It's been a relatively quiet Atlantic hurricane season thus far. Nearly two months in and just one named storm – Hurricane Alex, and a tropical depression – #2, had caught the attention of storm chasers, meteorologists and weather enthusiasts alike.The slow start has led to the downward revision in named storms this week by Weather Services International (WSI). WSI, a member of The Weather Channel companies, which provides professional on-air weather systems and forecasting tools for television, is now calling for 19 named storms, down from 20 in its June forecast. WSI is maintaining its outlook for 11 hurricanes and 5 majors, which is well above the 1950-2009 averages of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 majors. The company says although it cut its forecast, it still sees an active season with water temperatures and wind conditions conducive to violent storms.
Further, WSI's reliable computer models continue to indicate that the area from the Outer Banks of North Carolina northward to Maine is twice as likely as normal to experience a hurricane this year, and the threat to the Northeast coast this season is on a par with that in Florida and the Gulf coastal states.
My thoughts: Although we've had a pretty quiet start to the hurricane season things are going to begin heating up in a hurry! August through October is expected to be a very active period, painting a much different picture than June and July. Remember, this season is not only about the numbers and intensity, which may or may not meet expectations, but impact! See earlier blog post here.
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