, of which 5 were major.

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The Weathervein - Episode 16

2010-10-11T18:31:00.007-04:00

The Weathervein is back and we're recapping the tropics and providing the latest information on soon-to-be Hurricane Paula in the northwest Caribbean, as well as a developing nor'easter for the northeast U.S. later this week! Check it out here in Episode 16 of The Weathervein!

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The Northeast Quadrant Promo Video

2010-10-08T20:04:00.006-04:00

Weather Enthusiast, Blogger, Social Networker and Storm Chaser

In this video Devin Matthew Toporek promotes The Northeast Quadrant online community for weather enthusiasts, professionals and all those interested in meteorology and more. The Northeast Quadrant also can be found on:

Facebook: http://facebook.com/northeastquadrant
Twitter: http://twitter.com/nequadrant
YouTube: http://youtube.com/nequadrant

Enjoy, and thanks for following!

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17, 15, 8, 5

2010-10-08T11:38:00.005-04:00

You might be wondering what the numbers in the title of this post refer to. Well wonder no more because I'm going to tell you these numbers reference the scorecard for the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season – a season that will go down in the record books as one of the most active in history!

Wait, what!? How can it be one of the most active?

You mean you haven't heard that more than half the storms, major hurricanes included, have gone out to sea as 'fish storms?' That's right... it's been a very active hurricane season but with little U.S. impact, who knew?!

With the formation of Hurricane Otto today, the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season now features a total of 17 storms, 15 of which have been named and of those, 8 became hurricanes. Of those hurricanes, 5 were majors (category 3, i.e. 115 mph or higher). A typical hurricane season produces about 10 storms, of which 6 become hurricanes.

Before the start of hurricane season experts warned of the threat of not only an active season but a very high impact one, however, as mentioned and observed, U.S. impact has been quite minimal outside of a few tropical storms, a depression and glancing blow from Hurricane Earl.

While we are hitting the numbers big time, somewhat unexpected atmospheric conditions have steered a great number of storms away from U.S. coastlines. Who's complaining right? Well, aside from the storm chasers and weather enthusiasts!

Hurricane tracks are greatly influenced by the aforementioned atmospheric conditions. The upper level currents steer hurricanes in a variety of ways and storm tracks are highly dependent on where the storms form and the steering currents at that particular time. According to National Hurricane Center (NHC) Director, Bill Read, with the weather pattern that was in place and the fact that this season's storms formed so far out to the east, it's not surprising that they turned off to the north. As soon as you find a weakness in the big high (known as the Bermuda High) you'll get that effect. This follows the same methodology that Greg Nordstrom and I refer to often in The Weathervein. When storms form east of 35W longitude they will 9 out of 10 times curve out to sea.

Time will tell what the remainder of hurricane season will bring but we only have 6 names left on the list before they are used up. Those names are Paula, Richard, Shary, Tomas, Virginie and Walter. Thereafter we would be required to begin using the Greek alphabet as we did only one time before – in 2005. However, time is running out.

Regardless, always be hurricane ready!

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Measuring up the Summer of 2010!

2010-10-04T08:30:00.000-04:00

From record-breaking heatwaves to drought and fires, on a global scale the summer of 2010 will undoubtedly go down in the books as one of the most extreme for the northern hemisphere. But how extreme and how hot... and how does it compare to years prior?

According to recently released information by NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), globally, June through August was the fourth-warmest summer period in GISS's 131-year-temperature record. The same months during 2009, in contrast, were the second warmest on record. The cooler 2010 summer temperatures (and by cooler I mean SLIGHTLY and UNNOTICEABLE by many) were primarily the result of the current La Niña pattern replacing El Niño which has controlled our weather for the better part of the last year or so.

Looking at this information you probably cannot help but wonder if this trend points towards a warming planet, especially when global seasonal temperatures for the spring of 2010 also were the warmest on record. It is the public's instinct to look at local temperature anomalies and draw that conclusion, but GISS says these trends have limited relevance on a global scale.

In reviewing some interesting data, I personally made note that 2010 is shaping up very similar to 2005 which was THE warmest year on record. We are looking at similar atmospheric patterns, and that includes the current influences on the Atlantic hurricane season. GISS believes 2010 will end up measuring sufficiently close to 2005 and the last few months of the year will be very telling as that is the period that brought 2005 from being one of the warmest to THE warmest.

Here are some links to previous posts I've written on the extremes of summer 2010!

Heat Wave to Continue Choking mid-Atlantic, Northeast U.S. (July 6, 2010)

NEQ Friday Review, V.10 (July 9, 2010)

Extreme Heat Could Become Summer's Norm (July 22, 2010)

Russia Heat Wave is OUT OF CONTROL! (August 10, 2010)

Global Extremities of Summer 2010 (August 17, 2010)

2010 U.S. Summer Review (September 15, 2010)

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2010 Atlantic Tropical Update: What Lies Ahead

2010-10-01T11:37:00.005-04:00

As mentioned the other day we are well into an above-average Atlantic hurricane season, now recording 14 named storms from Alex to Nicole, and two unnamed tropical depressions. That leaves us with just seven more names available until we would need to cut into the Greek alphabet – which has only been done once in history – in 2005. Given statistical guidance, it could happen again.

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), 27.3 percent of all tropical storms and 26.7 percent of all hurricanes since 1851 have formed between today, October 1 and December 31, (despite the seasons official close on November 30), and in fact, October rivals August when it comes to the number of tropical storms that form in waters that are still warm, such as the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea.

In 2005, a season that featured similar favorable tropical development conditions as the 2010 season, nine storms were recorded in October alone, and an additional four storm developed through the turn of the new year (2005– 2006). Even though there are no indications a situation like that would evolve during the next few months, it would not take much – just a gradual storm here and there – to easily advance us through the remainder of the alphabet. But that said, what happened to impact? This season was dubbed the season of impact, not the season of numbers?

It only takes one, so what imminently lies ahead? The NHC is now tracking a new invest area called 97L which has a 40 percent chance of development over the next couple days. Should it develop it would become Tropical Depression #16 and/or Tropical Storm and/or Hurricane Otto. This is a system that in the near-term the Leeward islands of the Caribbean will want to watch.

Regarding the Gulf of Mexico, this area is blocked for development, at least for now. The Caribbean continues to produce a lot of disorganized convection left behind from Matthew and Nicole, but nothing appears to be boiling into a tropical cyclone (yet).

Now in related news I'd like to provide you a link to NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracking Tool which allows users to search by U.S. zip code, state or county, storm name or year, or latitude and longitude points to plot some of the greatest storm tracks from year's past. The site includes tropical cyclone data and information on coastal county hurricane strikes through 2009. It also features a searchable database of population changes versus hurricane strikes for U.S. coastal counties from 1900 to 2000 and includes detailed reports on the life history and effects of U.S. tropical cyclones since 1958. Check it out here.

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Caribbean is Stressed Out... Again!

2010-09-29T10:21:00.007-04:00

Extreme conditions such as warm sea-surface temperatures are fueling an active hurricane season, but they are taking their toll on the Atlantic basin's tropical coral reefs.

The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season has thus far already been the most active since the epic 2005 season when several hurricanes plowed through the Caribbean and that year, like this year, thermal stress is taking its toll on the region's coral.

According to a statement released last week by NOAA, a strong potential for bleaching now exists in the Caribbean and it could be as severe as in 2005 when over 80 percent of corals bleached and over 40 percent died. Prolonged coral bleaching, can lead to coral death and the subsequent loss of coral reef habitats for a range of marine life.

This is more than likely attributed to extremely warm and unprecedented sea surface temperatures. High temperatures cause corals to force out the symbiotic algae that provide them with food. This makes the corals appear white or 'bleached' and can increase outbreaks of infectious disease. The decline and loss of coral reefs has significant social, cultural, economic and ecological impacts.

It is still too early to tell the long-term effect and severity of this year's coral bleaching but the 2005 bleaching event was the result of the largest, most intense thermal stress ever recorded in the Caribbean during the 25-year NOAA satellite record.

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Four Cat 4's...

2010-09-28T08:50:00.005-04:00

I created a graphic this morning for The Northeast Quadrant's Facebook page WEATHER PHOTO OF THE DAY album which depicts satellite images of the four category 4's of 2010 (so far), featuring Hurricanes Danielle, Earl, Igor and Julia.

These four storms were classic Cape Verde hurricanes and while Danielle and Julia remained out to sea, Earl and Igor directly and indirectly impacted land mass. Both Igor and Julia attained category 4 strength simultaneously – an occurrence that has not happened since September 16, 1926.

I thought this was a pretty cool way of showing that no two storms are alike despite their similar characteristics!

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The Atlantic Basin Goes Silent... But Not For Long

2010-09-27T10:13:00.011-04:00

After a slow start to a hurricane season that was hyped to be anything but slow, today marks the first full day since the development of Tropical Depression #6 on August 21 (which would later become Hurricane Danielle) that we've gone without a named storm in the Atlantic basin. Although we almost did it between September 5–6 when Hurricane Earl dissipated in the north Atlantic, we were surprised when Tropical Depression #10 (which would later become Tropical Storm Hermine) quickly spun up in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico before making landfall in extreme northeastern Mexico. This marks a total of 36 days having a named storm, the longest such period since the 2002 Atlantic hurricane season, which had remained completely active for 45 days from August 29 through October 12.

We are well into an above-average Atlantic hurricane season with 13 named storms and two unnamed tropical depressions, and there are only eight more names available for use before we'd need to break into Greek alphabet, which has only been done once in history – during the epic 2005 Atlantic hurricane season. With that said, today's break in activity leaves us on edge after yesterday's degeneration of both Lisa and Matthew, wondering where Nicole is... and will Otto follow?

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) there is an increasingly likely chance we'll see our next named storm this week as an area of convection continues to flare up in the northwest Caribbean Sea which in the short-term seems to have its eyes on the southeastern Gulf coast. Meanwhile, a very small area of convection flared overnight in the central Atlantic, but development of this system is not likely in the near-term.

There is not yet an official invest on the system in the Caribbean but by day's end I would expect to see 96L pop up! At that time the computer models should have a better handle on what the system might do – where it might go, how fast it might develop and how strong it could become. To that extent I encourage all interests in the northwest Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico to monitor possible development in this region as the break in tropical activity seems to be short-lived!

[UPDATE #1: As of 3:30 p.m. ET 09-27-10, we officially have 96L invest.]
[UPDATE #2: As of 11:00 a.m. ET 09-28-10, we officially have Tropical Depression #16.]

I'll leave you with 2010 Atlantic hurricane season scorecard, courtesy of The Weather Channel:

	Average (1966–2009)	2010
Named Storms	8	19
Hurricanes	4	7
Major Hurricanes	1	5

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Another GREAT Hurricane Igor Chase Recap

2010-09-27T09:52:00.003-04:00

Now that you've all read my Hurricane Igor chase recap, hear it through Greg Nordstrom as he reviews his experience in Bermuda last week on his blog, EYE OF THE STORM! Greg posted his blog yesterday along with some pretty amazing videos and I definitely encourage you to check them out at hurricanechaser.net!

Great job, Greg! Looking forward to chasing with you again in the very near future!

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The Weathervein - Episode 15

2010-09-24T15:46:00.006-04:00

This past week just as Igor raced off into the north Atlantic and Julia dissipated in it's wake, Tropical Storm Lisa spun up near the Cape Verde Islands and this evening became the seventh hurricane of the season! Meanwhile another tropical storm, Matthew, slammed into the Nicaraguan coast this afternoon and will bring with it several days of heavy rain throughout the central American region. But what's next? Is the U.S. on the radar for potential impact from the next storm? Find out in this episode of The Weathervein as Devin and Greg invite you to check out recaps of their Hurricane Igor chase in Bermuda as well as provide insight on the state of the tropics!

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On The Barometer Bob Show

2010-09-23T22:44:00.008-04:00

Greg and Devin provide an in-depth recap of their experience riding out and chasing Hurricane Igor in Bermuda!

Earlier this evening Greg Nordstrom and I were featured on The Barometer Bob Show as we recapped our Hurricane Igor chase in Bermuda! Scroll to minute 20:10 to hear the interview...

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Hurricane Igor: Storm Chase Recap!

2010-09-22T12:30:00.030-04:00

September 16–19, 2010 – Bermuda

Well, after nearly a week of chasing the strongest hurricane thus far in the 2010 Atlantic season, I am finally back home in New York! Despite the storm’s weakened state upon its approach to Bermuda, chasing Hurricane Igor on that tiny north-Atlantic island was undoubtedly one of my greatest moments as a weather enthusiast!

The chase began on Thursday, September 16, as Greg Nordstrom and I were to depart from New York’s JFK airport but were delayed until Friday morning, September 17 due to severe weather in the area. We spent the night trying to sleep on the cold terminal floor, which sounds absolutely awful, but we did manage to have a bit of fun. We made friends with a girl by the name of Vanessa and the three of us huddled together, enjoyed some cocktails at the airport bar and tried to make the most of the situation.

On Friday morning the flight departed and arrived as smooth as could be. Upon arrival in Bermuda a local journalist by the name of Patricia contacted us and she was doing a story on Hurricane Igor and the storm chasers that were invading her island nation. We spent a few days before Igor’s landfall traversing the island with Patricia and we are so grateful for that opportunity, for without her guidance we would never have seen the things we did! From viewing roaring, crashing waves on Bermuda’s south shore to witnessing locals boarding up their homes in the lovely neighborhoods that line Bermuda’s coast – it was truly a unique experience.

On Friday afternoon Hurricane Igor began to somewhat deteriorate in organization as it officially made that northward turn and began its approach towards Bermuda. However, well in advance of what was a category 2 hurricane at the time (on its way to a category 1 from a strong category 4), Igor was responsible for a significant coastal battering. Surge was already rolling in along Bermuda’s south shore, especially into tributaries and inlets opening up to the fierce Atlantic. We were informed that areas we were looking at that appeared as a lake or river, were actually land – and this was at least 30 hours prior to Igor’s near direct hit.

Since Hurricane Igor was so massive in size, having been the third largest Atlantic hurricane ever recorded, conditions started going downhill on Saturday evening. By the time we went to sleep we were easily experiencing tropical depression conditions and by the middle of the night a weak tropical storm was in full effect.

Sunday was the day! By sunrise the winds were howling and the rain was pouring. The surf was kicking up more than it had in day’s prior and Bermuda was well entrenched in strong tropical storm conditions. Throughout the day the winds steadily increased and as evening dawned upon us we were officially experiencing Hurricane Igor, and would for the several hours to come.

During the height of the storm we took some risks but safety was on the top of our minds. While it might appear that we were too close for comfort, we made sound decisions and never felt that our life was in danger.

Although category 1 Hurricane Igor never made a direct hit to Bermuda, for the duration of the storm we were in the northeast quadrant – the strongest part of the storm, so we did feel the brunt of the impact. Many people said (locals and storm chasers alike) that Igor was the “best” and/or “strongest” category 1 hurricane they had ever experienced. I have not been in many but from what I witnessed in chasing this massive storm, I concur!

Throughout the storm as conditions and connectivity allowed, I kept everyone up to date on The Northeast Quadrant Facebook page. I know they really enjoyed seeing all the footage first-hand and I am so grateful to have been able to share the storm with them. I also submitted some footage to The Weather Channel which was aired on television and is still available online. I also conducted an interview with The Weather Channel via Skype, which aired live on Sunday morning just before the onset of Igor’s hurricane force winds.

Below you will find a movie I put together which combines the best footage from over 100 clips I filmed before and during the storm, as well as a slideshow of photos. Despite the dramatic feel these medium convey, as you can imagine it in no way showcases actually being in the storm!

Thank you so much for allowing me to share this experience with all of you – it is, after all, not only chasing Igor, but also me chasing my dream!

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The Weathervein - Episode 14 - LIVE FROM BERMUDA IN HURRICANE IGOR

2010-09-18T16:02:00.006-04:00

[Filmed Friday 9/17 and early Saturday 9/17] After a rough day of travel on Thursday, Greg and Devin finally made it to Bermuda Friday morning where they began to head on chase the monster of the Atlantic, Hurricane Igor. The record-breaking, powerful and excessively large hurricane is bearing down on the tiny island nation and the hosts of The Weathervein are capturing its every move as it inches closer to what could be a direct hit landfall on Sunday night. Check out this episode of The Weathervein and hear an update on the chase and see some amazing footage of Bermuda's coastal battering!

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Departing for Bermuda to Chase Hurricane Igor

2010-09-16T12:43:00.006-04:00

Well, in just a couple hours I will be meeting my good friend and pro storm chaser and meteorologist, Greg Nordstrom at JFK airport here in NYC. Together we will be leaving on a jet plane (perhaps not - a puddle jumper might do the job) to the tiny central Atlantic island nation of Bermuda.

Bermuda is in the direct path of major Hurricane Igor, now a category 4 packing winds of 140 mph with gusts over 160! While Igor will likely fluctuate in strength over the next few days, he will remain a dangerous, large and powerful tropical cyclone as he spirals closer to the island.

Igor should bring deteriorating conditions to Bermuda as early as Saturday morning, with tropical storm conditions developing Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. Because of Igor's massive size, hurricane conditions should develop Sunday afternoon and could last right through the day on Monday. Late Monday Igor should be well northeast of the island.

Exactly what Igor delivers to Bermuda is yet to be seen, but you can bet Greg and I will do our best to bring you as much footage as possible before, during and after the storm! Our first plan is to check-in this evening, get a good night's sleep and wake up tomorrow morning to begin preparing us for the chase!

Wish us luck, and thanks for following!

Hurricane Igor's current projected path.

Satellite image of category 4 Hurricane Igor.

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2010 U.S. Summer Review

2010-09-15T08:30:00.005-04:00

2010 was the fourth warmest U.S. summer on record!

NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) confirmed this week that the summer of 2010 was, as expected and fully observed by many... HOT!

Published in NOAA's State of the Climate report and based on records dating back to 1895, the NCDC notes that although the entire country experienced the fourth warmest summer on record, three climate regions in the continuous United States had temperatures in the top five: the southeast (warmest), the central (third warmest) and the northeast (fourth warmest). Several cities broke summer temperature records, including New York, Philadelphia, Trenton, Wilmington, Tallahassee and Asheville.

Here are some highlights from the report:
NCDC's Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for summer 2010 was about one-and-a-half times its historical average

The northeast climate region experienced its warmest January-August period with an average temperature more than 3.4°F above the long-term average
The majority of the U.S. had above-average temperatures last month. No state experienced an average temperature significantly below its long-term average
Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Rhode Island, Connecticut and New Jersey each had their warmest year-to-date period and all of the Northeastern states ranked in the top ten percent of warmest periods on record
Only Florida and Texas had below normal temperatures for the entire year so far

Learn more about these interesting summer of 2010 facts here.

It should be noted that several weather forecasting models predict cooling in months and years ahead, so if you're like me and found this past summer difficult to deal with, relief might be in sight!

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The Weathervein - Episode 13

2010-09-13T20:44:00.002-04:00

Major Hurricane Igor is buzz-sawing its way slowly through the central Atlantic and remains a powerful category 4 storm! As of now, Igor's projected path brings it dangerously close to Bermuda late this coming weekend. Behind Igor Tropical Storm Julia is gathering strength and while it could become a hurricane over the next day or so, it too should remain a "fish storm." Another area of disturbed weather in the central Caribbean is under invest for potential development which as of now has been slow to non-existent to occur, but that could change in coming days as it makes its way towards the Yucatan Peninsula. For the latest on this very active time in the tropics and for a look ahead at the next couple weeks, check out this episode of The Weathervein!

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More GOES-15 Photos on the Horizon

2010-09-13T08:30:00.000-04:00

Last week NASA and NOAA reported that the third and final spacecraft in the GOES N-P Series of geostationary environmental weather satellites known as GOES-15, has successfully completed five months of testing and has been accepted into service.

The GOES fleet help NOAA forecasters track life-threatening weather and it is one of the most useful satellites, providing a constant stream of data and imagery as it observes clouds, ocean temperatures, winds, atmospheric properties, severe storm systems, fires and many other environmental parameters covering more than 50 percent of the Earth's surface.

GOES-15 has already started to deliver high-resolution photos from space (see image above of Hurricane Danielle), including the first visible and infrared images of Earth taken by its imager instrument, and the first image of the sun taken by its solar X-ray imager instrument.

GOES-15 will be placed in an on-orbit storage location at 105 degrees west longitude should one of the operational GOES satellites degrade or exhaust their fuel. It will share a parking space with GOES-14, currently in the same storage orbit. Both satellites can be made operational within 24 hours to replace an older satellite.

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Report Suggest New Strategies for Better Climate Predictions

2010-09-10T09:17:00.004-04:00

A recent report by the National Academy of Sciences analyzes climate predictions and the difficult reality of the complex interactions between Earth's ocean, atmosphere and land; and the role they play in determining long-range climate forecasts. The report, "Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability," is the result of a NOAA requested study and recommends strategies and best practices for improving these complex and difficult predictions.

People all over the world rely on accurate short-term climate forecasts on timescales ranging from a few weeks to a few years to make more informed decisions. To that extent the report is recommending the following in dealing with the key shortcomings and strategies needed to make more accurate climate forecasts:

Continue research to better understand and use information from key sources of climate predictability, and interactions between the ocean and atmosphere, atmosphere and land, as well as volcanic eruptions, greenhouse gases and land use changes.
Improve the basic building blocks of climate forecasts through better physical climate models, making more sustained physical observations, better incorporating observations into forecast systems, and increasing collaboration between forecast agencies and stakeholders in developing and implementing forecast strategies.
Adopt best practices such as working more closely with research communities, particularly universities; making data that feed into and come out of forecasts publicly available; minimizing subjective forecast components; and using forecast metrics that better convey to the public the probability aspects of forecasts.

The report also highlights Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) events and their powerful influence on making climate predictions and long-term weather patterns. MJO events have been known to trigger the beginning and end of the Asian and Indian monsoons and influence the development and evolution of El Niño, hurricanes and weather in Earth's mid-latitudes. The report notes that scientists want to incorporate information about the MJO more accurately into the computer models that agencies around the world use to predict weather and climate.

For more information the complete report can be downloaded here.

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Vulnerable Northeast SLOSH Scenarios

2010-09-07T08:30:00.007-04:00

Yesterday on Facebook I was admiring some graphics posted by Michael Laca, which using computer generated scenarios, depicted SLOSH (Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes) inundation "worst-case" storm surge situations for several locations in Florida. Michael, a veteran hurricane chaser with over 25 years experience, runs the website TROPMET.COM, and after seeing these startling graphics my interest was immediately sparked to see what would happen "if" a major hurricane barreled into a northeast location from New Jersey to Cape Cod, including New York City. Michael gladly helped me out and produced the SLOSH inundation maps below using the MOM (Maximum Of Maximum) algorithm for each surge basin, which is agnostic of a specific track.

A couple things to note: The SLOSH analysis typically considers hypothetical scenarios – from 10 different directions, four forward speeds, five intensities and 10 to 20 landfall points within a basin, resulting in anywhere from 2,000 to 4,000 combinations of storm scenarios. The program then analyzes each combination and generates a MEOW (Maximum Envelope of Water) for all variations of similar scenarios (such as a category 4, moving northwest at 15 mph, making landfall at 20 different locations within the basin), and then retains the highest surge value at each grid square. The MOM then preserves each of the highest values from each MEOW, resulting in a graphic depicting the highest surge value for any point within the basin across all possible combinations of storms.

So what does that all mean? The maps below show the worst-case scenario at any one point when you consider ALL possible scenarios. That does not mean that for one specific storm scenario, that all areas shown in these maps will experience a "worst-case" surge, since each storm's size, strength, and forward speed will dramatically change the inundation at any particular location. It should also be stressed that these maps are only intended as guidance and should not be used to make decisions on specific evacuations always listen to emergency management and local officials when it comes to an actual event.

Worst case scenario for Manhattan / Hudson River, New York. Exceptionally high surge values of 30–32 feet above MSL (Mean Sea Level) can be expected in several locations, with widespread inundations between 20–25 feet experienced elsewhere.

Worst case scenario for Long Island, New York. Exceptionally high and widespread surge values of 30–33 feet above MSL can be expected along Atlantic facing coastal locations, with extensive inundations between 15–20 feet experienced elsewhere.

Worst case scenario for western Long Island, New York. Exceptionally high and widespread surge values of 30–33 feet above MSL can be expected along Atlantic facing coastal locations, with extensive inundations between 15–20 feet experienced elsewhere.

Worst case scenario for New Jersey / Delaware Bay. Highest surge values of 18–20 feet above MSL can be expected in several locations, with extensive inundations between 10–15 feet experienced elsewhere.

Worst case scenario for Providence, Rhode Island / Cape Cod, Massachusetts. Extremely high surge values of 35–39 feet above MSL can be expected in isolated locations at the heads of rivers and bays, with widespread inundations between 15–20 feet experienced elsewhere.

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The Weathervein - Episode 12

2010-09-06T17:45:00.000-04:00

Tropical Storm Hermine is spinning up and strengthening in the southwest Gulf of Mexico and could become a minimal hurricane prior to landfall in extreme northeast Mexico or far southeast Texas late tonight. Meanwhile, the low pressure in the central Atlantic associated with former Tropical Storm Gaston will soon be approaching the northern Leeward Islands and it's future track and intensity remain questionable. Find out what's going on with these systems, what else might be brewing in the Atlantic, and hear a recap of Devin's Hurricane [Tropical Storm] Earl chase in Cape Cod, Massachusetts in this episode of The Weathervein!

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Hurricane Earl: Storm Chase Recap!

2010-09-05T13:14:00.016-04:00

September 2–3, 2010 – Chatham, Massachusetts, Cape Cod

Well, I am back from chasing Hurricane Earl in Chatham, Massachusetts on the far southeast tip of Cape Cod. Despite Earl's weakened state, having made its closest approach as a strong tropical storm, the experience was unforgettable!

I began tracking Earl the moment it emerged from the west coast of Africa into the Atlantic Ocean as a well-defined tropical wave which became Tropical Depression #7 on August 25, and later that day became Tropical Storm Earl. Fighting shear and the outflow from major Hurricane Danielle, Earl was slow to get its act together, but as it approached the northern Leeward Islands on August 29, it was game on!

Earl became a monster category 4 hurricane on August 30 and fluctuated in intensity while remaining a major hurricane as it moved northwestward towards the mid-Atlantic coast of the United States. Earl weakened to a category 2 hurricane as it neared the North Carolina coast and further weakened to a strong tropical storm as it neared Cape Cod and surrounding islands.

Earl's forecast sure was tricky, but ya know... I have give it up for the computer models! They handled this storm extremely well, maintaining convergence for days on a "just offshore" scenario. Many folks speculated that Earl could or would make landfall on the North Carolina coast or Cape Cod (or even Long Island), but the evidence available showed otherwise. I am not a professional forecaster, but I do have common sense to believe scientific evidence, and it is that evidence that eventually made this forecast pan out as expected.

I want to 'shout out' to my good friend Greg Nordstrom who called the scenario that panned out well in advance of it doing so. Greg maintained the offshore path in his forecasts for a good week prior to it taking place and he even nailed the mileage the center of circulation would track in it's closest approach to the U.S. coastline. I also need to shout out to Greg in thanking him for staying in touch with me while on my chase, providing constant updates on Earl's current location and intensity at the time. His input helped put me in the closest position on the Cape to witness the 'worst' (or 'best') of the storm in a mindful, safe manner.

That said, here's a video and some photos that I captured during the chase...

I hope you all enjoyed this recap and footage. Before I conclude I'd like to highlight a couple of my 'personal highs' of the chase...

While on the beach in Chatham I stumbled upon (okay, I admit there was a bit of stalking involved) The Weather's Channel's Paul Goodloe who was kind enough to speak with me for a bit and even took took the time to suggest some great places to ride out the storm. His advice was great and as you saw above – we captured some great shots!

I was also granted a surprise interview with CBS News' Randall Pinkston who was was being followed by a cameraman filming their own coverage of the storm. Randall nicely asked what I was doing there, riding out the storm!? I explained I was chasing Earl and within seconds I had a camera on me and a microphone pointed towards my face... and the result – this interview!

Well there you have it! I look forward to bringing you even more from a bigger, stronger storm in weeks to come!

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The Weathervein - Episode 11

2010-09-02T08:50:00.001-04:00

Hurricane Earl is about to make his presence known on the east coast! How much of an impact will Earl bring? Well, that is in his hands now, but if you are in the Outer Banks of North Carolina or Cape Cod, Massachusetts and outlying islands, you can expect to feel the brunt of this hurricane as it inches near and passes dangerously close offshore. Find out in this episode of The Weathervein exactly who will be affected by Earl, what the conditions could be like in your area, and what you need to do to prepare NOW!

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InterAcademy Council Calls for Beefed-Up IPCC

2010-08-31T08:30:00.001-04:00

In light of recent bluffs by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the InterAcademy Council representing the world's science academies, is recommending the Panel beefs-up its management infrastructure as well as add various reforms for reviewing science, managing potential conflicts of interest and injecting fresh blood into their operations.

The recommendation, which is being made in an effort to re-affirm the integrity and validity of the IPCC's work while recognizing areas for improvement, is sighted in a report presented to the Panel and calls for the development of rigorous conflict of interest policy. If the recommendation is accepted and implemented, the future IPCC would be overseen by a new executive committee, which will include oversight from outside the IPCC, including an executive director serving a limited one six-year term.

Learn more here.

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The Weathervein - Episode 10

2010-08-30T19:40:00.002-04:00

Hurricane Earl strengthened today into a category 4 storm and could strengthen further over the next day or so as it heads towards the United States east coast. In this episode of The Weathervein, Devin and Greg talk about the future track of Earl, the potential impacts along the east coast, and who might see the strongest winds and rain as Earl spirals offshore during the next few days. If you're in coastal North Carolina and/or New England, i.e. Cape Hatteras and Cape Cod, make sure you watch this!

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The Weathervein - Episode 9

2010-08-29T18:07:00.001-04:00

Today marks the fifth anniversary of Hurricane Katrina, and in this episode of The Weathervein Greg shares his experience chasing the monstrous cyclone as it barreled into the Mississippi coastline on August 29, 2005. We'll also cover Hurricane Danielle which is racing off into the north Atlantic, while Hurricane Earl gathers strength as it approaches the northern Leeward Islands and heads towards the United States before its likely curve out to sea. Beyond Earl we still have 97L in the central Atlantic which continues to try and organize into a tropical cyclone. Will it become Fiona and could it be our next big threat? Find out here!

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NEQ Friday Review, V.17

2010-08-27T07:33:00.000-04:00

This past week marked the 18th anniversary of Hurricane Andrew's landfall in south Florida, so what better time to look back on this destructive category 5 storm than today's NEQ Friday Review!?

What I am about to share with you is an excerpt from a blog post by Greg Nordstrom, which he wrote two years ago on Andrew's 16th anniversary. As most know by now, Greg is a good friend of mine, my co-host of The Weathervein, as well as blogger of EYE OF THE STORM. Greg is also a professional storm chase and instructor of meteorology at Mississippi State University. I'll be joining Greg at some point this hurricane season for the big chase! Where that is and when it happens is to be determined.

Now back to Hurricane Andrew...

Hurricane Andrew made it's first of two U.S. landfalls (the second along the central Louisiana coast) on August 24, 1992 just south of Miami, Florida near Homestead at around 5:00 a.m., and was the third and last category 5 storm to hit the United States. At the time Andrew was thought to be a strong category 4 with sustained winds of 145 mph, but 12 years later reanalysis concluded that Andrew was a category 5 with sustained winds of 165 mph at the time of landfall.

Andrew's highest recorded surface wind gust was observed at 177 mph about one mile inland in Perrine, Florida, with the highest recorded storm surge of 16.9 feet recorded on SW 184th street.

To this date Andrew made U.S. landfalling hurricane history as the fourth strongest hurricane by pressure at 922mb (27.23"). The only storms stronger than Andrew at landfall were Katrina at 920mb, Camille at 909mb, and The Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 at 892mb.

At the time, Hurricane Andrew also was the costliest landfalling hurricane ever in the U.S., but now ranks second to Hurricane Katrina. However, despite it's legacy Andrew actually could have been a lot worse.... How, you ask?

Well, if Hurricane Andrew would have made landfall about 30 miles north, Miami beach and South Beach would have been completely annihilated. It would have been especially worse today, as Miami and South Florida in general doubled in size since 1992. It's a disaster in the making and the proof is in the history...

In 1926 Miami took a direct hit from a strong 935mb category 4 hurricane at 150 mph (estimated) and the city was completely destroyed. Can you imagine what Miami would look like today if another 1926 hurricane hit? The damage would be well over $500 billion and the loss of life would be much higher than Katrina at 3,000+.

Well, there you have it... Andrew's legacy will always live on as a benchmark hurricane and one of the most significant and catastrophic weather events to unfold on U.S soil. Luckily there are no Andrew's on the horizon, but the 2010 hurricane season is still young and it could happen again – maybe not this year and maybe not next – but it will happen again, and it could be even worse!

Have a great weekend and remember, the five-year anniversary of Hurricane Katrina is this Sunday, August 29!

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The Weathervein - Episode 8

2010-08-26T19:26:00.003-04:00

Category 2 Danielle is nearing major hurricane status while Tropical Storm Earl continues to gather strength. Meanwhile, a tropical wave designated 97L bears watching and could become TD #8 and later a tropical storm or even hurricane by the name of Fiona. Beyond these systems it's no rest for the weary in the east Atlantic as the African wave train continues to chug along! Where are these storms going and could we expect them take the same fishy route as the late Colin and current Hurricane Danielle? What does the reliable statistical guidance say? Find out here in this episode of The Weathervein!

Note: Some technical issues while recording make it difficult to hear Devin. Turn up volume for best quality.

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Cityscapes Could Impact Hurricane's Path, Study Says

2010-08-26T08:30:00.005-04:00

A team of researchers at the University of Hong Kong developed a computer model to track the movement of a simulated tropical cyclone traveling across varying terrain, and found that big cities such as New York, Miami, New Orleans and Houston could act as magnets for hurricane landfalls.

How so? The results of the research, which will soon be published in the Journal of Geophysical Research, indicates that tropical cyclones tend to be attracted towards areas of higher friction. Therefore rough areas of land, including city buildings and naturally jagged land cover might actually attract what would ordinarily be passer-by hurricanes.

To obtain that conclusion the team modeled the effects that different terrain has on these storms to determine how cities that lie in the path of a hurricane change the storm's motion. They found that rough cityscapes (and forests alike) trap and compresses air, forcing it up into the atmosphere, which translates to added energy in the storm and a pulling of the center of circulation towards the rough region. Their model suggests that a city can cause a hurricane to swerve from its predicted path by as much as 20 miles.

Interesting, but not a concept I haven't heard before. Just look at that last-minute easterly jog of Charley right before landfall in southwest Florida! Friction all the way!

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The Weathervein - Episode 7

2010-08-24T21:13:00.002-04:00

Danielle strengthened into a category 2 hurricane last night, and just as quick as it intensified, it also rapidly weakened and is now once again, a tropical storm. What does the future hold for Danielle and is there a new storm brewing in her wake? Could we be looking at not one, but two hurricanes over the next few days? Find out in this episode of The Weathervein as Devin and Greg update you on the state of the tropics as well as pay tribute to Hurricane Andrew on its 18th anniversary!

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CESM: New Community Earth System Climate Model

2010-08-23T10:33:00.005-04:00

The National Center for Atmospheric Research's (NCAR) new Community Earth System Model (CESM) is now able to study climate change in far more detail, and it will soon be employed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to assess the state of so called "global warming."

One of about a dozen climate models worldwide that can be used to simulate the many components of Earth's climate system, CESM should help answer some critical questions regarding the state of the climate, including:

What impact will warming temperatures have on the massive ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica?
How will patterns in the ocean and atmosphere affect regional climate in coming decades?
How will climate change influence the severity and frequency of tropical cyclones, including hurricanes?
What are the effects of tiny airborne particles, known as aerosols, on clouds and temperatures?

So how does it work?

The CESM builds on the original Community Climate System Model and enables scientists to gain a broader picture of Earth's climate system by incorporating more influences. Using the CESM, researchers can now:

Simulate the interaction of marine ecosystems with greenhouse gases
Assess the climatic influence of ozone, dust, and other atmospheric chemicals
Gain a better understanding of the cycling of carbon through the atmosphere, oceans, and land surfaces
Review the influence of greenhouse gases on the upper atmosphere
Pursue a much wider variety of applications, including studies of air quality and biogeochemical feedback mechanisms

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The Weathervein - Episode 6

2010-08-22T19:19:00.001-04:00

Tropical Depression # 6 was upgraded earlier today to Tropical Storm Danielle, and during the next 48 hours the storm could become a hurricane – and beyond that possibly the first major hurricane of the season! Where is Danielle going and how strong a storm might she become? Find out in this episode of The Weathervein, as Devin and Greg touch on Danielle and what might be brewing in her wake.

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NEQ Friday Review, V.16

2010-08-20T08:30:00.012-04:00

The Northeast Quadrant's 200th Post

So here I am writing my 200th blog post – and to celebrate the occasion today's NEQ Friday Review takes a look back at my top 10 posts of 2010!

So many exciting events have unfolded since the launch for The Northeast Quadrant on New Year's weekend, and so much has been covered through a variety of posts focusing on ever-changing weather patterns, the evolution of dynamic storm systems, the controversy surrounding climate change; and its effects on our cities, nation and the world, and more! But in my eyes, nothing has been more fun than reporting on the following (in date order):

1.) Meanwhile, 70 Million Years Ago... (January 20)
Last night after watching The History Channel's new series How the Earth was Made, I was completely inspired, educated and totally marveled by the immense power this planet’s geological forces carry. The episode highlighted Mount Everest, but more vastly the Himalayan Mountain range and how this super-sized chain of sky-scraping peaks, stretching across six Asian countries, came to life.

2.) Totally Cool Utah Weather Facts! (January 28)
What better way to learn more about Utah's weather than to ask the locals? And did you know a very famous "weather" movie was filmed here in the Beehive State? Check out this video blog post and learn a little more about Utah's climate, its record highs and lows, its average and exceedingly average snowfall, and even its rare tornadic history!

3.) Big Blizzard in the Big Apple - A Video Journal (February 10)
A major blizzard affected a large portion of the country today, from the mid-west to the east coast. Direct from New York City, we recorded all day in the storm and posted the videos here and on our Facebook Fan Page. The evening videos as compared to the ones shot earlier in the day really show the rapid development of the Nor'easter and the deteriorating conditions associated with the blizzard.

4a.) Snowicane Breaks Records in NYC! (February 26)
The National Weather Service in New York City has updated its record books once again! Yesterday's snowfall also broke daily records for that day particularly. 11.5 inches of snow fell yesterday alone, breaking the old record of 8.4 inches set in 1991. At 21 inches this snowstorm is now tied for the third heaviest for New York City.

4b.) Snowicane Exceeds Expectations and Proves Historic (February 26)
Late this afternoon I decided to go back out into the Snowicane and snap some more photos, and of all those that I took, I think there are two that perfectly capture the intensity of the storm. Check out these shots looking crosstown from the east side to the west side of Manhattan (looking down 42nd Street).

5.) Man vs. Nature: Interview with a Forensic Meteorologist (March 4)
As many of you already heard, earlier this week I had the chance to interview AccuWeather Forensic Meteorologist, Steve Wistar. From the basics of forensic meteorology to the intricate weather details that help solve civil and criminal legal cases, we had a highly informative and instructive conversation, and I’m excited to share what I learned.

6.) Daylight Savings Nor'easter (March 13)
The Mid-Atlantic and Northeast is once again taking a beating from a major coastal storm! The storm, which I am now dubbing the "Daylight Savings Nor'easter," began Friday morning and promises to deliver wind and rain through Monday. That's right, rain! Not snow this time! Temperatures have warmed since the last Nor'easter (the Snowicane) and much of the area is now looking at a heavy, wind-driven rain, as opposed to the heavy blizzard snows that have dumped record snowfall across the area since late last year.

7.) Interview with ‘America’s Wittiest Weatherman’ (March 18)
I recently had the pleasure of speaking with Elliot Abrams, senior vice-president and chief forecaster for AccuWeather. Billed on the Accuweather.com web site as ‘America’s Wittiest Weatherman,’ Elliot joined the State College, PA-based weather broadcasting outlet in 1967, and was a co-founder of their radio service in 1971. Elliot is himself a blogger, publishing northeastern weather-related posts on Accuweather.com. His voice can also be heard real-time on some of the many radio news stations throughout the region.

8.) Paul Kocin: The Authority in Northeast Winter Weather (March 31)
I recently had the opportunity to go one-on-one with meteorologist and winter weather expert, Paul Kocin. Paul, a Long Island native and resident of The Northeast Quadrant, is unquestionably the authority when it comes to forecasting nor’easters and analyzing their impact throughout the region.

9.) A Big Apple Hurricane? (July 19)
It's been over a hundred years since a hurricane directly hit New York City and luck could be running out for a metropolis that never ruminates about such natural disasters. According to The Weather Channel, New York City is the number two most vulnerable U.S. city to be hit by a major hurricane, which would prove absolutely devastating! Factors like population density, amount of property near coastal areas and the length of time since the last major hurricane support the city's vulnerability.

10a.) Tornado Warning for The Big Apple! (July 24)
Last night a round of severe weather took aim on the New York City metro area. At around 8:00 p.m. a big-time supercell thunderstorm developed in northwest New Jersey and marched its way southeastward right towards the Big Apple, prompting a string of severe thunderstorm warnings and tornado warnings for the entire city!

10b.) On The Weather Channel! (July 24)
Earlier today I published a blog post (see below) which featured a brief tale of the storms that moved through the New York City area last night. Well, it gets even better! This morning I was contacted by The Weather Channel, who after viewing my videos wanted to share them on the air, online at weather.com, on weather mobile and possibly on NBC, etc.

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Global Warming vs. Climate Change: What's the Difference?

2010-08-19T08:30:00.003-04:00

Here we go again with the 'global warming'/'climate change' talk – but it just seems unavoidable these days. Continuous blog posts here on The Northeast Quadrant touch on recent extreme weather events that may or may not be linked to the man-made or not so man-made phenomenon (I personally believe it's cyclical), and so the coverage continues today.

I am totally convinced news sources are plowing through The Northeast Quadrant because I'm telling ya – each time I write about a story it goes without fail that I find a similar story on a website a few days later. OK, enough inflating my own head...

I recently read on another blog, "because of human-fueled 'global warming,' extreme weather events are occurring with greater frequency, and in many cases with greater intensity.” Naturally, I cringed beyond belief!

The increasing frequency of record and extreme events does appear to be a signal of a changing climate. And no matter the source, more and more extremes are making us think twice, and that includes cautious climate scientists who, like me, won’t link a single weather event to 'global warming' with any certainty. Sure the first six months of 2010 were the warmest on record, but evidence of global warming comes from long-term trends – not short-term, recent extreme weather events.

So what is this all tied to? Is it really 'global warming?' Or is it 'climate change?' I'll answer that as if it's you asking me...

I say it's 'climate change.' What's the difference? 'Global warming,' while obvious, in my opinion points to a long-term drastic issue that we fear fighting. 'Climate change,' on the other hand, is just evident. It is what it is – the climate is clearly 'changing' and although I totally adore Al Gore, I truly believe mankind is not in control of the Earth’s environment. I do truly believe the conditions we are seeing now are cyclical and just because they might (or might not) be, it does not negate its sensitivity, but it does support that the Earth naturally changes its temperature.

So what backs my claim? Look at the big picture – that's all I'm saying. I am not denying we are in a time of [climate] change. But I'm just not sold on the man-made process many are hinting at.

Perhaps I had to rant through this post to get that point across – but I am interested in your thoughts. Leave comments here or on the facebook fan page.

Stay tuned tomorrow for the 200th post from The Northeast Quadrant! Thanks for following!

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Global Extremities of Summer 2010

2010-08-17T08:40:00.004-04:00

What a summer it has been! From heat waves to floods and from drought to wildfires and even severe weather outbreaks, extreme weather has been the rule. Just looking back at recent blog posts here on The Northeast Quadrant, it seems that at least once a week a story gets posted about rare and record-breaking weather conditions!

Most recently, monsoon flooding has been wreaking havoc in Pakistan and an extreme heat wave has been fueling wildfires and creating health hazards in Russia, and the National Center for Atmospheric Research agrees that although this time of year always brings treacherous weather to the northern hemisphere, conditions have been quite exceptional – attributing the intense monsoons to La Niña, which typically brings wetter conditions to Asia. Other contributing factors noted are the strong ridge above Pakistan that is blocking the moisture from circulating out of the region as well as the infamous climate change and the long-term warming of the oceans and the atmosphere. In this case, because the Indian Ocean is so warm it's further fueling the heavy rain.

The extreme events seen this summer are likely connected to each other by the currents in the atmosphere. Those currents are responsible for the unusual weather conditions we've been experiencing here in the United States, as well as the extreme heat and drought that has plagued Russia for most of the summer. However, normal seasonal changes should bring some relief to both regions soon.

Some climate-change skeptics (myself included) argue there is not enough information about weather patterns over long periods of history to draw conclusions about extreme weather events and climate change. I personally think it's all natural and cyclical.

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Could A Greener Ocean Mean More Hurricanes?

2010-08-16T08:30:00.000-04:00

Last week Discovery News posted a story about how colossal blooms of plankton in tropical oceans could potentially effect hurricane development. The story recaps a study that will soon be released in the journal, Geophysical Research Letters.

According to scientists who worked on the "Blue Ocean" experimental study, plankton have the ability to determine whether clusters of tropical thunderstorms spin up into monster hurricanes. How so? Well, plankton's tiny photosynthetic bodies tint blue ocean green with chlorophyll. Green water traps light and heat from the sun shallow ocean water, which results in greater sea surface temperatures which as we know, makes for prime hurricane-forming conditions.

In using a computer simulation of a lifeless ocean, the scientists found that a blue ocean not containing plankton's chlorophyll laden specimen reduces typhoons in the northwest Pacific by 70 percent. What few storms did form in the simulation hugged the equator, the only area of water warm enough to sustain them.

However, it is noted that because it takes time for the sun's heat to propagate through the ocean and have its full effect on the atmosphere, it likely takes several high- or low-plankton years to change the course and intensity of storms significantly.

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The Weathervein - Episode 5

2010-08-15T22:26:00.002-04:00

The remnant low of Tropical Depression # 5 is about to re-emerge into the Gulf of Mexico and could once again threaten the Louisiana coastline over the next day or so. The organizing and strengthening system cold even become Tropical Storm [or hurricane] Danielle. For the latest on the developing tropical weather situation, check out this episode of The Weathervein!

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The Weathervein - Episode 4

2010-08-14T08:59:00.002-04:00

This episode of The Weathervein was filmed yesterday, Friday the 13th, on the sixth anniversary of category 4 Hurricane Charley's landfall in southwest Florida, which left in its wake the largest path of destruction since Andrew in '92. The episode touches on Charley's legacy, as well as the remnant low of Tropical Depression # 5, and a briefing on the state of the tropics. Don't miss it!

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NEQ Friday Review, V.15

2010-08-13T08:30:00.000-04:00

There continues to be a lot of speculation as to whether or not the predictions for an extreme hurricane season will validate. I continue to firmly argue they will, and that until we are in November and the season is nearly over, there is no room for disagreement.

Some of the nastiest, most high-impact seasons did not get going until September, and I really think this season will do the same. In 2001 the first hurricane did not even form until the second week of September – and then there ended up being a total of nine hurricanes that season! Just goes to show you...

I continue to encourage the hurricane season pessimists out there to hold their breath and stop mocking and bashing the experts who have far more experience predicting hurricanes than the spectators who are quick to call them out.

Now on a more reminiscent note from hurricanes past, this week’s NEQ Friday Review will look back at a historic northeastern hurricane through the eyes of a fan of The Northeast Quadrant. Here, Nick Panico, a secondary education science teacher from Suffolk County, Long Island, New York, tells his story of Hurricane Gloria from September 1985.

"I remember Hurricane Gloria even though I was only eight and a half years old at the time. My family was living in Mastic Beach, which is a small peninsula surrounded by the Atlantic to the South and the Bay to the east and west, in Suffolk County, Long Island. We were told to evacuate on the morning of September 25, 1985 because our house was located about .6 of a mile just north of the Bay.

Gloria was hyped up to be the Mega-Storm or Storm of the Century because it was a category 4 hurricane just south of North Carolina. Then, what normally saves New England, actually took place. Gloria came north, clipped the Outer Banks of North Carolina and weakened, later arriving in Long Island only as a category 1. Sources argue the hurricane’s true strength upon landfall, but I know the damage I saw would verify a category 1 storm. There was no electricity for 10 days so in the eyes of many, Gloria was considered a major hurricane.

Speaking of major hurricanes, I had recalled folks saying something about 1938, even thought I had no clue as to what they were talking about since I was so young. I later learned an intense hurricane barreled through the very soil I lived on, causing extensive damage and killing hundreds. After learning more about it I began my own extensive research on the 1938 Long Island Express.

Back to Gloria – the population at the time Gloria made landfall on Long Island was no way near as great as it is now. If a hurricane of Gloria’s strength made landfall now, the effect would be absolutely devastating. Besides the risk of extreme flooding from both tropical rains and that from storm surge, the increase in development over the last 20 years would lead to significant structural damage – to homes, businesses, and personal and public property alike. Agriculture would be greatly affected – the loss of trees and damage to farmland and vineyards that line Long Island’s north shore could suffer an extreme loss. Seeing what happens to these areas during a winter nor’easter, it is difficult to imagine what would happen if even a category 1 storm rolled through.”

Now you might be wondering why I am sharing Nick’s story. Well, if you’ve been keeping up with The Northeast Quadrant you know by now that the northeast is overdue for a hurricane landfall, and perhaps this year will be the year it happens.

I mentioned last week that the Atlantic is prime and the pattern set up now very much favors tropical cyclone activity to reach coastlines from the Gulf to the northeast. Experts have said areas from North Carolina to Maine have a chance nearly equal to that of Florida and the Gulf coast in being hit with a hurricane. It’s happened before, and it will happen again.

Have a great weekend and be hurricane ready!

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Russia Heat Wave is OUT OF CONTROL!

2010-08-10T09:57:00.003-04:00

An insanely intense heat wave has plagued Russia for over one month now and it shows very little sign of letting up. Moscow has experienced at least 26 days in a row with temperatures exceeding 86 degrees Fahrenheit, and those conditions are expected to continue for at least the next several days.

The heat has caused numerous wildfires to break out which has polluted the stagnant air mass beyond control, and in recent days the carbon monoxide count in Moscow peaked at six times more than acceptable levels and record numbers of people are leaving the city to escape the harmful conditions.

For those unfortunate to not escape, the situation is dire. An estimated 5,000 people have already died from heat-related illness in Moscow alone. Local authorities report the daily mortality rate in the city has doubled and morgues are overflowing amid an acrid smog caused by the worst heatwave in Russia's thousand-year history.

According to Jeff Masters of Weather Underground, the current heat wave in Russia has been more intense than the infamous European heat wave of 2003, which killed an estimated 40,000 people. Masters also reports that the fires are the worst since 1972, when massive forest and peat bog fires burned an area of 100,000 square km and killed at 104 people in the Moscow region alone. Smoke from the current fires spans a region over 3,000 km (1,860 miles) from east to west, approximately the distance from San Francisco to Chicago.

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Analyzing Leh's Deadly Cloudburst

2010-08-09T08:30:00.000-04:00

A devastating extreme weather event unfolded in the Leh district of Kashmir, India on Friday when a cloudburst produced a deluge of rain causing deadly flash floods and damaging mudslides. The epic event washed away government offices, paramilitary camps and residential homes; and claimed nearly 200 lives, injuring thousands and over 500 are still reported missing.

Leh is known as a 'high altitude desert' region and a heavy downpour is a rare occurrence. In trying to gain a better understanding of the formation of the cloudburst and why it produced such an intense rainfall rate, a physics team from the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, near New Delhi, will use an atmospheric supercomputer model to mimic the conditions 24 hours prior to the cloudburst that occurred between 12:30 a.m. – 1:30 a.m. on Friday.

In doing so they will simulate the sequence of events that gave rise to the colossal cloud that collapsed over the typically arid village. They will feed their supercomputer an enormous amount of data – temperature, wind and humidity, and solar radiation – and allow it to churn the numbers using a set of mathematical equations that dictate how the atmosphere will behave over time.

Weather observations from the past have indicated that cloudbursts usually occur during the monsoon – mainly in August – and over the western Himalayan region. The rain from a cloudburst, which descends from very high clouds, has a fall rate equal to or greater than 3.94 inches per hour. Most cloudbursts come from convective, cumulonimbus clouds that form thunderstorms. The extent of damage that a cloudburst could cause depends heavily on the terrain that is receiving the downpour.

The exact measurement of rain that fell during the cloudburst over Leh is still not available. But it is believed that nearly two inches of rain fell in minutes, continuing for a good thirty.

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NEQ Friday Review, V.14

2010-08-06T08:30:00.006-04:00

The six costliest hurricanes in United States history have all occurred since 1992, with five of the six happening since 2004 – Hurricane Katrina in 2005 of course being the worst of all. Most of these storms took place during the month of August.

Speaking of August, we're not even one week into the first peak month of hurricane season, and to many, the season already is being considered a bust. But alas, tropical pessimists hold your breath! After reading today's NEQ Friday Review you might reconsider that thought.

I've been saying for months now it's not all about the numbers this season – it's about impact. The Atlantic is prime and the pattern set up now very much favors tropical cyclone activity to reach coastlines from the Gulf to the northeast. Let's look back at prior seasons with a similar set up...

1933
With 21 storms, the 1933 Atlantic hurricane season was the second most active on record. The season produced several deadly storms and all but one affected land at some point. 19 storms that season made landfall as tropical cyclones, and one as an extratropical storm. Of these, eight tropical storms, including six hurricanes, hit the United States alone, including the Chesapeake Potomac Hurricane, which is considered one of the most severe in history along the mid-Atlantic.

2004
The 2004 Atlantic hurricane season was one of the deadliest and most costly seasons on record. The season produced 16 tropical cyclones, including 15 tropical storms, nine hurricanes and six majors. The most noteworthy storms for the season were the five that made landfall in Florida and Alabama, three of which were majors. Those were Tropical Storm Bonnie and Hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne. What is important to note about this season is that when you compare it to the 2010 season thus far, we are already ahead!

2005
The impact of the 2005 season was widespread and severe to say the least, and conditions this year eerily mirror that of this epic season. A record 28 tropical and subtropical storms formed, of which a record 15 became hurricanes. Of these, seven strengthened into major hurricanes, while five became Category 4 hurricanes and four reached Category 5 strength. The storms of the 2005 season were extraordinarily damaging and were responsible for significant loss of life. The hardest-hit area was the United States Gulf Coast from eastern Texas to the Florida Panhandle. Of the storms that made landfall, five of the season's seven major hurricanes – Dennis, Emily, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma – were responsible for most of the destruction.

Now you might be wondering why I did not include 1992? After all, that was the year category 5 Hurricane Andrew barreled through south Florida and later made a second landfall along the Louisiana coast. Well, 1992 was a pretty quiet year. Sure it only takes one bad hurricane to have huge impacts, such as Andrew did... but the season itself was generally pretty quiet and non-comparable to the set up we have now.

So that's that - remember, it's not about the numbers so put your calculators away. The tropics are about to kick up in full force over the next several weeks so now is the time to brace for impact!

Have a great weekend and be hurricane ready!

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The Weathervein - Episode 3

2010-08-05T09:04:00.001-04:00

Earlier this week Tropical Storm Colin came and went faster than the NHC wrote the first and final advisory, and now the low pressure it left behind is being monitored for regeneration. Meanwhile, hurricane pioneer Dr. Gray updated his forecast, still calling for a very active season! Learn more about it here on The Weathervein!

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Miami Named Florida's Most Vulnerable to Hurricane Winds

2010-08-04T08:30:00.000-04:00

Miami, Florida is known for temperate weather, art deco, nightlife, pristine beaches, culture, shopping, The Golden Girls and... vulnerability.

Vulnerability you ask? According to a new study by researchers at Florida State University, when compared to 12 other cities in the Sunshine State, Miami was rated the most susceptible to damage from fierce winds associated with the strongest of hurricanes.

The study, "Risk of Strong Hurricane Winds to Florida Cities," will be published in the November issue of the American Meteorological Society's Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, and finds that when using a recently developed Hurricane Risk Calculator, extreme wind risk from tropical cyclones varies across the state.

The Hurricane Risk Calculator was formulated on a basis of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean from as far back as 1851, and it factors in monster storms like Andrew and Katrina, to determine how a variety of Florida cities fare in disastrous storms. Among those cities are Tallahassee, Orlando, Fort Meyers, Tampa, Pensacola, Key West, and of course Miami.

Using the Hurricane Risk Calculator, the researchers found that Miami can expect to see winds of 112 mph or stronger – that's a category 3 hurricane – once every 12 years on average. Miami last saw winds of that strength with Hurricane Wilma in 2005. By contrast, Tallahassee, the state's least vulnerable city, can expect to see winds of that speed only once every 500 years.

Learn more about the study and the Hurricane Risk Calculator here.

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Tropical Storm Colin: Charley's Replacement

2010-08-03T12:06:00.008-04:00

Six years ago in August 2004 ferocious category 4 Hurricane Charley barreled into southwest Florida, producing severe damage as it made landfall near Port Charlotte. The strongest U.S. landfalling hurricane (at that time) since Andrew, Charley was retired from the rotating list of Atlantic tropical cyclone names, only to be replaced by Colin in 2010.

Well folks, earlier this morning Tropical Depression # 4 strengthened into Tropical Storm Colin, the third tropical cyclone of the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Tropical Storm Colin is heading in the general direction of the northern Antilles. But what's next? Learn more about Tropical Storm Colin's projected path and find out what else is brewing in the Atlantic Basin, and what it means for the weeks ahead when you tune into this episode of The Weathervein!

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INTRODUCING The Weathervein

2010-08-02T11:21:00.012-04:00

I would like to introduce you to a compelling new online weather video talk show called The Weathervein.

The Weathervein is a collaborative effort between myself, Devin Matthew Toporek, the creator of The Northeast Quadrant, and Greg Nordstorm, creator of the blog, EYE OF THE STORM. The Weathevein offers a 'blood pumping' new look at weather from a personal perspective!

In this first episode of The Weathervein, recorded this past weekend, Devin and Greg introduce you to the show, and also talk about the increase in activity in the tropical Atlantic, as well as look forward to what could be a busy season ahead, both tracking storms and chasing them!

The video is posted below, and I'll continue to post them here on The Northeast Quadrant, but I inivite you today to please follow The Weathervein at http://theweathervein.blogspot.com, and become a fan on Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/theweathervein.

Enjoy, and thank you for following along!

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NEQ Friday Review, V.13

2010-07-30T08:30:00.004-04:00

NOAA released this past week its long-awaited State of the Climate report, confirming an unequivocal pattern of warming dating back 50 years! Today's NEQ Friday Review takes a glimpse into the report which also proves the past decade was the hottest ever recorded!

The State of the Climate report draws on the findings of more than 300 climate scientists from 160 research groups in 48 countries who measured 10 key indicators, including air temperature over land, sea-surface temperature, air temperature over oceans, sea level, ocean heat and humidity. The report states that the relative movement of each of these indicators proves consistent with a warming world and that each decade since the 1980s has been progressively warmer than the last, with an average warming of about one-fifth of a degree Fahrenheit per decade. To draw that conclusion researchers used data collected from over 7,000 diverse sources, such as satellites, weather balloons, weather stations, ships, buoys and field surveys.

I'd have to say that based on these factors global warming is quite undeniable. However, I do think it is important to note that while many believe it is man-made, a majority also believe it is cyclical. Whatever your backing, extreme weather events related to global warming will prevail as long as planet Earth continues on this path. From a future of rising seas to violent storms, and from drought to deluge and frigid to oppressive temperatures, this could be the rule in forecasts to come.

To learn more about the intricacies of the report and its vast importance in our everyday livelihoods and that of our warming planet, visit NOAA's release here.

Have a great weekend!

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PREDICT to Investigate Hurricane Origination and Behavior

2010-07-29T10:15:00.004-04:00

Hurricane formation and movement is now largely tracked by satellites, but a new project set to launch on August 15 hopes to change that!

The project is called PREDICT and stands for the Pre-Depression Investigation of Cloud Systems in the Tropics, and is funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF) with support from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). PREDICT will run for 45 days through September 30 and it is going to study why some tropical thunderstorms grow into the often-deadly hurricanes while many others dissipate.

Flying aboard Gulfstream aircraft, PREDICT researchers will make observations from close proximity, and above, storm systems. In addition to deploying dropsondes – parachute-borne instrument packages, the researchers will use remote sensing and cloud physics instruments to gather data on temperature, humidity, wind speed and direction, and characteristics of ice particles and their nuclei, which may include African dust.

PREDICT will coordinate its effort with two additional concurrent, but independent, missions in the region – one organized by NASA and one run by NOAA. While all three projects have independent objectives, scientists hope that the collective data will paint a more complete picture of a hurricane's life cycle.

Want to learn more? Check out this great video that explains the PREDICT concept from an experts point of view!

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Winter 2010 Rewind: El Niño, NAO Convergence

2010-07-27T09:26:00.011-04:00

This past winter was for many, absolutely epic! The rarest of events for big east coast cities unfolded between December and March, blanketing locations from Washington, DC to New York with record snowfall in the form of fierce blizzards and historic nor'easters.

As winter 2010 concluded I conducted two interviews with seasoned meteorologists having expertise in not only northeastern United States weather, but with nor'easters such as those that plowed through in months prior. In both my interviews with winter weather authority, Paul Kocin; and chief forecaster for AccuWeather, Elliot Abrams; the anomalies of two unique weather patterns converging was mentioned as the likely cause of that winter's wrath. Those anomalies were El Niño, the cyclic warming of the tropical Pacific, and the strong negative phase in a pressure cycle called the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).

Well alas... this week a new study appearing in the journal, Geophysical Research Letters, states that these two weather patterns did indeed converge along the east coast and are both responsible for the historic winter that unfolded. The study was conducted by a team of scientists at Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory who analyzed 60 years of snowfall measurements to conclude that the negative NAO this particular winter made the air colder over the eastern United States, causing more precipitation to fall as snow. El Niño brought even more precipitation to the area, which when interacting with the NAO's presence, led to even more snow.

The last time the NAO experienced a strong negative phase was in the winter of 1995-1996. During that winter the east coast was also hammered with above average snowfall. This winter, the NAO was even more negative – a state that happens less than 1 percent of the time.

It is important to note, however, that while the heavy snow on the east coast dominated headlines this winter, the Great Lakes and western Canada (remember this?) actually saw less snow than usual – typical for an El Niño year. The arctic also experienced warmer weather than usual.

Finally, I'd like to once again showcase this radar rewind, courtesy of AccuWeather.com. You will see 22 major storms that doused the northeast in a four month radar animation from December 1 through March 30. AMAZING!

* Note: This video is best viewed in Firefox, Chrome, Safari or any web browser other than Explorer (go figure) and it's totally worth launching those browsers if you have one of them, because this is just awesomeness!

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Dissecting Sunday's NYC Tornado

2010-07-26T17:00:00.004-04:00

For the third time in as many days, a line of severe storms marched their way through the New York City area on Sunday. For some the storms proved to be the worst of the bunch!

After much speculation from straight line winds, a microburst or even tornado, the National Weather Service (NWS) confirmed on Monday afternoon that it was indeed a tornado that touched down in the Riverdale section of The Bronx on Sunday, July 25 around 3:00 p.m.

After surveying the damage to determine its consistency with a 100 mph EF1 tornado, the NWS storm damage team noted the storms .6-mile path from Palisades Avenue to the intersection of West 254th Street and Riverdale Avenue. The storm moved southeasterly and brought down trees and knocked out power to thousands of customers. While the NWS says seven injuries were reported, there were no deaths.

After blasting through Riverdale, the tornado moved on across Long Island Sound and swept into Nassau and Suffolk Counties.

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On The Weather Channel!

2010-07-24T11:08:00.004-04:00

Earlier today I published a blog post (see below) which featured a brief tale of the storms that moved through the New York City area last night. Well, it gets even better! This morning I was contacted by The Weather Channel, who after viewing my videos wanted to share them on the air, online at weather.com, on weather mobile and possibly on NBC, etc.

I gladly agreed to do on-air interview this morning at around 9:10 a.m. and 9:40 a.m. While these videos are not the greatest quality as they were recorded 'of' the television (not 'on' it), I just had to share!

Enjoy...

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Tornado Warning for The Big Apple!

2010-07-24T08:14:00.007-04:00

Last night a round of severe weather took aim on the New York City metro area. At around 8:00 p.m. a big-time supercell thunderstorm developed in northwest New Jersey and marched its way southeastward right towards the Big Apple, prompting a string of severe thunderstorm warnings and tornado warnings for the entire city!

As the storms neared, I grabbed my video camera and headed right towards The High Line to watch them roll in – and boy was I glad I did. I caught the storm as it exploded right over the city with intense lightning, strong winds, heavy rain and hail!

A most-definite rare weather event for New York City, check out this progression of videos I filmed!

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NEQ Friday Review, V.12

2010-07-23T07:00:00.000-04:00

Severe storms fired up in the northeast U.S. this week, and the furnace kicks back on this weekend!

A string of severe weather wreaked havoc on the northeast United States this week. From isolated to scattered heavy rain and wind, and from hail to even tornadoes and microbursts, this week's NEQ Friday Review looks back at a somewhat unusual stormy week throughout the northeast.

Isolated storms targeting the region nearly each day this week peaked on Monday and Wednesday as severe thunderstorm watch boxes popped up from Washington, DC to northern Maine. Storms developing within the area prompted severe weather warnings for damaging thunderstorms, some containing tornadoes. By weeks end over 200 reports of severe weather were noted, including unconfirmed tornadoes in Connecticut, Massachusetts and Maine.

Stormy weather exited the northeast by Thursday morning as the low pressure affecting the region moved offshore. However, isolated storms are possible again today, and in their wake a BIG warm up this weekend so get ready for it! The heat index on Saturday could reach 115 in some mid-Atlantic and northeast cities!

Enjoy your weekend, and stay cool!

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Extreme Heat Could Become Summer's Norm

2010-07-22T08:30:00.004-04:00

One thing that has definitely been on our minds more than hurricane season this summer is the extreme heat! It seems that not only the United States, but most locations in the northern hemisphere have been enduring unusually hot, sweltering weather.

In the past month a record heat wave in Russia killed five people and prompted the government to call for siestas. High temperatures in the United States killed five seniors in Maryland, four people in Philadelphia, four people in Dallas, and three people in Tennessee. And to boot, recently released data by NASA shows that global temperatures recorded from January through June 2010 were the highest ever!

Well, guess what? It might be time to get used to it and learn how to deal – these conditions could become the norm in years ahead...

A recent study conducted by Stanford University researchers reveals that unbearable and dangerous heat waves like the one we're now experiencing will emerge on a regular basis by 2039. Such heat waves are obviously devastating and have resulted in illness and fatalities, but they have also proved to destroy crops and challenge energy grids.

The group studied the hottest temperatures in the United States from 1950-1999, then fed them through multiple forecasting models that can simulate daily temperatures over the next 30 years. The results concluded that we could see an increase in heat waves like the one occurring now or the kind that swept across Europe in 2003 that caused tens of thousands of fatalities and put enormous stress on major crops. The forecasting models were based on the likely occurrence that carbon dioxide could raise temperatures 1.8°C degrees. The findings mean that to avoid severe heat waves, governments must look at the possibility that even a two degree increase is too much.

In related news, the heat continues! AccuWeather.com is expecting this Saturday, July 24, to feel like the hottest day of the summer so far from New York City south to Raleigh, North Carolina, thanks to not only a massive surge of heat, but also excessive humidity. As if it has not been hot enough already, the heat index on Saturday could reach an excessive and oppressive 115°F!

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Slow Start to Hurricane Season... Violent Storms Still Expected

2010-07-21T09:54:00.005-04:00

It's been a relatively quiet Atlantic hurricane season thus far. Nearly two months in and just one named storm – Hurricane Alex, and a tropical depression – #2, had caught the attention of storm chasers, meteorologists and weather enthusiasts alike.

The slow start has led to the downward revision in named storms this week by Weather Services International (WSI). WSI, a member of The Weather Channel companies, which provides professional on-air weather systems and forecasting tools for television, is now calling for 19 named storms, down from 20 in its June forecast. WSI is maintaining its outlook for 11 hurricanes and 5 majors, which is well above the 1950-2009 averages of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 majors. The company says although it cut its forecast, it still sees an active season with water temperatures and wind conditions conducive to violent storms.

Further, WSI's reliable computer models continue to indicate that the area from the Outer Banks of North Carolina northward to Maine is twice as likely as normal to experience a hurricane this year, and the threat to the Northeast coast this season is on a par with that in Florida and the Gulf coastal states.

My thoughts: Although we've had a pretty quiet start to the hurricane season things are going to begin heating up in a hurry! August through October is expected to be a very active period, painting a much different picture than June and July. Remember, this season is not only about the numbers and intensity, which may or may not meet expectations, but impact! See earlier blog post here.

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A Big Apple Hurricane?

2010-07-19T08:33:00.003-04:00

What if a major hurricane pummeled New York City?

Last week The Weather Channel broadcast the threat of a hurricane hitting the New York City area, and additional local and national news outlets have since picked up the story – and The Northeast Quadrant is no exception!

It's been over a hundred years since a hurricane directly hit New York City and luck could be running out for a metropolis that never ruminates about such natural disasters. According to The Weather Channel, New York City is the number two most vulnerable U.S. city to be hit by a major hurricane, which would prove absolutely devastating! Factors like population density, amount of property near coastal areas and the length of time since the last major hurricane support the city's vulnerability.

New York City is mostly surrounded by water that could flood critical infrastructures during a lengthy hurricane aftermath, and it is populated by several million people, making evacuation a huge challenge.

The 90° angle-shape of the coastline, where the Atlantic Ocean points ominously at New York City, New Jersey and Long Island, makes the Big Apple especially vulnerable to storm surge. A major hurricane hit the New York City area in 1821 and created a storm surge of up to 13 feet and caused the Hudson and East rivers to meet across lower Manhattan. 117 years later that does not bode well for the MTA – New York's transit system which runs the extremely complex subway. Even on a sunny day, nearly 13 million gallons of water are pumped from New York City subways – imagine the submersion of the system if a major hurricane hit! Even a Category 1 or 2 hurricane would require a major evacuation and could cause a lot of damage!

So what about some facts and figures? In early May I blogged about the United States Landfalling Hurricane Probability Project, using New York City as my target area, and I learned that:

There is a 23 percent chance the NYC-area will be hit with a tropical storm or hurricane in 2010 (normal value is 15 percent)
There is a 7 percent chance the NYC-area will be hit with a major hurricane (category 3 or stronger) in 2010 (normal value is 4 percent)
There is a 99.4 percent chance the NYC-area will be hit with a hurricane in the next 50 years
There is a 90 percent chance the NYC-area will be hit with a major hurricane (category 3 or stronger) in the next 50 years.

While it is impossible to predict exactly when and where a hurricane will make landfall, every New Yorker should have a plan. But don't take my word for it! Check out this clip...

A New York City hurricane evacuation map can be downloaded [.pdf] here.

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NEQ Friday Review, V.11

2010-07-16T08:46:00.002-04:00

NYC 2010 (so far) – ‘Extreme’ly Record Setting

If 2010 is any indication of the diversity of seasons the northeast United States experiences, I don’t know what is! But wait, maybe 2010 isn’t a good example – it’s been a year of weather extremes and records, especially for cities like New York. But nonetheless, it’s made for an interesting first seven months of the year and this week’s NEQ Friday Review, takes a look back at the Big Apple’s weather (since that is where I’m blogging from) from January through July – through my eyes, as a storm watcher, blogger and photographer.

After a record-breaking blizzard in late December, New York kicked off the year with a significant snowstorm along Long Island, which I dubbed the “Palindrome Nor’easter,” having occurred on 01-02-2010 (which backwards is configured the same).

After a downright cold, nasty start to January, the polar jet retreated back into Canada, thus allowing a nice mid-January thaw, embraced by many New Yorkers as depicted in this video blog post.

The thaw wouldn’t last long as February approached. The month was literally snow and blizzard extreme! Cities from Washington, DC to New York, including Baltimore, Philadelphia and Wilmington, all saw record-breaking snowfall.

By Wednesday, February 3 snowstorm extravaganza was upon us and the next several weeks looked ominous. As the first week of the month progressed it became more evident a blizzard was to take shape and surely it did just that. But it didn’t stop there! As we moved into the second week of the month another blizzard took shape, smacking the Big Apple with heavy snow and wind, and the storm was epic! However, only a couple weeks would go by before the big daddy “Snowicane” would for nearly three days straight deliver a historical blow to the NYC-metro! Keep reading…

It all came to fruition on February 24 as computer models defined a tricky forecast ahead. A complex storm was developing and NYC sat on the edge of what could be a heavy rain or a crippling blizzard event. Well, by just a few miles (yes, literally only a few) we were in the snow... and boy did it snow! While the city was enduring a raging snowstorm, Nassau County, Long Island was experiencing a heavy, windswept rain spiraling in from the Atlantic – the Snowicane had begun, and just 12 hours into the storm the expected snowfall totals were upped by the hour. The next day the snow continued and with 17” of snow on the ground in 24 hours, we were only half way into the storm, but records were already starting to break! By the end of the storm it proved historic, and as we rounded out the month, it was among the top four greatest snowfalls NYC ever recorded!

March was no quieter as it came in like a lion when NASA’s Terra satellite captured this image of early spring snow cover in the northeast! The first of somewhat warmer-core nor’easters moved onshore near NYC on March 11, which I dubbed the “Daylight Savings Nor'easter.” The storm was so fierce that the constant easterly fetch off the Atlantic brought the ocean onshore and raised wave heights to near 20 feet, while coastal communities experienced damaging hurricane force winds knocking down power and flooding many. And to add to the misery, another major coastal deluge took shape towards the end of the month as the March lion still roared.

Record-heat surged northward in early April, forcing the mercury into the 90s for cities from Washington, DC to New York. The mini heat wave was even responsible for pushing DC’s cherry blossoms into early peak. By the end of the month it was recorded as the warmest April ever!

May and June were relatively calm months, storm-wise... and boy did we deserve it. But by the time the period closed out, more record warmth was recorded and the entire year had thus far been classified as the hottest in history!

July began on a hot note too – a very, very, very hot note! Beginning 4th of July weekend and continuing through the first full week of the month, a massive and oppressive heat wave literally began choking the mid-Atlantic and northeast. By Tuesday, July 6, high temperatures of up to 103 degrees in the New York City area broke or tied ALL records set back in 1999 at ALL National Weather Service climate reporting sites. The Big Apple was literally baking, sizzling and frying, and by Thursday, July 8 the heat wave began winding down, and in its wake shattering over 300 daily weather records across the northeast.

Well, there you have it! An ‘extreme’ly record setting 2010 for not only NYC, but for the entire northeast and mid-Atlantic. What does the rest of the year hold? Time will tell but you can bet more extremes are in store for someone, someplace!

Have a great weekend!

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NEQ Spotlight: Hurricane Alex

2010-07-15T08:35:00.002-04:00

NASA released this week a satellite imagery movie showing the life cycle of Hurricane Alex, the first named storm of the 2010 hurricane season, and the only storm to form during the month of June. The movie was put together by a compilation of GOES-13 captures over the course of two weeks, and is a definitive example of one of the tropical-storm-in-ten which bloom into a hurricane, therefore honoring Hurricane Alex as today’s NEQ Spotlight!

After struggling across hurricane alley as Invest 93L during the last two weeks of June, Tropical Depression # 1, which formed on June 25, managed to strengthen into Tropical Storm Alex on June 26 before making landfall along the coast of Belize. Being downgraded back to a tropical depression before reaching the calm of the Gulf of Mexico, Alex quickly spun back up into a tropical storm and further strengthened into a hurricane on June 29 before making a final landfall in northeast Mexico on July 1.

Hurricane Alex's heavy rainfall flooded towns, created mudslides, caused waterways to overflow and broke records. Sadly, it also proved fatal to at least 30 people.

Here's the amazing GOES-13 video – Enjoy!

You can also downland the movie here.

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Forget the Numbers, Brace for Impact

2010-07-14T10:17:00.004-04:00

Nearly a month and a half into what is expected to be an epic hurricane season, and all we have seen so far is one named storm, Hurricane Alex, and a poorly organized tropical depression. There is barely a thunderstorm to be had in the Atlantic basin this week and a vast layer on dry Saharan dust has limited the hope for activity in the very near term. Despite the slow start and bleak outlook for a storm right now, expectations remain for an active hurricane season.

On average in July, we typically do not see all that many storms. What I think is making this hurricane season seem to fall short of expectations is the need for comparison to 2005, where the month of July was record-breaking – in numbers of storms and storm intensity.

One thing we must note this season is not only the numbers and intensity, which may or may not meet expectations, but impact! The pattern that is set up now very much favors tropical cyclone activity to reach U.S. coastlines from the Gulf to the northeast. In fact, the probability of a storm getting into the Gulf is about 44 percent this year, and normally it's about 30 percent. Additionally, yet another month of record warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Basin was recorded in June – a trend that is likely to continue as we press on towards the peak part of hurricane season, which runs from mid-August through mid-October. Combine these factors with an expected decrease in Saharan dust and low wind shears, trouble could be brewing on the horizon.

Regarding impact as the bigger threat as opposed to high numbers of storms expected this season, check out this perspective from past seasons where the numbers of storms were quite low, but impact was quite high: In 1965, there were only seven named storms, one of which was Betsy, the first billion-dollar hurricane. Another example is Hurricane Andrew in 1992. There were only seven named storms that year as well, but Andrew was the costliest in history until Katrina came along in 2005.

Again, there are no imminent threat areas to discuss in the tropical Atlantic today, and none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. Beyond that, things could get more interesting! Remember, according to NOAA there is still a 70 percent chance of 14 to 23 named storms to develop this season, of which 8 to 14 could be hurricanes, and 3 to 7 becoming majors. With a month and a half behind us and only one named storm, that prediction could allow for a busy few months ahead where we’ll be tracking several storms at the same time!

For now, please stay tuned and be hurricane ready – I think August and September (maybe October too) will have some tricks up its sleeves!

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NASA's GRIP Mission to Study Hurricane Behavior

2010-07-12T13:46:00.003-04:00

NASA is hopping on the hurricane bandwagon and will soon kick off a new mission aimed at getting a better grip on how tropical storms form and develop into [major] hurricanes. The mission is called GRIP and stands for Genesis and Rapid Intensification Process, and it will fly aircraft and unmanned air vehicles (for up to 20 hours straight) into the storms this summer. Grip is expected to provide a sustained, continuous look at hurricane behavior at critical times during their formation and evolution, i.e. how they strengthen, weaken and die.

The hurricane research fleet for GRIP is made up of one Global Hawk UAV, a McDonnell Douglas DC-8 and a Martin WB-57F Canberra. The six-week program, which begins on August 15, is NASA's first major US-based hurricane field campaign since 2001.

The aircraft will carry a total of 15 instruments, ranging from an advanced microwave sounder to dropsondes that take measurements as they fall through the atmosphere to the ocean surface. In order to determine how a tropical cyclone will behave, the instruments will analyze many factors, including cloud droplet and aerosol concentrations, air temperature, wind speed and direction in storms and on the ocean's surface, air pressure, humidity, lightning, aerosols, and water vapor. The data also will validate the observations from space.

The CloudSat spacecraft will provide cloud profiles of storms, which include altitude, temperatures and rainfall intensity.

Several instruments on board NASA's Aqua satellite will provide infrared, visible and microwave data that reveal such factors as temperature, air pressure, precipitation, cloud ice content, convection and sea surface temperatures.

For more information about GRIP, visit: http://www.nasa.gov/grip.

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Study Questions Hurricane Intensity Forecasts

2010-07-12T09:02:00.005-04:00

According to recently published research by the Mathematics Research Centre (CRM) and Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, there is a definite mathematical relation between the number of hurricanes produced in certain parts of the world and the amount of energy they release. The research is now published in the Nature Physics online journal and suggests that the evolution of hurricane intensity will be very difficult to predict and that such forecasts could never be feasible.

The research was concluded from a comprehensive set of data in which the two arms analyzed tropical cyclones that have occurred across the globe between 1945 and 2007. The first conclusion states that a hurricane's dynamics can be the result of a critical process, therefore making it impossible to predict its intensity. The second conclusion is related to the effects of global warming on the behavior of tropical cyclones, stating that the recent increase in activity cannot be explained 'solely' on the basis of climate change.

The final discovery supports the fact that hurricanes follow a precise mathematical formula known as a power-law. The number of hurricanes is inversely proportional to the energy released, except for the highest values of energy, where the relation is suddenly interrupted. In other words, the cut-off point where the power-law does not represent the behavior of hurricanes is influenced by factors such as average sea surface temperature and the El Niño phenomenon.

Pretty interesting stuff! Learn more about the study here.

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NEQ Friday Review, V.10

2010-07-09T07:37:00.001-04:00

You didn't think this week's NEQ Friday Review would be about anything other than this past week's heatwave... did you?!

As pretty much the entire world is aware by now, a massive heatwave engulfed the northeast and mid-Atlantic United States this past week. The heatwave generally kicked off on Sunday, July 4 and it was not until yesterday, Thursday, July 8 that it began winding down. In its wake the heatwave shattered and tied an enormous amount of daily temperature records, including 33 on Monday, 131 on Tuesday and as many as 151 on Wednesday.

Sure heatwaves have plagued the region in years past, and even in 2010 alone some U.S. cities have already experienced similar waves, but this one was pretty special, and dare I say, could actually be repeated again before the summer is over. Why so special? Just check out these readings...

	Sun. 7/4	Mon. 7/5	Tues. 7/6	Wed. 7/7	Thurs. 7/8
New York (Central Park)	96°	99°	103°	100°	88°
Newark (EWR Airport)	101°	102°	103°	101°	86°
Philadelphia (PHL Airport)	96°	98°	102°	103°	89°
Baltimore (BWI Airport)	98°	100°	105°	101°	93°
Washington, DC (DCA Airport)	94°	99°	102°	102°	93°

What a week it was! A cool down is in store this weekend but temperatures are still expected to be hot by many standards. Expect lots of upper 80s and lower 90s... but hey, I guess it'll feel better than it did this past week. And remember, with such a hot, dry air mass in place, the next big concern for the remainder of the summer could be drought.

2010 is definitely shaping up to be record-breaking and memorable by many weather extremes!

Enjoy your weekend, and stay cool!

The Inexact Science of Tropical Forecasting

2010-07-08T08:44:00.004-04:00

A recently published article in the Brownsville (Texas) Herald yielded evidence to the inexact science of tropical weather forecasting. The article caught my attention because tropical forecasts are often times frustrating for many as they are probably one of the most erratic predictions meteorologists deal with, and because the story comes from a news outlet in a region that recently dealt with the aberrant forecasts of Hurricane Alex.

Despite the fact that tropical forecasting has not changed much in the last 20 years, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is improving its ability to forecast storm intensity and tracks through its Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP). The Project aims to reduce the average errors of hurricane track and intensity forecasts by 20 percent within five years and 50 percent in 10 years with a forecast period out to seven days. The NHC will do so through the development of advanced hurricane models, data assimilation systems and through the optimal use of real observations.

Using regional data in the Brownsville area, the NHC is now studying six tropical cyclones — Tropical Storm Beryl in 2000, Tropical Storm Bertha in 2002, Hurricane Erika in 2003, Hurricane Emily in 2005, Hurricane Dolly in 2008 and last week’s Hurricane Alex.

Speaking of difficult forecasting, what better time than now to call attention to one of my most valued tropical forecasting and analysis resources – a blog called Eye of the Storm, written by meteorologist and storm chaser, Greg Nordstrom. I've been learning quite a bit from Greg and he said it best himself in his post, Tropics = TOUGH!, regarding system 96L (now Tropical Depression #2):

"This was one complex situation, and makes forecasting such a challenge... 96L has completely split, as the low-level center heads toward central Texas, and the mid-level center heads toward northern Mexico! This is a prime example why forecasting the tropics is extremely difficult!"

I encourage you all to follow Greg's blog at http://ldctstormchaser.blogspot.com, and be sure to keep close tabs on both The Northeast Quadrant and Eye of the Storm as I join Greg this hurricane season for the ultimate hurricane chase! You won't want to miss the footage!

And if you have not done so already, check out AccuWeather's exclusive video, Social Media's Influence on Storm Chasing, featuring both Greg and me as AccuWeather looks in-depth at how the ease of today's communication impacts your every day weather and news broadcasts.

Enjoy!

Big Apple Baking, Sizzling, Frying...

2010-07-07T10:20:00.009-04:00

The mid-Atlantic and northeast United States is well into the fourth day of a historic heatwave and yesterday, Tuesday, July 6, high temperatures of up to 103 degrees in the New York City area broke or tied ALL records set back in 1999 at ALL National Weather Service (NWS) climate reporting sites: JFK (JFK Airport - Queens), LGA (La Guardia Airport - Queens), EWR (Newark Airport - Newark, New Jersey), Central Park (Manhattan), Islip (Long Island) and Bridgeport (Connecticut).

For many in the New York metro region, the day was marked as the hottest since August 9, 2001. Ironically, the day was also the anniversary of the hottest temperature ever recorded, which was 106 back in 1936.

Last night I took to the streets and snapped these photos of the hot, summer sun baking, sizzling and frying the Big Apple; and recorded the video blog post below, which further describes the massive heatwave and its far-reaching effects.

Heat Wave to Continue Choking mid-Atlantic, Northeast U.S.

2010-07-06T08:27:00.001-04:00

The mid-Atlantic and northeast United States is well into the third day of a historic heatwave that is now rivaling and could end up breaking records set in the two memorable heat waves during the summer of 2006. That summer in New York City alone, 46 people died when the furnace went on full blast in late July and early August.

So far during July 2010 in the Big Apple, the first six days have averaged six degrees hotter than the same period last year. The conditions have prompted the National Weather Service to issue heat advisories and excessive heat warnings, as well as air quality alerts for not only the megalopolis, but cities from the Ohio Valley to North Carolina, and northward to southern New England and upstate New York. And guess what? The heat is expected to last all week, with highs reaching the mid-90s to 100+ through Friday. For some cities that would mark one full week with 90+ degree heat.

So what is causing the extreme heat wave? A heat wave occurs when an immense dome of high pressure builds over an area, causing air in the upper levels of the 'dome' (or atmosphere) to be pulled toward the ground, where it becomes compressed and increases in temperature as it expands. This high concentration of pressure makes it difficult for other weather systems to move into the area, which is why a heat wave can last for several days or weeks, such as we are seeing right now. The longer the system stays in an area, the hotter the area becomes, and because the high-pressure system also prevents clouds from entering the region, sunlight can become punishing, heating up the system even more. And what makes it even worse – the pressure causes winds to become faint to nonexistent, further suppressing any relief from the heat.

So how will you beat the heat? Here's some tips to help you try!

Drink more fluids, regardless of your activity level, and don't wait until you're thirsty to drink
Stay indoors and, if at all possible, stay in an air-conditioned place
Wear lightweight, light-colored, loose-fitting clothing, and be sure to dress for the weather
Limit your outdoor activity to morning and evening hours
Cut down on exercise during the day, and if you must exercise, drink two to four glasses of cool, nonalcoholic fluids each hour
Protect yourself from the sun by wearing a wide-brimmed hat – an accessory which should also keep you cooler
And remember, CHECK ON THE ELDERLY and DO NOT KEEP YOUR PETS IN THE CAR

These tips are wise and just a few ways to keep comfortable during this rather oppressive time. But get used to it – it's only the first week of July. We have the rest of the month and all of August ahead of us. Climatologically speaking, the hottest time of the year typically runs from July 20 through August 10.

Stay cool!

NEQ Friday Review, V.9

2010-07-02T10:46:00.007-04:00

Here we are into the second month of hurricane season, and well into what is expected to be comparable to the epic season of 2005, which featured the most storms to ever form in the month of July. Among the five storms that formed in July 2005 were two back-to-back category 4 (and 5) storms: Dennis and Emily. Today's NEQ Friday Review looks back at these two monstrous cyclones that five years ago wreaked havoc on the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.

Hurricane Dennis
Hurricane Dennis was the fourth named storm, second hurricane, and first major hurricane of the 2005 season. In July, the hurricane set several records for early season activity, becoming both the earliest formation of a fourth tropical cyclone and the strongest Atlantic hurricane ever to form before August, though it only held that title for about six days until Hurricane Emily (mentioned below) stole its thunder! Dennis hit Cuba twice as a category 4 storm, and made landfall on the Florida Panhandle as a category 3. Dennis caused at least 89 deaths in the United States and Caribbean (primarily Cuba) and caused $2.23 billion in damages to both areas equally and respectively.

Hurricane Emily
Hurricane Emily was the fifth named storm, third hurricane, second major hurricane, and first category 5 of the 2005 season. Emily was the strongest hurricane ever to form before August, and also the earliest category 5 ever recorded in the Atlantic basin, and the only category 5 hurricane ever recorded before August. Emily passed through the Windward Islands, where it caused heavy damage in Grenada and then made a second landfall landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula as a category 4 storm, first on the island of Cozumel and then just north of Tulum on the mainland of Quintana Roo. After crossing the Bay of Campeche, Emily made a final landfall along the north Mexico coast. Across the Caribbean and Mexico, Emily was responsible for about 14 deaths and $810 million in damages.

Well, there you have it... two very intense hurricanes, in one active month, during one very intense hurricane season. In fact, did you know that 2005 was the only season to ever have two hurricanes reach at least category 4 before the end of July? Just something to think about as we look towards the next few weeks...

Enjoy your weekend, and for those stateside... Happy 4th of July!

Return to home

Disaster Model Assesses Oil Slick vs. Hurricane

2010-07-01T10:29:00.007-04:00

A recent report by Risk Management Solutions (RMS), a company with expertise in the quantification and management of catastrophe risks, further indicates the high potential for a tropical storm or hurricane to pass over and through the gulf oil spill. Wonderful news, right? Ugh, keep reading...

RMS' disaster model is predicting a 13 percent chance that a hurricane will pass over the oil slick and a 7 percent chance that a Category 3 or higher storm hits the slick, which is higher than in an average storm season, when there would be a 4 percent chance of a major hurricane directly hitting the region. A tropical cyclone moving through the slick would bring with it the potential for storm surge to carry tar deposits far inland.

RMS also believes there is about a 15 percent chance that a hurricane or tropical storm comes within 100 miles of the slick by the end of this month (July), and about a 40 percent chance that one does so by the end of August. A storm passing that close to the slick has the potential to bring high waves that break protective booms and allow the oil to be displaced into coastal salt marshes and beaches above the tide line.

Among many of RMS' key niches is providing disaster assessment to insurance companies, and it says the still-growing oil spill will cost insurers between $1 and $3 billion dollars.

It is important to note that residue deposited from oil spill on privately owned property or land as a result of a major hurricane would not be covered by homeowners insurance. Consequently, costs for land-based clean up could be picked up by British Petroleum (BP).

RMS expects the oil spill will have a significant and long-lasting impact on offshore energy insurance availability, rates, and coverages.

Finally, the RMS report concludes that costs for deepwater drilling in the waters off the United States' coastlines will be significantly increased as a result of the inevitable creation of a new offshore regulatory agency.

Time will tell how this all shapes up, but most importantly, be hurricane AND oil ready!

Large Hurricane Alex Aggrevates Oil Slick

2010-06-30T11:57:00.005-04:00

Hurricane Alex is spinning its way closer to the northeast Mexico coast today and should make landfall somewhere near La Pesca late tonight.

The storm, just upgraded to a hurricane a little over 12 hours ago, has for several days been stirring up the waters of the southern Gulf of Mexico, and despite its long distance from the site of the Deepwater Horizon spill, large waves and choppy seas propagating away from Alex's center are already hampering oil clean up efforts.

Here's what's happening now...

Hurricane Alex is a HUGE storm! The outer bands of the hurricane are spreading out hundreds of miles from the center of circulation and are bringing with them to the northeast Gulf heavy rain and large waves as high as 12 feet.
In at least one area of coastal Louisiana, the waves were tossing oil-soaking boom around and forcing crews to take precious time putting it back in place. The fear here is oil crashing over the booms, therefore compromising containment.
Due to thunderstorms and high seas, all near-shore skimmers have been idled off the coasts of Florida, Alabama and Mississippi.
Although minimal, the winds from Hurricane Alex are causing oily waves to slam into Gulf coast beaches, washing away progress already made. Tar balls have reportedly popped up on Louisiana beaches that had been relatively oil-free for a few weeks.

Need I go on, folks? Keep in mind this category 1 hurricane is hundreds of miles away from the oil slick and weak in comparison to what could come closer in days, weeks and months ahead. If Alex is creating this many issues, just imagine what could happen when a much more significant storm heads that way!

NEQ Spotlight: Saffir-Simpson

2010-06-29T08:35:00.004-04:00

Throughout the next several months you'll hear the terms tropical depression, tropical storm, hurricane, major hurricane... and while we know the term 'major hurricane' refers to something we should probably be scared of, for those less versed in the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale, that term might have a different meaning. Well alas, today's NEQ Spotlight takes a closer look at the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (formerly accounting for storm surge, hence the addition of the term wind), which separates hurricanes into five categories distinguished by the intensities of their sustained winds.

Developed in 1971 by civil engineer Herbert Saffir and meteorologist Bob Simpson, adopted by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in 1973 and updated in 2010, the Saffir-Simpson Scale is now based strictly on wind speed and is meant to show on a scale from 1 (the weakest) to 5 (the most intense) the expected damage to structures as a result of a landfalling hurricane. The scale does not take into account storm surge, rainfall, barometric pressure or other elements of a tropical cyclone.

Within the scope of the Saffir-Simpson Scale there is a subset of storms defined as major for those classified as category 3 or higher. A major hurricane is capable or producing extensive to catastrophic damage.

The graphic above defines the categories in the Scale, their associated wind speeds and the potential damage at landfall. With all eyes on a strengthening Alex this week, this scale will definitely be referred to and should be something you become familiar with – now and throughout hurricane season.

Thanks Saffir-Simpson for your contribution to meteorology and involuntarily offering yourself up to today's NEQ Spotlight!

Reference 1: See earlier blog post: New Hurricane Wind Scale for 2010 Season
Reference 2: Check out this transcript from a 1991 interview with Dr. Simpson

Hurricane Devin

2010-06-28T17:04:00.010-04:00

Just a little fun today – something to help brighten up your Monday and have you think a little less of Alex and the oil spill...

Have a great week!

NEQ Friday Review, V.8

2010-06-25T07:59:00.001-04:00

Here we are, the last Friday in June, which means two things: we're almost one month into hurricane season and it's time for the NEQ Friday Review. Today I'll review a new insight into hurricanes that may help forecasters predict the extent of damaging winds and waves as a result of the fiercest of tropical cyclones.

Two of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) researchers, Kenneth Oslund and Philip Callahan, have developed a technique using wave height measurements from satellite altimeters to study Atlantic v.s Pacific hurricanes. They did so by combining data from multiple satellite passes over a variety of category 3 or higher storms to create composite views, or templates, of 'typical' hurricanes.

The results of their efforts support that, although equally as strong, Atlantic hurricanes are generally smaller in size than their Pacific counterparts – a likely result of higher oceanic heat content in the Pacific. In fact, storm-generated waves from Pacific hurricanes extend, on average, a distance of over 120 miles further from the storm center than those of Atlantic storms.

Interesting, the study also proved that a hurricane's strongest winds, those that create the highest waves, occur in the right front quarter of the storm – this, my friends, is also considered The Northeast Quadrant – and is one of the roots of this blog's namesake!

Check out a more in-depth look into the satellite wave data project here.

Enjoy your weekend, and remember, the 2005 hurricane season, the most active in history, didn't spin up its first hurricane until July 4 weekend. Be ready!

Long-Lasting La Niña Poised to Control Weather

2010-06-24T08:15:00.003-04:00

Earlier this month the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) announced that we officially moved into a La Niña pattern, and recent images from NASA's Jason-2 oceanography satellite verify. The opposite of El Niño, La Niña is the cooling of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

Both El Niño and La Niña play a major role in global weather. During a La Niña, trade winds in the western equatorial Pacific Ocean are stronger than normal, and the cold water that normally exists along the coast of South America extends to the central regions. La Niñas are associated with less moisture in the air, resulting in less rain along the coasts of North and South America. They also tend to increase the formation of tropical storms in the Atlantic.

So what exactly does that mean for the United States? What impact can we expect?

An increase in the number of tropical storms as a result of La Niña boosts the chances that a storm (or hurricane) will enter the Gulf of Mexico, home to about 30 percent of U.S. oil and 12 percent of U.S. natural gas production, as well as the anomaly of an oil slick this year.
La Niña's cooling pattern often brings dryer, warmer weather to the southern half of the United States, thus increasing the wildfire threat in Florida and California.
During La Niña, the northern third of the United States often has colder winters.
Increased rainfall in the Pacific Northwest is also common during La Niña.

Experts expect the central equatorial Pacific Ocean to stay colder than normal throughout the summer and beyond, so the risk for long-lasting La Niña-type weather conditions to affect North America in coming months is quite likely.

Looks like next winter could be VERY different from last, which was largely controlled by El Niño!