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A recently published article in the Brownsville (Texas) Herald yielded evidence to the inexact science of tropical weather forecasting. The article caught my attention because tropical forecasts are often times frustrating for many as they are probably one of the most erratic predictions meteorologists deal with, and because the story comes from a news outlet in a region that recently dealt with the aberrant forecasts of Hurricane Alex.
Despite the fact that tropical forecasting has not changed much in the last 20 years, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is improving its ability to forecast storm intensity and tracks through its Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP). The Project aims to reduce the average errors of hurricane track and intensity forecasts by 20 percent within five years and 50 percent in 10 years with a forecast period out to seven days. The NHC will do so through the development of advanced hurricane models, data assimilation systems and through the optimal use of real observations.
Using regional data in the Brownsville area, the NHC is now studying six tropical cyclones — Tropical Storm Beryl in 2000, Tropical Storm Bertha in 2002, Hurricane Erika in 2003, Hurricane Emily in 2005, Hurricane Dolly in 2008 and last week’s Hurricane Alex.
Speaking of difficult forecasting, what better time than now to call attention to one of my most valued tropical forecasting and analysis resources – a blog called Eye of the Storm, written by meteorologist and storm chaser, Greg Nordstrom. I've been learning quite a bit from Greg and he said it best himself in his post, Tropics = TOUGH!, regarding system 96L (now Tropical Depression #2):
"This was one complex situation, and makes forecasting such a challenge... 96L has completely split, as the low-level center heads toward central Texas, and the mid-level center heads toward northern Mexico! This is a prime example why forecasting the tropics is extremely difficult!"
I encourage you all to follow Greg's blog at http://ldctstormchaser.blogspot.com, and be sure to keep close tabs on both The Northeast Quadrant and Eye of the Storm as I join Greg this hurricane season for the ultimate hurricane chase! You won't want to miss the footage!
And if you have not done so already, check out AccuWeather's exclusive video, Social Media's Influence on Storm Chasing, featuring both Greg and me as AccuWeather looks in-depth at how the ease of today's communication impacts your every day weather and news broadcasts.
Enjoy!
Hurricane Alex is spinning its way closer to the northeast Mexico coast today and should make landfall somewhere near La Pesca late tonight.
The storm, just upgraded to a hurricane a little over 12 hours ago, has for several days been stirring up the waters of the southern Gulf of Mexico, and despite its long distance from the site of the Deepwater Horizon spill, large waves and choppy seas propagating away from Alex's center are already hampering oil clean up efforts.
Here's what's happening now...
- Hurricane Alex is a HUGE storm! The outer bands of the hurricane are spreading out hundreds of miles from the center of circulation and are bringing with them to the northeast Gulf heavy rain and large waves as high as 12 feet.
- In at least one area of coastal Louisiana, the waves were tossing oil-soaking boom around and forcing crews to take precious time putting it back in place. The fear here is oil crashing over the booms, therefore compromising containment.
- Due to thunderstorms and high seas, all near-shore skimmers have been idled off the coasts of Florida, Alabama and Mississippi.
- Although minimal, the winds from Hurricane Alex are causing oily waves to slam into Gulf coast beaches, washing away progress already made. Tar balls have reportedly popped up on Louisiana beaches that had been relatively oil-free for a few weeks.
Need I go on, folks? Keep in mind this category 1 hurricane is hundreds of miles away from the oil slick and weak in comparison to what could come closer in days, weeks and months ahead. If Alex is creating this many issues, just imagine what could happen when a much more significant storm heads that way!
All eyes this week will be on the central Atlantic and Caribbean Sea as disturbance 92L tries to spin its way up to the first tropical cyclone of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. Computer models vary on the future intensity of this system, but there are favorable indications that it will become a tropical storm, and perhaps in a few days time, a hurricane. If it does so its name would be Alex.
A could-be rare tropical event, only one named storm has ever formed this far out in the Atlantic during the month of June, and that was Tropical Storm Ana in 1979.
Working in the system's favor is very warm sea surface temperatures, good outflow, plenty of moisture and low wind shear values along its west-northwestward path. However, it should be noted that even if this entity does not become Alex, the long range computer models are forecasting plenty of activity across the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) over the next couple weeks, which, with favorable atmospheric conditions, could lead to additional tropical cyclone development in the eastern and central Atlantic region over the next 2 to 3 weeks.
As always, The Northeast Quadrant will keep you posted!
