Tuesday, January 11, 2011

"1-11-11" Northeast Snowstorm Forecast

For those of you that have been following The Northeast Quadrant on Facebook, you will notice tons of coverage on the last two winter storms.

I've taken pride in really getting a handle on the computer models that forecast these storms, as well as air patterns and historical happenings associated with big northeast snowfalls. That said, I pretty much nailed the last blizzard forecast, so I thought hey, let me try again!

As another major snowstorm is on tap for the northeast, especially from Philadelphia to Boston, here is my thinking, which I am actually quite confident on...

4:30 pm UPDATE:


*Color legend is below.

By location:
Eastern Long Island through Providence and Boston: 12-18"+
New York City metro north and east: 8-12"+
New York City metro south: 5-8"+
Philly metro to central NJ coast: 3-6"+
North of Baltimore to south Philly metro: 2-4"+
Baltimore metro: 1-3"+
DC metro: generally less than 1"

While this update points to somewhat specific locations receiving somewhat specific amounts, each amount is followed by a "+" -- indicating the fate is in the development of the storm and the convective banding it produces.

As of 1:30 pm:


Working from the green area that includes Boston as the having the highest snowfall totals, to the yellow area in Pennsylvania and New York state having the lowest, you can see where 'I think' the greatest accumulations will 'range,' and within that 'range' the totals 'could' vary greatly.

By location:
Hartford to Boston: 18"+
New York City metro: 12"+
Philly to NYC metro and the south central NJ coast: 6-12"
North of Baltimore to southwest of the Philly metro: 4-8"
Baltimore metro: 2-4"
DC metro: generally less than 2"

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