Tuesday, October 26, 2010

BOMBOGENESIS!

Bombogenesis is defined as rapid or extreme cyclogenesis of a mid-latitude cyclone that drops in surface barometric pressure by 24 or more millibars in a 24-hour period.

A record-breaking weather event is unfolding across the upper Midwest of the United States as I type this. Surface pressures are rapidly falling and the winds are kicking up big time. Why is it happening and how significant is it?

In a case of classic bombogenesis, this storm's surface pressure has been steadily falling and is expected to fall by at least 24 millibars in 24 hours. Bombogensis is not something you often see in this part of the country, but for those in the tropics (hurricanes) and the northeast (nor'easters), it's not that unfamiliar of a term.


Current surface maps as of 10:00 a.m. ET, October 26, 2010

So how could this storm stack up with other notables in the region? In a tale of "GREAT" 'Great Lakes' Cyclones,' the developing storm could go down as the second strongest cyclone
(in terms of pressure) to move through the region since record keeping began. Check it out...

1. The Great Ohio Blizzard - January 26, 1978 (958mb/28.05 inches)
UPDATE 10:30 p.m. ET, October 26, 2010: Now the #2 storm.

2.
CURRENT STORM - October 26-27, 2010 (959mb/28.35 inches)
UPDATE 10:30 p.m. ET, October 26, 2010: The current storm has become the #1 storm at 955mb/28.20 inches.

3. Armistice Day Storm - November 11, 1940 (967mb/28.55 inches) and Anniversary Storm - November 10, 1988 (967mb/28.55 inches)

4. Cyclone of 1913 - November 7-9, 1913 (968mb/28.60 inches)

5. Edmund Fitzgerald Storm - November 10, 1975 (980mb/28.95 inches)

Speaking of the
Edmund Fitzgerald Storm, check out his tribute...



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Monday, October 25, 2010

Winter 2010–2011 Forecast Summary

Over the past few weeks a variety of winter forecasts were released to the public, all of which are hinting at another season of extremes for the United States.

While the extremes of last winter will likely not be felt in the same regions, with this coming winter a new round of crazy weather could be in store for areas far removed from the 2010 blizzard-plagued mid-Atlantic and northeast.


To make it easier for you, here's a regional summary of pretty much every forecast released:

Pacific Northwest: Colder and wetter than average. La Niña often brings lower than average temperatures and increased mountain snow to the Pacific Northwest and western Montana during the winter months, which is good for the replenishment of water resources and winter recreation but can also lead to greater flooding and avalanche concerns.

Southwest: Warmer and drier than average. This will likely exacerbate drought conditions in these areas. All southern states are at risk of having above normal wildfire conditions starting this winter and lasting into the spring.

Northern Plains: Colder and wetter than average. Likely to see increased storminess and flooding.

Southern Plains, Gulf Coast States & Southeast: Warmer and drier than average. This will likely exacerbate drought conditions in these areas. All southern states are at risk of having above normal wildfire conditions starting this winter and lasting into the spring.

Florida
: Drier than average, with an equal chance for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures. Above normal wildfire conditions.

Ohio and Tennessee Valleys
: Warmer and wetter than average. Likely to see increased storminess and flooding.

Northeast and Mid-Atlantic
: Equal chances for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures and precipitation. Winter weather for these regions is often driven not by La Niña but by weather patterns over the northern Atlantic Ocean and Arctic. These are often more short-term, and are generally predictable only a week or so in advance. If enough cold air and moisture are in place, areas north of the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast could see above-average snow.

Central U.S.
: Equal chances of above-near-or below normal temperatures and precipitation.

Hawaii
: Drier than normal through November, then wetter than normal December through February. Statewide, the current drought is expected to continue through the winter, with several locations remaining on track to become the driest year on record. Drought recovery is more likely on the smaller islands of Kauai and Molokai, and over the windward slopes of the Big Island and Maui.

Alaska
: Odds favor colder than average temperatures with equal chances of above or below normal precipitation. The interior and southern portions of the state are currently drier than normal. A dry winter may set Alaska up for a greater chance of above normal wildfire conditions in the spring.

Courtesy NWS

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Thursday, October 21, 2010

The Weathervein - Episode 17

Here we are in late October and the northwest Caribbean remains a breeding ground as we now have Tropical Storm Richard. Richard, which should become a hurricane over the next day or so, is spinning its way slowly westward towards the Yucatan Peninsula. That's right, yet another Yucatan threat! But what about the United States? Well folks, this might be the one to watch! Find out in this episode of The Weathervein where Richard is heading, how strong he could get, who might be impacted in the short- and long-range and what it could mean for the Gulf coast! We're hurricane ready on The Weathervein... are you?



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Wednesday, October 20, 2010

Global Drought on the Horizon?

According to a new study by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), the United States and many other heavily populated countries could face a growing threat of severe and prolonged drought in coming decades, as a result of warming temperatures associated with climate change (notice how I didn't say global warming!). These warming temperatures will likely create increasingly dry conditions across much of the globe in the next 30 years, possibly reaching a scale in some regions by the end of the century that has rarely, if ever, been observed in modern times.

The study,
which is highlighted in an article in "Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change," indicates that most at risk would be the Western Hemisphere, along with large parts of Eurasia, Africa, and Australia, while higher-latitude regions from Alaska to Scandinavia are likely to experience opposite conditions.

An expert working on the study noted that if the projections come even close to being realized, the consequences for society worldwide will be enormous as some of the worst impact we face will involve a decrease in water as a natural resource.

Learn more about the study
here.

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Tuesday, October 19, 2010

Super Typhoon Megi: An Interview in the Aftermath

On Sunday night Super Typhoon Megi and it's 180+ mph winds barreled into northern Luzon in the Philippines as the strongest tropical cyclone of the 2010 season. With a minimum pressure of 885 millibars at landfall, Megi, known locally as 'Juan,' could perhaps go down as the strongest landfalling tropical cyclone ever!

Last night via Skype I caught up with Claiv Marco from Manila and he provided insight into the state of calamity in northern Luzon, the effects Megi had on his region south of the disaster zone, and an update where Megi is now and where it is headed, as well as some historical perspective on typhoons striking the Philippines.

Claiv is a big fan of The Northeast Quadrant and I thank him greatly for this interview. Check it out here...

Claiv Marco:
good evening devin

Devin Matthew Toporek:
hi!

Claiv Marco:
oh, sorry for waiting

Devin Matthew Toporek:
no problem

Devin Matthew Toporek:
you have video?

Claiv Marco:
my web cam unavailable

Devin Matthew Toporek:
oh that is too bad. was hoping to record something so i could repost it and share with those on the northeast quadrant page.

Devin Matthew Toporek:
so how are things there?

Claiv Marco:
its too bad

Claiv Marco:
mostly in the Northern part

Devin Matthew Toporek:
what are you hearing?

Claiv Marco:
power poles and lines were destroyed

Devin Matthew Toporek:
i'm sure!

Claiv Marco:
most of the towns and provinces in northern Luzon has no power

Claiv Marco:
even telecommunication networks

Devin Matthew Toporek:
i would imagine the storm surge was incredible! do you know how high it was?

Claiv Marco:
what i've heard is about 18-20 feet

Claiv Marco:
along the east coast

Devin Matthew Toporek:
wow!

Devin Matthew Toporek:
i would have expected even more!

Devin Matthew Toporek:
during Hurricane Katrina there was almost a 30 feet surge

Devin Matthew Toporek:
and 20+ with Ike

Claiv Marco:
maybe its because the area there is too terrain

Devin Matthew Toporek:
probably because there is also less influence from a continental shelf like we have here in the United States

Devin Matthew Toporek:
is the area where Megi made landfall heavily populated?

Claiv Marco:
in some part mostly in the Ilagan City Isabela, where its eye passed, the entire province of Isabela is now under state of calamity, and hundreds of houses destroyed

Devin Matthew Toporek:
unbelievable! i can only imagine!

Devin Matthew Toporek:
i find it interesting but extremely fortunate that i have only heard of a few deaths from this storm, so far. it just amazes me because in a storm like that we would lose hundreds, if not thousands... it's happened before here and i am sure it would again. you are very lucky.

Claiv Marco:
yes and we are very thankful to God

Devin Matthew Toporek:
so tell me... what was the feeling like there when Megi was approaching. what were the weather forecasters and government telling the residents of northern Luzon province?

Claiv Marco:
all of the evacuees stayed in gymnasiums and schools

Claiv Marco:
before the landfall

Devin Matthew Toporek:
good!

Claiv Marco:
but unfortunately

Claiv Marco:
the rice fields, corn fields and other sources of their livelihood were totally destroyed

Claiv Marco:
they are crying

Devin Matthew Toporek:
that is sad, i cannot imagine what it would be like to realize such a loss! as i said, they're very lucky to have their life though.

Devin Matthew Toporek:
did you see or hear of many northern residents evacuating to your area down south?

Claiv Marco:
i didn't heard something, i think they all just stayed in government properties in their provinces maybe because they'll be having hard time to go south because you need to cross mountains before going south and they don't need to leave their places

Devin Matthew Toporek:
oh, i see.

Devin Matthew Toporek:
so tell me, living in the Philippines... you have seen quite a few Typhoons, right? which ones do you recall the most and why?

Claiv Marco:
oh great question

Claiv Marco:
i'm gonna share you a lot

Devin Matthew Toporek:
can't wait!

Devin Matthew Toporek:
go for it!

Claiv Marco:
Ok, the most intense and powerful typhoon that I experience in Manila is Typhoon Xangsane or Milenyo here in the Philippines. Because of Xangsane, I became interested in typhoon forecasting.

Devin Matthew Toporek:
how old were you when Xangsane hit, and how strong was it?

Claiv Marco:
i think i'm 17

Claiv Marco:
it's too strong for us living in the city

Devin Matthew Toporek:
what was the devastation like?

Claiv Marco:
lots of billboards collapse and fell down in major roads

Claiv Marco:
trees fell over roofs

Devin Matthew Toporek:
sounds scary! but fun at the same time, obviously that is the weather enthusiast and storm chaser in me speaking!

Devin Matthew Toporek:
i bet if Megi made landfall near Manila the effects would be far worse than what they were!

Claiv Marco:
yes i understand, i feel the same way too

Claiv Marco:
Oh wow maybe

Claiv Marco:
i think there will be lots of damages

Devin Matthew Toporek:
and what about Milenyo? how strong was that storm and how old were you?

Claiv Marco:
Xangsane is Milenyo

Claiv Marco:
we change typhoon name when in enters the territory

Devin Matthew Toporek:
oh, how interesting! is that why Megi you began calling it Juan?

Devin Matthew Toporek:
why do they change the typhoon names when they enter the Philippines territories?

Claiv Marco:
because our authorities wanted to have clear number of storms that enters the country and it is alphabetical in order

Devin Matthew Toporek:
again, how interesting!

Claiv Marco:
right now we are experiencing strong winds and heavy rain here in southern Luzon including Manila

Claiv Marco:
because of the outer rainbands

Devin Matthew Toporek:
right, i saw that the typhoon's outflow was still impressive!

Devin Matthew Toporek:
it was amazing though last night to see just how quickly the storm deteriorated once it made landfall. that high terrain just ripped it apart...

Devin Matthew Toporek:
though having it still emerge over the south china sea as a strog category 2 (hurricane) is yet again impressive.

Claiv Marco:
yes and it still intensifying

Devin Matthew Toporek:
right... will continue to do so until its second landfall later this week in southeast china.

Devin Matthew Toporek:
should not be a strong as it was though, right?

Claiv Marco:
yes, and i think its forecast is to move near hong kong

Devin Matthew Toporek:
i saw that!

Devin Matthew Toporek:
hong kong looks like it will be in "the northeast quadrant" no less!

Devin Matthew Toporek:
my work has a conference in hong kong later this week! crazy!

Claiv Marco:
I see, wow, hope to be like what you are doing

Claiv Marco:
Ok i'll share more experiences in typhoons

Devin Matthew Toporek:
yes, please!

Claiv Marco:
as i've said the most powerful that i experienced was milenyo, now i'm gonna tell you the most devastating, it is typhoon Ondoy or Ketsana in international name

Claiv Marco:
it hit Manila as a Tropical Storm

Devin Matthew Toporek:
oh yeah? what was so bad, the rain?

Claiv Marco:
yes too bad,the entire Metro Manila almost submerged

Claiv Marco:
it brought 348.4 mm of rain

Devin Matthew Toporek:
wow!

Devin Matthew Toporek:
we had a bad tropical storm here about ten years ago. it's name was Allison.

Devin Matthew Toporek:
similar devastation from flooding rains...

Devin Matthew Toporek:
http://northeastquadrant.blogspot.com/2010/06/tropical-storm-allison-lesson-learned.html

Devin Matthew Toporek:
so are you going to study weather when you go to college?

Claiv Marco:
wow 40 in

Devin Matthew Toporek:
yeah, Allison was horrible!

Claiv Marco:
i just study by myself over the web, and meteorology is not actually my course

Devin Matthew Toporek:
you are great at it! i see your posts and maps on your facebook wall. keep up the good work!

Claiv Marco:
thanks!! i just wanted to tell and warn my friends

Devin Matthew Toporek:
let's make a deal! if the opportunity presents itself, and let's hope it does soon, you can come to the U.S. and chase a hurricane with me and i come there and chase a [super]typhoon with you!

Claiv Marco:
wow, if that's it, let's see

Devin Matthew Toporek:
easier said than done right??? ;-)

Claiv Marco:
yes, it's not that easy

Claiv Marco:
mostly in my case

Devin Matthew Toporek:
well let's hope you and your family and friends and all those in the Philippines and south China as well - all stay safe for the rest of the season!

Claiv Marco:
Yours likewise! God Bless you!

Devin Matthew Toporek:
stay in touch... and good luck in school!

Claiv Marco:
Thank you, by the way i already graduated


Devin Matthew Toporek:
do you mind if i post this conversation on the northeast quadrant and blog? i am sure people would be so interested to hear about it!

Devin Matthew Toporek:
oh, i'm sorry. i thought you were still in school... well good for you then!


Claiv Marco:
It's Ok, Thanks for a great conversation

Devin Matthew Toporek:
you too! have a good day...

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Wednesday, October 13, 2010

NASA's Concludes GRIP Mission

Comprehensive hurricane research project proves successful!

Last week NASA concluded its GRIP (Genesis and Rapid Intensification Process) hurricane research mission aimed at gaining a better understanding of tropical cyclone behavior—how they form, evolve and strengthen, and how they weaken and die. GRIP, which launched in mid-July, promises to revolutionize tropical weather forecasts in years to come.

How it worked
The GRIP mission analyzed storms with manned and unmanned aircraft as well as satellite imagery. The aircraft, ready for deployment at a moments notice, were based along the U.S. Gulf coast and northern Caribbean islands and were equipped with 15 weather instruments, ranging from an advanced microwave sounder to dropsondes—gadgets that record atmospheric and surface measurements as they fall through the atmosphere to the ocean surface.

The perfect specimens
While tropical cyclone impact for the season remains quite low for U.S. coastal communities, two hurricanes, Earl and Karl were significant for GRIP's research. Earl, a category 4 storm that spun through the central and western Atlantic, was analyzed as it rapidly intensified and degraded off the southeast coast before heading northward towards the Canadian maritime region. During this time GRIP sent several aircraft into the storm, penetrating its eye and sending back critical storm data that offered insight into wind speed and direction as well as wind shear's affect on hurricanes moving swiftly through northern latitudes. Similarly, Karl, which was a strengthening category 3 at landfall, was penetrated by additional aircraft as it plowed into the Mexican coast. These aircraft captured valuable data such as cloud temperature, air pressure, humidity, precipitation, convection and sea surface temperatures. GRIP continued it's research after Karl moved inland and deteriorated, also providing perspective on how land friction affects hurricane degradation.

The seasonal scorecard
The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season concludes November 31 and remains quite active, with 18 storms, of which 16 have been named. 8 of those named storms became hurricanes, of which 5 were major.

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Monday, October 11, 2010

The Weathervein - Episode 16

The Weathervein is back and we're recapping the tropics and providing the latest information on soon-to-be Hurricane Paula in the northwest Caribbean, as well as a developing nor'easter for the northeast U.S. later this week! Check it out here in Episode 16 of The Weathervein!



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Friday, October 8, 2010

The Northeast Quadrant Promo Video

Weather Enthusiast, Blogger, Social Networker and Storm Chaser

In this video Devin Matthew Toporek promotes The Northeast Quadrant online community for weather enthusiasts, professionals and all those interested in meteorology and more. The Northeast Quadrant also can be found on:


Facebook:
http://facebook.com/northeastquadrant

Twitter:
http://twitter.com/nequadrant
YouTube: http://youtube.com/nequadrant



Enjoy, and thanks for following!

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17, 15, 8, 5

You might be wondering what the numbers in the title of this post refer to. Well wonder no more because I'm going to tell you these numbers reference the scorecard for the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season – a season that will go down in the record books as one of the most active in history!

Wait, what!? How can it be one of the most active?

You mean you haven't heard that more than half the storms, major hurricanes included, have gone out to sea as 'fish storms?' That's right... it's been a very active hurricane season but with little U.S. impact, who knew?!

With the formation of Hurricane Otto today, the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season now features a total of 17 storms, 15 of which have been named and of those, 8 became hurricanes. Of those hurricanes, 5 were majors (category 3, i.e. 115 mph or higher). A typical hurricane season produces about 10 storms, of which 6 become hurricanes.

Before the start of hurricane season experts warned of the threat of not only an active season but a very high impact one, however, as mentioned and observed, U.S. impact has been quite minimal outside of a few tropical storms, a depression and glancing blow from Hurricane Earl.

While we are hitting the numbers big time, somewhat unexpected atmospheric conditions have steered a great number of storms away from U.S. coastlines. Who's complaining right? Well, aside from the storm chasers and weather enthusiasts!

Hurricane tracks are greatly influenced by the aforementioned atmospheric conditions. The upper level currents steer hurricanes in a variety of ways and storm tracks are highly dependent on where the storms form and the steering currents at that particular time. According to National Hurricane Center (NHC) Director, Bill Read, with the weather pattern that was in place and the fact that this season's storms formed so far out to the east, it's not surprising that they turned off to the north. As soon as you find a weakness in the big high (known as the Bermuda High) you'll get that effect. This follows the same methodology that Greg Nordstrom and I refer to often in The Weathervein. When storms form east of 35W longitude they will 9 out of 10 times curve out to sea.


Time will tell what the remainder of hurricane season will bring but we only have 6 names left on the list before they are used up. Those names are Paula, Richard, Shary, Tomas, Virginie and Walter. Thereafter we would be required to begin using the Greek alphabet as we did only one time before
in 2005. However, time is running out.

Regardless, always be hurricane ready!

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Monday, October 4, 2010

Measuring up the Summer of 2010!

From record-breaking heatwaves to drought and fires, on a global scale the summer of 2010 will undoubtedly go down in the books as one of the most extreme for the northern hemisphere. But how extreme and how hot... and how does it compare to years prior?

According to recently released information by NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), globally, June through August was the fourth-warmest summer period in GISS's 131-year-temperature record. The same months during 2009, in contrast, were the second warmest on record. The cooler 2010 summer temperatures (and by cooler I mean SLIGHTLY and UNNOTICEABLE by many) were primarily the result of the current La Niña pattern replacing El Niño which has controlled our weather for the better part of the last year or so.

Looking at this information you probably cannot help but wonder if this trend points towards a warming planet, especially when global seasonal temperatures for the spring of 2010 also were the warmest on record. It is the public's instinct to look at local temperature anomalies and draw that conclusion, but GISS says these trends have limited relevance on a global scale.

In reviewing some interesting data, I personally made note that 2010 is shaping up very similar to 2005 which was THE warmest year on record. We are looking at similar atmospheric patterns, and that includes the current influences on the Atlantic hurricane season. GISS believes 2010 will end up measuring sufficiently close to 2005 and the last few months of the year will be very telling as that is the period that brought 2005 from being one of the warmest to THE warmest.

Here are some links to previous posts I've written on the extremes of summer 2010!

Heat Wave to Continue Choking mid-Atlantic, Northeast U.S.
(July 6, 2010)

NEQ Friday Review, V.10 (July 9, 2010)

Extreme Heat Could Become Summer's Norm (July 22, 2010)

Russia Heat Wave is OUT OF CONTROL! (August 10, 2010)

Global Extremities of Summer 2010 (August 17, 2010)

2010 U.S. Summer Review (September 15, 2010)

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Friday, October 1, 2010

2010 Atlantic Tropical Update: What Lies Ahead

As mentioned the other day we are well into an above-average Atlantic hurricane season, now recording 14 named storms from Alex to Nicole, and two unnamed tropical depressions. That leaves us with just seven more names available until we would need to cut into the Greek alphabet – which has only been done once in history – in 2005. Given statistical guidance, it could happen again.

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), 27.3 percent of all tropical storms and 26.7 percent of all hurricanes since 1851 have formed between today, October 1 and December 31, (despite the seasons official close on November 30), and in fact, October rivals August when it comes to the number of tropical storms that form in waters that are still warm, such as the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea.


In 2005, a season that featured similar favorable tropical development conditions as the 2010 season, nine storms were recorded in October alone, and an additional four storm developed through the turn of the new year (2005– 2006). Even though there are no indications a situation like that would evolve during the next few months, it would not take much – just a gradual storm here and there – to easily advance us through the remainder of the alphabet. But that said, what happened to impact? This season was dubbed the season of impact, not the season of numbers?

It only takes one,
so what imminently lies ahead? The NHC is now tracking a new invest area called 97L which has a 40 percent chance of development over the next couple days. Should it develop it would become Tropical Depression #16 and/or Tropical Storm and/or Hurricane Otto. This is a system that in the near-term the Leeward islands of the Caribbean will want to watch.

Regarding the Gulf of Mexico, this area is blocked for development, at least for now. The Caribbean continues to produce a lot of disorganized convection left behind from Matthew and Nicole, but nothing appears to be boiling into a tropical cyclone (yet).


Now in related news I'd like to provide you a link to NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracking Tool which allows users to search by U.S. zip code, state or county, storm name or year, or latitude and longitude points to plot some of the greatest storm tracks from year's past. The site includes tropical cyclone data and information on coastal county hurricane strikes through 2009. It also features a searchable database of population changes versus hurricane strikes for U.S. coastal counties from 1900 to 2000 and includes detailed reports on the life history and effects of U.S. tropical cyclones since 1958. Check it out here.

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