The Weathervein - Episode 19

A monster winter storm is taking shape in the center of the nation and will barrel its way eastward over the next two days. The storm, which is already being called historic, will feature severe blizzard conditions from Oklahoma to Missouri through Illinois and Michigan, all the way into southern Canada. Hefty snowfall amounts throughout the Plains, Midwest and interior Northeast could exceed 1 to 2 feet, meanwhile a severe ice storm is set to cripple the Ohio Valley to New York City. In this episode of The Weathervein, get the latest on this developing storm and find out what you could expect in your neighborhood! Stay safe!



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Research, Trends Indicate Warming Atmosphere

According to a new study recently published in the Journal of Geophysical Research, 'global warming' associated with 'climate change' could cool down northern temperatures during the winter months.

The cooling would be the result of shrinking sea-ice in the eastern Arctic which could cause regional heating of the lower levels of the atmosphere, therefore triggering an overall cooling of the northern continents. Most affected would be Europe and northern Asia in the form of cold winter extremes. You can learn more about the study here.

Meanwhile, scientists at NOAA and several other global climate organizations recently contributed to the paper, "Tropospheric Temperature Trends: History of an Ongoing Controversy," also indicating Earth's lower atmosphere is warming.

Displaying trends using 195 cited papers, model results and atmospheric data sets, the paper documents how, since the development of the very first climate models in the early 1960s, the troposphere has been projected to warm along with the Earth's surface because of the increasing amounts of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. You can learn more about the paper here.

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Winter 2010–2011 Forecast Summary

Over the past few weeks a variety of winter forecasts were released to the public, all of which are hinting at another season of extremes for the United States.

While the extremes of last winter will likely not be felt in the same regions, with this coming winter a new round of crazy weather could be in store for areas far removed from the 2010 blizzard-plagued mid-Atlantic and northeast.

To make it easier for you, here's a regional summary of pretty much every forecast released:

Pacific Northwest: Colder and wetter than average. La Niña often brings lower than average temperatures and increased mountain snow to the Pacific Northwest and western Montana during the winter months, which is good for the replenishment of water resources and winter recreation but can also lead to greater flooding and avalanche concerns.

Southwest: Warmer and drier than average. This will likely exacerbate drought conditions in these areas. All southern states are at risk of having above normal wildfire conditions starting this winter and lasting into the spring.

Northern Plains: Colder and wetter than average. Likely to see increased storminess and flooding.

Southern Plains, Gulf Coast States & Southeast: Warmer and drier than average. This will likely exacerbate drought conditions in these areas. All southern states are at risk of having above normal wildfire conditions starting this winter and lasting into the spring.

Florida: Drier than average, with an equal chance for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures. Above normal wildfire conditions.

Ohio and Tennessee Valleys: Warmer and wetter than average. Likely to see increased storminess and flooding.

Northeast and Mid-Atlantic: Equal chances for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures and precipitation. Winter weather for these regions is often driven not by La Niña but by weather patterns over the northern Atlantic Ocean and Arctic. These are often more short-term, and are generally predictable only a week or so in advance. If enough cold air and moisture are in place, areas north of the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast could see above-average snow.

Central U.S.: Equal chances of above-near-or below normal temperatures and precipitation.

Hawaii: Drier than normal through November, then wetter than normal December through February. Statewide, the current drought is expected to continue through the winter, with several locations remaining on track to become the driest year on record. Drought recovery is more likely on the smaller islands of Kauai and Molokai, and over the windward slopes of the Big Island and Maui.

Alaska: Odds favor colder than average temperatures with equal chances of above or below normal precipitation. The interior and southern portions of the state are currently drier than normal. A dry winter may set Alaska up for a greater chance of above normal wildfire conditions in the spring.

Courtesy NWS

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Winter 2010 Rewind: El Niño, NAO Convergence

This past winter was for many, absolutely epic! The rarest of events for big east coast cities unfolded between December and March, blanketing locations from Washington, DC to New York with record snowfall in the form of fierce blizzards and historic nor'easters.

As winter 2010 concluded I conducted two interviews with seasoned meteorologists having expertise in not only northeastern United States weather, but with nor'easters such as those that plowed through in months prior. In both my interviews with winter weather authority, Paul Kocin; and chief forecaster for AccuWeather, Elliot Abrams; the anomalies of two unique weather patterns converging was mentioned as the likely cause of that winter's wrath. Those anomalies were El Niño, the cyclic warming of the tropical Pacific, and the strong negative phase in a pressure cycle called the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).

Well alas... this week a new study appearing in the journal, Geophysical Research Letters, states that these two weather patterns did indeed converge along the east coast and are both responsible for the historic winter that unfolded. The study was conducted by a team of scientists at Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory who analyzed 60 years of snowfall measurements to conclude that the negative NAO this particular winter made the air colder over the eastern United States, causing more precipitation to fall as snow. El Niño brought even more precipitation to the area, which when interacting with the NAO's presence, led to even more snow.

The last time the NAO experienced a strong negative phase was in the winter of 1995-1996. During that winter the east coast was also hammered with above average snowfall. This winter, the NAO was even more negative – a state that happens less than 1 percent of the time.

It is important to note, however, that while the heavy snow on the east coast dominated headlines this winter, the Great Lakes and western Canada (remember this?) actually saw less snow than usual – typical for an El Niño year. The arctic also experienced warmer weather than usual.

Finally, I'd like to once again showcase this radar rewind, courtesy of AccuWeather.com. You will see 22 major storms that doused the northeast in a four month radar animation from December 1 through March 30. AMAZING!

* Note: This video is best viewed in Firefox, Chrome, Safari or any web browser other than Explorer (go figure) and it's totally worth launching those browsers if you have one of them, because this is just awesomeness!



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Nor'easter Madness: Winter 2009 – 2010 Radar Rewind

This is one of the most AMAZING things I have EVER seen! This is pure Nor'easter Madness!

Check out this radar rewind, courtesy of AccuWeather.com. You will see 22 major storms that doused the northeast in a four month radar animation from December 1 through today.

* Note: This video is best viewed in Firefox, Chrome, Safari or any web browser other than Explorer (go figure) and it's totally worth launching those browsers if you have one of them, because this is just awesomeness!

From February Fury to March Madness

We all know that February was one of the harshest winter weather months the Eastern third of the country has seen in many, many years. Just look at the following two graphics supplied today by The Weather Channel.

In the first graphic, check out the temperature extremes and just how much of the nation was affected by temperatures running well below average. That, coupled with unusual heavy snowfall amounts as a result of back-to-back-to-back Nor'easters, left major U.S. cities from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast with record setting Februaries. The second graphic shows the states that reported their all time greatest snowfalls for the month of February, as well as those that reported their all time snowiest month ever!

Now as we enter the official start of the meteorological spring (March 1), we also enter tornado season! March tends to host some of the year's most volatile weather across the lower 48. The transition month welcomes cold surges from the north and more frequent warm surges from the south. The clash of these air masses typically sets up across the plains and southeast states before migrating northward and westward later in Spring.

Here's to a crazy Winter and a hopefully crazier Spring!

Famous Rodent Calls for 6 More Weeks of Winter!

So as well all know by now, Punxsutawney Phil was ripped from his weather station of a hole (see image to the right) this morning to provide us with critical climatological information, noting that we have to endure six more weeks of winter weather!

The legend is that if the groundhog (also known as a woodchuck, whistle-pig, or land-beaver) sees its shadow, then we will have six more weeks of winter, while no shadow predicts an early Spring. However, last I checked Winter will always end on March 21 when the Spring Equinox begins. But somehow every year on February 2 we turn our attention to the PA-based rodent to provide us with a useless prediction on what to expect over the next several weeks. This tradition started in the 1700's in Pennsylvania with the German settlers who lived there. They are called Pennsylvania Dutch today (but The Northeast Quadrant calls them Amish)!

In other related news, PETA announced this past week that they would like to see Phil replaced with a robotic groundhog! Here's a dramatic, yet accurate representation!

Atmospheric Inversion: Utah's Winter Woe

What is an atmospheric inversion? And why every winter is it the talk of the town (city) in Salt Lake?

Meteorologically speaking, an inversion is a deviation from the normal change of an atmospheric property with altitude. Big deal right? Here's why...

When a warm air mass moves over another cold, dense, air mass -- as it often does during winter in northern Utah's Salt Lake Valley, that colder air mass settles into the land-locked valley, becomes heavy; and because of its weight and lack of wind movement at lower elevations, it cannot move. The end result is a visibly stagnant air mass in the form of low clouds, fog and/or haze.

So again, why is this a big deal? An inversion can lead to extremely dangerous pollution such as smog being trapped close to the ground, with possible adverse effects on health. This is why, believe it or not, Utah, has some of the worst air quality in the United States.

How does an inversion disappear? Typically an inversion only occurs when high pressure is dominating the troposphere (the lower region of the earth's atmosphere). During high pressure air sinks and becomes trapped. But when a low pressure system is overhead air rises, therefore lifting the inversion from the valley and disintegrating its associated pollutants from the earth's surface.

So what's the catch? If you like fair, sunny weather, deal with the inversion. If you don't want to deal with the inversion, you'll have to deal with it being stormy.

For those followers who needed a better understanding of what the inversion was, I hope The Northeast Quadrant was able to help!