Sunday, June 13, 2010

Will 92L Become Alex?

All eyes this week will be on the central Atlantic and Caribbean Sea as disturbance 92L tries to spin its way up to the first tropical cyclone of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. Computer models vary on the future intensity of this system, but there are favorable indications that it will become a tropical storm, and perhaps in a few days time, a hurricane. If it does so its name would be Alex.

A could-be rare tropical event, only one named storm has ever formed this far out in the Atlantic during the month of June, and that was Tropical Storm Ana in 1979.

Working in the system's favor is very warm sea surface temperatures, good outflow, plenty of moisture and low wind shear values along its west-northwestward path. However, it should be noted that even if this entity does not become Alex, the long range computer models are forecasting plenty of activity across the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) over the next couple weeks, which, with favorable atmospheric conditions, could lead to additional tropical cyclone development in the eastern and central Atlantic region over the next 2 to 3 weeks.

As always, The Northeast Quadrant will keep you posted!