"1-11-11" Northeast Snowstorm Final Totals

In the previous blog post you will find my predictions for the snowstorm that just concluded in the New York City area. While at this time a blizzard still rages in New England, especially for the cities of Providence, Rhode Island and Boston, Massachusetts, I felt confident creating this final snowfall total map, which reflects general accumulations reported throughout the northeast, thus far.

In my opinion, I did pretty darn well with my forecast. Compare this final map to those below!



Legend:
Green: 18"+
Red: 12"-18"
Purple: 6-12"
Blue: 4-8"
Yellow: 2-4"
Orange: 1-3"...

One important thing to note..

This storm deposited a total of 10.2" of fresh snow here in Gramercy Park, New York City. With the snow pack that was already on the ground, that brings the current total snow pack to about 16". The season to date snowfall is now at about 33", and it is only the second week of January! The seasonal average snowfall for New York City is around 25" so we are already in another well-above average winter season!

Finally, check out this radar image during the height of the storm last night! Just incredible!



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"1-11-11" Northeast Snowstorm Forecast

For those of you that have been following The Northeast Quadrant on Facebook, you will notice tons of coverage on the last two winter storms.

I've taken pride in really getting a handle on the computer models that forecast these storms, as well as air patterns and historical happenings associated with big northeast snowfalls. That said, I pretty much nailed the last blizzard forecast, so I thought hey, let me try again!

As another major snowstorm is on tap for the northeast, especially from Philadelphia to Boston, here is my thinking, which I am actually quite confident on...

4:30 pm UPDATE:

Map:

*Color legend is below.

By location:
Eastern Long Island through Providence and Boston: 12-18"+
New York City metro north and east: 8-12"+
New York City metro south: 5-8"+
Philly metro to central NJ coast: 3-6"+
North of Baltimore to south Philly metro: 2-4"+
Baltimore metro: 1-3"+
DC metro: generally less than 1"

While this update points to somewhat specific locations receiving somewhat specific amounts, each amount is followed by a "+" -- indicating the fate is in the development of the storm and the convective banding it produces.


As of 1:30 pm:

Map:


Legend:
Working from the green area that includes Boston as the having the highest snowfall totals, to the yellow area in Pennsylvania and New York state having the lowest, you can see where 'I think' the greatest accumulations will 'range,' and within that 'range' the totals 'could' vary greatly.

By location:
Hartford to Boston: 18"+
New York City metro: 12"+
Philly to NYC metro and the south central NJ coast: 6-12"
North of Baltimore to southwest of the Philly metro: 4-8"
Baltimore metro: 2-4"
DC metro: generally less than 2"

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Winter 2010–2011 Forecast Summary

Over the past few weeks a variety of winter forecasts were released to the public, all of which are hinting at another season of extremes for the United States.

While the extremes of last winter will likely not be felt in the same regions, with this coming winter a new round of crazy weather could be in store for areas far removed from the 2010 blizzard-plagued mid-Atlantic and northeast.

To make it easier for you, here's a regional summary of pretty much every forecast released:

Pacific Northwest: Colder and wetter than average. La Niña often brings lower than average temperatures and increased mountain snow to the Pacific Northwest and western Montana during the winter months, which is good for the replenishment of water resources and winter recreation but can also lead to greater flooding and avalanche concerns.

Southwest: Warmer and drier than average. This will likely exacerbate drought conditions in these areas. All southern states are at risk of having above normal wildfire conditions starting this winter and lasting into the spring.

Northern Plains: Colder and wetter than average. Likely to see increased storminess and flooding.

Southern Plains, Gulf Coast States & Southeast: Warmer and drier than average. This will likely exacerbate drought conditions in these areas. All southern states are at risk of having above normal wildfire conditions starting this winter and lasting into the spring.

Florida: Drier than average, with an equal chance for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures. Above normal wildfire conditions.

Ohio and Tennessee Valleys: Warmer and wetter than average. Likely to see increased storminess and flooding.

Northeast and Mid-Atlantic: Equal chances for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures and precipitation. Winter weather for these regions is often driven not by La Niña but by weather patterns over the northern Atlantic Ocean and Arctic. These are often more short-term, and are generally predictable only a week or so in advance. If enough cold air and moisture are in place, areas north of the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast could see above-average snow.

Central U.S.: Equal chances of above-near-or below normal temperatures and precipitation.

Hawaii: Drier than normal through November, then wetter than normal December through February. Statewide, the current drought is expected to continue through the winter, with several locations remaining on track to become the driest year on record. Drought recovery is more likely on the smaller islands of Kauai and Molokai, and over the windward slopes of the Big Island and Maui.

Alaska: Odds favor colder than average temperatures with equal chances of above or below normal precipitation. The interior and southern portions of the state are currently drier than normal. A dry winter may set Alaska up for a greater chance of above normal wildfire conditions in the spring.

Courtesy NWS

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Report Suggest New Strategies for Better Climate Predictions

A recent report by the National Academy of Sciences analyzes climate predictions and the difficult reality of the complex interactions between Earth's ocean, atmosphere and land; and the role they play in determining long-range climate forecasts. The report, "Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability," is the result of a NOAA requested study and recommends strategies and best practices for improving these complex and difficult predictions.

People all over the world rely on accurate short-term climate forecasts on timescales ranging from a few weeks to a few years to make more informed decisions. To that extent the report is recommending the following in dealing with the key shortcomings and strategies needed to make more accurate climate forecasts:

• Continue research to better understand and use information from key sources of climate predictability, and interactions between the ocean and atmosphere, atmosphere and land, as well as volcanic eruptions, greenhouse gases and land use changes.
  
  
• Improve the basic building blocks of climate forecasts through better physical climate models, making more sustained physical observations, better incorporating observations into forecast systems, and increasing collaboration between forecast agencies and stakeholders in developing and implementing forecast strategies.
  
  
• Adopt best practices such as working more closely with research communities, particularly universities; making data that feed into and come out of forecasts publicly available; minimizing subjective forecast components; and using forecast metrics that better convey to the public the probability aspects of forecasts.
  

The report also highlights Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) events and their powerful influence on making climate predictions and long-term weather patterns. MJO events have been known to trigger the beginning and end of the Asian and Indian monsoons and influence the development and evolution of El Niño, hurricanes and weather in Earth's mid-latitudes. The report notes that scientists want to incorporate information about the MJO more accurately into the computer models that agencies around the world use to predict weather and climate.

For more information the complete report can be downloaded here.

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Slow Start to Hurricane Season... Violent Storms Still Expected

It's been a relatively quiet Atlantic hurricane season thus far. Nearly two months in and just one named storm – Hurricane Alex, and a tropical depression – #2, had caught the attention of storm chasers, meteorologists and weather enthusiasts alike.

The slow start has led to the downward revision in named storms this week by Weather Services International (WSI). WSI, a member of The Weather Channel companies, which provides professional on-air weather systems and forecasting tools for television, is now calling for 19 named storms, down from 20 in its June forecast. WSI is maintaining its outlook for 11 hurricanes and 5 majors, which is well above the 1950-2009 averages of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 majors. The company says although it cut its forecast, it still sees an active season with water temperatures and wind conditions conducive to violent storms.

Further, WSI's reliable computer models continue to indicate that the area from the Outer Banks of North Carolina northward to Maine is twice as likely as normal to experience a hurricane this year, and the threat to the Northeast coast this season is on a par with that in Florida and the Gulf coastal states.

My thoughts: Although we've had a pretty quiet start to the hurricane season things are going to begin heating up in a hurry! August through October is expected to be a very active period, painting a much different picture than June and July. Remember, this season is not only about the numbers and intensity, which may or may not meet expectations, but impact! See earlier blog post here.

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The Inexact Science of Tropical Forecasting

A recently published article in the Brownsville (Texas) Herald yielded evidence to the inexact science of tropical weather forecasting. The article caught my attention because tropical forecasts are often times frustrating for many as they are probably one of the most erratic predictions meteorologists deal with, and because the story comes from a news outlet in a region that recently dealt with the aberrant forecasts of Hurricane Alex.

Despite the fact that tropical forecasting has not changed much in the last 20 years, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is improving its ability to forecast storm intensity and tracks through its Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP). The Project aims to reduce the average errors of hurricane track and intensity forecasts by 20 percent within five years and 50 percent in 10 years with a forecast period out to seven days. The NHC will do so through the development of advanced hurricane models, data assimilation systems and through the optimal use of real observations.

Using regional data in the Brownsville area, the NHC is now studying six tropical cyclones — Tropical Storm Beryl in 2000, Tropical Storm Bertha in 2002, Hurricane Erika in 2003, Hurricane Emily in 2005, Hurricane Dolly in 2008 and last week’s Hurricane Alex.

Speaking of difficult forecasting, what better time than now to call attention to one of my most valued tropical forecasting and analysis resources – a blog called Eye of the Storm, written by meteorologist and storm chaser, Greg Nordstrom. I've been learning quite a bit from Greg and he said it best himself in his post, Tropics = TOUGH!, regarding system 96L (now Tropical Depression #2):

"This was one complex situation, and makes forecasting such a challenge... 96L has completely split, as the low-level center heads toward central Texas, and the mid-level center heads toward northern Mexico! This is a prime example why forecasting the tropics is extremely difficult!"

I encourage you all to follow Greg's blog at http://ldctstormchaser.blogspot.com, and be sure to keep close tabs on both The Northeast Quadrant and Eye of the Storm as I join Greg this hurricane season for the ultimate hurricane chase! You won't want to miss the footage!

And if you have not done so already, check out AccuWeather's exclusive video, Social Media's Influence on Storm Chasing, featuring both Greg and me as AccuWeather looks in-depth at how the ease of today's communication impacts your every day weather and news broadcasts.

Enjoy!

Comparing NOAA's Hurricane Forecast to Others

It seems I've been blogging for months about hurricane season predictions and for just as long I've been mentioning the long-awaited official forecast for the 2010 Atlantic season by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. All the hype was built up leading up to the expected release of their forecast last Thursday, just to find out it was delayed until today.

So alas, here it is – the official big daddy prediction we've been waiting for...

NOAA is predicting 14 to 23 named storms to form in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. Of those named storms, 8 to 14 should become hurricanes, including 3 to 7 majors. As there are only 21 names dedicated to storms in any given season, if we do reach the higher end of their forecast, we could easily push into the Greek alphabet, which has only happened once before in 2005

I'm not going to spend time reasoning why they are predicting such an active season – I think I beat that dead horse already! Here are a couple links to previous blog posts that touch on the predictors forecasters look at when issuing these seasonal hurricane forecasts:

• 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Why all the Hype?
  (posted Monday, May 17)
• The Science Behind Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts
  (posted Friday, April 23)
• Sea Temps, Atmospheric Conditions Favor Active Hurricane Season
  (posted Wednesday, April 14)

NOAA's hurricane forecasts have been accurate in 5 out of the 10 years in this decade. Their prediction was too low in 4 years, and too high in just one year: 2006. 8 of the 10 years in the decade saw above-average activity.

For reference, here are the other predictions I've already blogged about:

• 'Extreme' 2010 Hurricane Season? Predictions Rolling In...
  (released Wednesday, March 10 by AccuWeather's Joe Bastardi)
• Hurricane Pioneer Calls for 15 Storms, 8 Hurricanes, 4 Major
  (released Wednesday, April 7 by Colorado State University's Dr. William Gray)

Good thing I grabbed hold of some extra dry erase markers and sticky hurricane symbols for my tracking chart – looks like I'm surely going need them!

2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Why all the Hype?

On the heels of already alarming predictions of an active 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) will issue its official forecast this Thursday, May 20.

AccuWeather issued its forecast earlier this Spring, calling for an extreme season, and just last week noted we might even be looking at a top 10! Several weeks ago hurricane pioneer, Dr. William Gray of Colorado State University, issued his forecast, calling for an above average season. So with all this talk about what lies ahead in coming months, and as we prepare for this week's forecast by the CPC, let's talk about all the hype surrounding the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. After all, last year was one of the quietest in decades...

Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs)
SSTs in the Atlantic's main tropical development region have been some of the warmest recorded this early in the year. The main development region is the area where virtually all African waves turn into tropical entities. They traverse across these warm waters and generally account for 85 percent of all Atlantic major hurricanes and 60 percent of all named storms. Seeing as this area is already experiencing warmer than average SSTs, historically it does not bode well for the hurricane season.

El Niño vs. La Niña
Climate experts declare El Niño to be over. As El Niño years tend to have fewer storms than normal in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico, the conclusion of this year's El Niño could mean a more active season than the previous two. So-called La Niña years, when the Pacific is colder than usual, can lead to an increase in Atlantic hurricanes.

Wind and Ocean
High and low pressure systems over the Atlantic work to slow the trade winds. The trade winds this hurricane season are forecast to be relatively light, promoting storm development. Meanwhile, when there is a strong ocean current moving to the north, as is the case this year, it is able to draw warm water from southern latitudes into the region where hurricanes form. When the two work together, hurricane seasons most definitely tend to be busier.

African Dust
A wetter than normal weather pattern in the African desert regions have kept the amount of dust that becomes airborne in the atmosphere to a minimum. Typically, when this dust enters the atmosphere and moves across the Atlantic, it inhibits storm growth, therefore affecting overall tropical storm formation. This does not seem to be a major factor this year.

Well there you have it – several major indicators supporting predictions for an extremely active hurricane season. More on this when the CPC issues their forecast this Thursday!

NEQ Friday Review, V.2

The subject of today’s NEQ Friday Review is tornado talk!

Dozens of twisters were spawned this week from violent supercell thunderstorms marching their way across the Great Plains. In the true line of fire was Oklahoma where as many as six EF-3 tornadoes were responsible for leveling houses, flipping cars and dropping hail as big as softballs. Two people (revised from five) were killed and dozens more injured.

But why?! Forecasts warned of tornadoes days in advance. They even predicted almost to the hour when the twisters might strike. How did they do it!?

Supercomputers!!! Years ago computer models were capable of forecasting storms two days in advance and meteorologists needed to rely heavily on radar and storm spotters to confirm the location, size and strength of tornadoes. But nowadays meteorologists use supercomputers that crunch large amounts of atmospheric data well in advance of an imminent threat of severe weather, and therefore provide them the power to warn of oncoming storms long before they strike – even weeks!

So then what went wrong?! In my opinion it’s ignorance. Tornadoes occur frequently in Oklahoma and severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings are almost a weekly occurrence at this time of year. Despite the advance warnings, many people disregarded blaring sirens that indicate a tornado is about to crush them! I mean, television stations even showed motorists clogging roadways as tornadoes were forming, just watching in shear awe – and never knowing what uncanny path the tornado would take. Perhaps the population has become desensitized to the seriousness of these storms. Easily they were in harm’s way.

Well, geez… come to think of it, I would be right there with them! Anything for the shot!

Have a great weekend and stay safe!

Paleotempestology: The History of Hurricanes

One of the best things about writing blog posts for The Northeast Quadrant is that I'm constantly learning new things about something I'm so passionate about. So naturally today when I was reading an article about long-term hurricane forecasting and came across the term paleotempestology, I was all kinds of like What?! Really??!

This crazy word I've never heard, which by the way spell check does NOT recognize, is the study of past tropical cyclone activity by means of geological proxies as well as historical documentary records. Hmmm... interesting. Well, it turns out this science is slowly proving that hurricane activity can be predicted decades in advance.

So, how does it work? In order to gain a perspective on prior hurricanes and predict future trends, researchers study proxy data such as sand layers deposited by storms behind barrier islands, changes in coral chemistry, variations in tree-ring patterns growing in coastal areas, and historical documents that include ships' logs and newspaper accounts. These sources of hurricane information build a picture of hurricane activity for the past hundreds and thousands of years.

Last month, hurricane pioneer Dr. William Gray of Colorado State University issued his forecast for the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. Gray uses 60+ years of data on sea surface temperature, atmospheric pressure and winds to make his annual predictions. He says, “We assume the future is going to behave similarly to how the past has behaved.”

However, according to a recent article, predicting the number and intensity of hurricanes before they spawn in the Atlantic has been a hit-or-miss proposition, even just a few months before hurricane season begins.

Experts in the field of paleotempestology say such predictions, should they continue to validate, could provide insurers, homeowners and policymakers an opportunity to adapt by changing land-use policies, strengthening building codes and preserving or restoring natural mitigation by wetlands, floodplains, and beach and dune systems.

Hey, maybe there really is something to this paleotempestology thing... but until I can successfully pronounce it, I'm just going with paleohurricanescience!

The Science Behind Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts

I am almost certain by now you’ve heard the forecast for an extremely active 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. With experts are predicting 15 named storms, including 8 hurricanes, and 4 majors to develop this year, along with a 69 percent chance of at least one hurricane striking the United States coastline, it’s quite obvious atmospheric indicators are pointing towards an above-average season. But what are those indicators? What is the science behind seasonal forecasts?

Well, there needs to be sound physical arguments for how certain predictors impact tropical cyclones. The predictors in place ahead of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season were in place during the epic hurricane seasons of 1998 and 2005. Interesting, right? Those predictors are:

El Niño – El Niño produces strong wind shear, which suppresses hurricane formation. Created out of an abnormal warming of the Eastern Pacific Ocean, El Niño is forecast to fade before the heart of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season.

Sea Surface Temperatures – When the tropical Atlantic is abnormally warm, hurricane season likely will be more active. The tropical Atlantic was the warmest ever for March and is expected to continue heating up.

Wind Patterns – High and low pressure systems over the Atlantic work to slow the trade winds. The trade winds are forecast to be relatively light, promoting storm development.

Ocean Circulation – When there is a strong ocean current moving to the north, as is the case this year, hurricane season tends to be busier. This circulation pattern works to draw warm water from southern latitudes into the region where hurricanes form.

Natural Cycle – Because of a natural cycle known as the multi-decadal signal (or oscillation), warm water shifts from the North Atlantic to the tropical region where storms tend to develop. The multi-decadal signal is currently in a warmer phase.

So it seems there is very strong scientific basis supporting the forecasts that have been made thus far. But keep in mind that while one can forecast an active season, there is no real science to predict who will be affected, as this is largely determined by specific atmospheric conditions in place while the storms are actually spinning.

Only time will tell how the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season shapes up! Stay tuned, and be ready…