Disaster Model Assesses Oil Slick vs. Hurricane

A recent report by Risk Management Solutions (RMS), a company with expertise in the quantification and management of catastrophe risks, further indicates the high potential for a tropical storm or hurricane to pass over and through the gulf oil spill. Wonderful news, right? Ugh, keep reading...

RMS' disaster model is predicting a 13 percent chance that a hurricane will pass over the oil slick and a 7 percent chance that a Category 3 or higher storm hits the slick, which is higher than in an average storm season, when there would be a 4 percent chance of a major hurricane directly hitting the region. A tropical cyclone moving through the slick would bring with it the potential for storm surge to carry tar deposits far inland.

RMS also believes there is about a 15 percent chance that a hurricane or tropical storm comes within 100 miles of the slick by the end of this month (July), and about a 40 percent chance that one does so by the end of August. A storm passing that close to the slick has the potential to bring high waves that break protective booms and allow the oil to be displaced into coastal salt marshes and beaches above the tide line.

Among many of RMS' key niches is providing disaster assessment to insurance companies, and it says the still-growing oil spill will cost insurers between $1 and $3 billion dollars.

It is important to note that residue deposited from oil spill on privately owned property or land as a result of a major hurricane would not be covered by homeowners insurance. Consequently, costs for land-based clean up could be picked up by British Petroleum (BP).

RMS expects the oil spill will have a significant and long-lasting impact on offshore energy insurance availability, rates, and coverages.

Finally, the RMS report concludes that costs for deepwater drilling in the waters off the United States' coastlines will be significantly increased as a result of the inevitable creation of a new offshore regulatory agency.

Time will tell how this all shapes up, but most importantly, be hurricane AND oil ready!

Large Hurricane Alex Aggrevates Oil Slick

Hurricane Alex is spinning its way closer to the northeast Mexico coast today and should make landfall somewhere near La Pesca late tonight.

The storm, just upgraded to a hurricane a little over 12 hours ago, has for several days been stirring up the waters of the southern Gulf of Mexico, and despite its long distance from the site of the Deepwater Horizon spill, large waves and choppy seas propagating away from Alex's center are already hampering oil clean up efforts.

Here's what's happening now...

• Hurricane Alex is a HUGE storm! The outer bands of the hurricane are spreading out hundreds of miles from the center of circulation and are bringing with them to the northeast Gulf heavy rain and large waves as high as 12 feet.
  
  
• In at least one area of coastal Louisiana, the waves were tossing oil-soaking boom around and forcing crews to take precious time putting it back in place. The fear here is oil crashing over the booms, therefore compromising containment.
  
  
• Due to thunderstorms and high seas, all near-shore skimmers have been idled off the coasts of Florida, Alabama and Mississippi.
  
  
• Although minimal, the winds from Hurricane Alex are causing oily waves to slam into Gulf coast beaches, washing away progress already made. Tar balls have reportedly popped up on Louisiana beaches that had been relatively oil-free for a few weeks.
  

Need I go on, folks? Keep in mind this category 1 hurricane is hundreds of miles away from the oil slick and weak in comparison to what could come closer in days, weeks and months ahead. If Alex is creating this many issues, just imagine what could happen when a much more significant storm heads that way!

Miles of Gulf Pipeline at the Mercy of Hurricanes

As if the current environmental disaster in the Gulf is not enough, a new report published in the journal, Geophysical Research Letters, is highlighting the potential for a hurricane (or hurricanes) this season to create strong enough underwater waves to dig up and potentially sever oil pipelines that run across the ocean floor, therefore complicating the already compromising situation.

At least 31,000 miles of pipelines snake across Gulf and hurricanes have long been known to cause a range of damage to them. In the wake of Hurricane Katrina in 2005 there were 299 reports of damage to pipelines, just to be followed by 243 reports later that season from Hurricane Rita – so there is clear evidence that not only could a hurricane exacerbate the current spill, it could cause another one.

How does it happen? Historically speaking, the howling winds of hurricanes can generate strong currents along the sea floor, therefore scouring the seabed, picking up sediment from some places and piling it up in others. This scouring of sediment has the ability to create underwater horizontal mudslides that could lead to the damaged oil pipelines.

The problem does not just lie on the sea floor, however. A strong hurricane along with its gusty winds and towering waves could also topple oil rigs that line the northern Gulf. After the Deepwater Horizon rig exploded in April, it also toppled into the sea. Just something to think about…

Meanwhile, check out the above image of an oil rig beached in Dauphin Island, Alabama after Katrina!Found miles from its usual position in the Gulf, that rig in particular produced 40,000 barrels of oil and 60 million cubic feet of gas per day!

Haiti vs. Oil Slick: The 'What If's' of Hurricane Season

Today is the first day of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season and while currently there are no imminent significant tropical threats, on the minds of many is... 'what if' a hurricane does slams into earthquake-ravaged Haiti, and 'what if' one does in fact swirl through the Gulf oil slick?

While the likelihood of one or both of these scenarios playing out over the next 183 (or more) days is quite likely given their location and climatological history being affected by tropical systems, just a mere glancing blow could be devastating. But which is the bigger concern? Here are some of the facts...

Haiti
Now more than ever, an intense tropical system affecting Haiti could prove catastrophic, and such a situation could potentially complicate difficult humanitarian relief operations following the devastating 7.0 magnitude earthquake on January 12. As it stands now, vast swathes of Haiti are devoid of greenery, soil-holding roots, trees or grasses. Centuries of deforestation as a result of mother nature's beating has left the entire country a mudslide waiting to happen. Excessive rainfall could bring to the country an increasing threat of disease and mudslides, among other hazards to the 1.7 million Haitians currently living in tent cities after losing their homes in the quake. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has already set up better communications with Haiti to alert them to possible threats, but they know it won't be enough because there is really nowhere for them to go if a storm should threaten.

Oil Slick
Although nearly 7 million gallons of oil have already spilled into the Gulf of Mexico, the oil isn't covering enough of the warm waters that feed tropical storms to alter their development, and therefore it is not likely to have a significant impact on hurricane intensity. If a hurricane swirls through the slick it may help break up the oil, but if one were to make landfall just west of the spill it could drive the oil inland on surging seawater. On the same note, a hurricane passing to the east of the slick could drive the oil away from the coast. Additionally, the high winds and seas could mix and weather the oil, which could help accelerate the bio-degradation process. A hurricane could also disperse oil further than its current location. Because there's no record of a hurricane ever crossing paths with a large oil spill, nobody knows for sure exactly what environmental impact it would have in this situation, but one could imagine it would just add to the ecological misery already occurring.

Check out NOAA's oil spill response fact sheet [PDF].

Feared Environmental Tragedy of Gulf Oil Spill Slowly Becoming Reality

Estimates of oil leaking from the Deepwater Horizon rig in the Gulf of Mexico have risen from 42,000 gallons a day to 210,000 gallons a day, with some indications that the flow may even be much greater. This situation now threatens wide-scale coastal damage for four Gulf Coast states: Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida.

Weather Plays a Role

Over the past couple weeks since the spill occurred the weather had been somewhat favorable in containing the oil over open waters, keeping it from making landfall, but with an onshore wind shift and a reversing weather patten, the scale of the oil spill is rapidly multiplying and could very well become an environmental tragedy.

Here are the facts from NOAA:

• Winds are forecast to become strong (20+ kts) and blow from the southeast starting tomorrow and continuing through the weekend, which will continue to push surface oil towards shore.
  
  
• Oil-spill trajectory analyses indicate that oil continues to move towards shore.
  
  
• Oil-containment booms (or floating barriers) have been deployed as a precaution to protect sensitive areas in the Louisiana area.
  
  
• The effects of oil on sensitive habitats and shorelines in Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida are being evaluated should oil from the incident make landfall in appreciable quantities.
  
  
• NOAA’s Assessment and Restoration Division is evaluating concerns about potential injuries of oil and dispersants to fish, human use of fisheries, marine mammals, turtles, and sensitive resources.

Tragic Environmental Impacts

Following are some possible impacts on the Gulf environment, commercial fisheries, wildlife and tourism:

• Fisheris – A number of fisheries could suffer as a result of the spill. The northern Gulf of Mexico is a crucial spawning ground at this time of the year for the Atlantic population of Bluefin Tuna, which is critically endangered. Their eggs float near the surface and the larvae stay there after they first hatch. So, the spill has occurred at a critical time in their life-cycle. The spill could dramatically decrease the amount of Bluefin Tuna larvae that are surviving. Losses could also be inflicted on the shrimp and oyster industries in Louisiana. Oysters are filter feeders and cannot swim to escape the slick.
  
  
• Birdlife – Several areas that are important to bird populations could be potentially affected. According to the National Audubon Society, places it has designated as "Important Bird Areas" or IBAs that could be threatened by the slick include, Chandeleur Islands IBA and Gulf Islands National Seashore IBA in Louisiana and Mississippi; also in Louisiana, the Delta National Wildlife Refuge and Pass-a-Loutre Wildlife Management Area. Species at risk include, Louisiana's state bird, the Brown Pelican, which was only removed from the U.S. Endangered Species Act last year. They nest on barrier islands and feed near shore.
  
  
• Tourism – Depending on where the slick goes, a number of beaches could be adversely impacted in areas such as the northwestern part of Florida, which has been running televised ads aimed at attracting tourists to the area.
  
  
• Others - Several species of sea turtles are currently moving through the Gulf, as their spring nesting seasons commences and they need to surface to breathe, so the slick at the water's top could damage their populations.

Environmental Disaster Looms for Gulf of Mexico

Officials Fear Oil Leak from Sunken Rig Could Damage Gulf Coast Beaches, Barrier Islands and Wetland Habitats

Efforts to clear up an oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico as a result of last week's explosion and sinking of BP's offshore rig have been suspended because of bad weather, sparking further concern of an environmental disaster. Even though BP is using a robot submarine and dozens of clean-up vessels and aircraft to try to slow and stop the leaking oil, the company estimates that 1,000 barrels (or 42,000 gallons) of oil a day are now polluting the northern Gulf, and the oil is slowly spreading towards the Louisiana and Mississippi coastlines.

According to the joint U.S. Government and Oil Industry Task Force, it could take months to stop the leak. Although the oil is not flowing directly from the well, but from the damaged rig pipes, and is therefore being released at a somewhat constrained rate, the effort to stop it will be complex and difficult. If current operations fail, the next option is to drill a relief well — a process that would take at least two to three months. Experts are also looking at the "Katrina Solution." After the 2005 mega-hurricane slammed into the Gulf Coast blasting through the same set of oil rigs, a dome or cone-shaped structure to corral the oil before it could make its way to the Gulf Coast was put in place.

The spill now covers about one-fifth of a remote national wildlife refuge near the mouth of the Mississippi River, and another 120 square miles in the Gulf of Mexico. Although the ultimate environmental impact is yet to be determined, the goal of the U.S. Coast Guard is to continue securing the source of the subsurface oil emanating from the well, clean the oil on the surface of the water, and keep the response well offshore — therefore trying to eliminate any impact at the coast.