NEQ Friday Review, V.15

There continues to be a lot of speculation as to whether or not the predictions for an extreme hurricane season will validate. I continue to firmly argue they will, and that until we are in November and the season is nearly over, there is no room for disagreement.

Some of the nastiest, most high-impact seasons did not get going until September, and I really think this season will do the same. In 2001 the first hurricane did not even form until the second week of September – and then there ended up being a total of nine hurricanes that season! Just goes to show you...

I continue to encourage the hurricane season pessimists out there to hold their breath and stop mocking and bashing the experts who have far more experience predicting hurricanes than the spectators who are quick to call them out.

Now on a more reminiscent note from hurricanes past, this week’s NEQ Friday Review will look back at a historic northeastern hurricane through the eyes of a fan of The Northeast Quadrant. Here, Nick Panico, a secondary education science teacher from Suffolk County, Long Island, New York, tells his story of Hurricane Gloria from September 1985.

"I remember Hurricane Gloria even though I was only eight and a half years old at the time. My family was living in Mastic Beach, which is a small peninsula surrounded by the Atlantic to the South and the Bay to the east and west, in Suffolk County, Long Island. We were told to evacuate on the morning of September 25, 1985 because our house was located about .6 of a mile just north of the Bay.

Gloria was hyped up to be the Mega-Storm or Storm of the Century because it was a category 4 hurricane just south of North Carolina. Then, what normally saves New England, actually took place. Gloria came north, clipped the Outer Banks of North Carolina and weakened, later arriving in Long Island only as a category 1. Sources argue the hurricane’s true strength upon landfall, but I know the damage I saw would verify a category 1 storm. There was no electricity for 10 days so in the eyes of many, Gloria was considered a major hurricane.

Speaking of major hurricanes, I had recalled folks saying something about 1938, even thought I had no clue as to what they were talking about since I was so young. I later learned an intense hurricane barreled through the very soil I lived on, causing extensive damage and killing hundreds. After learning more about it I began my own extensive research on the 1938 Long Island Express.

Back to Gloria – the population at the time Gloria made landfall on Long Island was no way near as great as it is now. If a hurricane of Gloria’s strength made landfall now, the effect would be absolutely devastating. Besides the risk of extreme flooding from both tropical rains and that from storm surge, the increase in development over the last 20 years would lead to significant structural damage – to homes, businesses, and personal and public property alike. Agriculture would be greatly affected – the loss of trees and damage to farmland and vineyards that line Long Island’s north shore could suffer an extreme loss. Seeing what happens to these areas during a winter nor’easter, it is difficult to imagine what would happen if even a category 1 storm rolled through.”

Now you might be wondering why I am sharing Nick’s story. Well, if you’ve been keeping up with The Northeast Quadrant you know by now that the northeast is overdue for a hurricane landfall, and perhaps this year will be the year it happens.

I mentioned last week that the Atlantic is prime and the pattern set up now very much favors tropical cyclone activity to reach coastlines from the Gulf to the northeast. Experts have said areas from North Carolina to Maine have a chance nearly equal to that of Florida and the Gulf coast in being hit with a hurricane. It’s happened before, and it will happen again.

Have a great weekend and be hurricane ready!

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NEQ Spotlight: Hurricane Alex

NASA released this week a satellite imagery movie showing the life cycle of Hurricane Alex, the first named storm of the 2010 hurricane season, and the only storm to form during the month of June. The movie was put together by a compilation of GOES-13 captures over the course of two weeks, and is a definitive example of one of the tropical-storm-in-ten which bloom into a hurricane, therefore honoring Hurricane Alex as today’s NEQ Spotlight!

After struggling across hurricane alley as Invest 93L during the last two weeks of June, Tropical Depression # 1, which formed on June 25, managed to strengthen into Tropical Storm Alex on June 26 before making landfall along the coast of Belize. Being downgraded back to a tropical depression before reaching the calm of the Gulf of Mexico, Alex quickly spun back up into a tropical storm and further strengthened into a hurricane on June 29 before making a final landfall in northeast Mexico on July 1.

Hurricane Alex's heavy rainfall flooded towns, created mudslides, caused waterways to overflow and broke records. Sadly, it also proved fatal to at least 30 people.

Here's the amazing GOES-13 video – Enjoy!



You can also downland the movie here.

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NEQ Spotlight: Saffir-Simpson

Throughout the next several months you'll hear the terms tropical depression, tropical storm, hurricane, major hurricane... and while we know the term 'major hurricane' refers to something we should probably be scared of, for those less versed in the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale, that term might have a different meaning. Well alas, today's NEQ Spotlight takes a closer look at the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (formerly accounting for storm surge, hence the addition of the term wind), which separates hurricanes into five categories distinguished by the intensities of their sustained winds.

Developed in 1971 by civil engineer Herbert Saffir and meteorologist Bob Simpson, adopted by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in 1973 and updated in 2010, the Saffir-Simpson Scale is now based strictly on wind speed and is meant to show on a scale from 1 (the weakest) to 5 (the most intense) the expected damage to structures as a result of a landfalling hurricane. The scale does not take into account storm surge, rainfall, barometric pressure or other elements of a tropical cyclone.

Within the scope of the Saffir-Simpson Scale there is a subset of storms defined as major for those classified as category 3 or higher. A major hurricane is capable or producing extensive to catastrophic damage.

The graphic above defines the categories in the Scale, their associated wind speeds and the potential damage at landfall. With all eyes on a strengthening Alex this week, this scale will definitely be referred to and should be something you become familiar with – now and throughout hurricane season.

Thanks Saffir-Simpson for your contribution to meteorology and involuntarily offering yourself up to today's NEQ Spotlight!

Reference 1: See earlier blog post: New Hurricane Wind Scale for 2010 Season
Reference 2: Check out this transcript from a 1991 interview with Dr. Simpson

NEQ Spotlight: Dr. Francis Galton

A new feature to the blog, the NEQ Spotlight will periodically draw attention to those who influenced and shaped the science of meteorology!

There's one weather pioneer who has fallen off the 'radar' and today, the inaugural NEQ Spotlight pays respect to his can't-live-without meteorological breakthrough: the weather map! I'm talking about Dr. Francis Galton and his instrumental invention dates back to the mid-19th century and still today, is a standard tool in weather forecasting.

Interestingly, Galton never held any academic or professional post. Instead, he did his experimenting at home or during his travels. His earliest research had to do with meteorology, and in his 1863 book, Meteorgraphica, he devised the weather map (which first appeared in the London Times in 1875), and he also proposed a theory of anticyclones - and the hugely important role they play in weather movements and conditions. He also was the first to establish a complete record of short-term climatic phenomena on a European scale.

The invention of the weather map was obviously incredible, but why is the anticyclone such a big deal? This invention greatly increased the scientific understanding of how weather systems work. Whereas cyclones rotate counter- or anti-clockwise in the northern hemisphere, the anticyclones rotate clockwise. Both rotate in the opposite direction in the southern hemisphere. One of the most famous anticyclones is the Bermuda High.

In addition to these great inventions and discoveries, Galton was also instrumental in establishing the Meteorgraphica Office and the National Physical Laboratory in London.

Hats off to you Dr. Galton! Thanks for the weather map... and anticyclone!