Northeast Tornadoes Fail this Weekend. Why?

This past weekend featured two solid days of severe weather in the northeast accompanied by torrential rains and scattered violent storms containing damaging winds, hail and even funnel clouds. That's right... funnel clouds! Tornado watches were posted for a good part of the day Saturday for New England, and those watches extended southwards into the mid-Atlantic on Sunday. But while tornado activity was heightened in the cornfields of the rural midwest this past weekend, not too much actually materialized for the hilly terrain of the northeast or along the city-sprawling I-95 corridor.

OK, why the descriptive detail? Well, I've been reading several blogs about the subject this weekend and even this morning, and I want to set something straight about the myth (yes, it's a myth) that tornadoes don't occur, or are hard to form, in both mountainous terrain and cities alike.

While topography does influence how often tornadoes form, other stronger atmospheric processes determine where and when tornadoes form, meaning even those is rugged mountainous terrain are at risk. Storm systems that generate tornadoes over the midwest often rely on large amounts of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and high quantities of atmospheric energy which aren’t always available once systems cross the Appalachians. However, if those systems remain intact, these areas, such as the Northeastern United States, are equally susceptible.

Tornadoes in cities? I can easily recall several U.S. cities being hit by a tornado in the last decade or so... Oklahoma City, Fort Worth, St. Louis, Miami... even Salt Lake (both urban and mountainous)! But in the northeast? Not so much. While it is possible, the atmospheric dynamics explained above typically do not support the development of tornadoes reaching cities like New York, Boston and Philadelphia, per se. However, the fact is tornadoes have a long history of hitting big cities and when they do, they usually cause a great amount of damage because a lot more debris is generated.

In conclusion, the severe weather threat is long gone now and the weather is gorgeous! Sadly, residents in Ohio and Michigan were not so lucky as tornadoes there as strong as EF-3, have caused extensive damage and loss of life.

Mild days and cool nights are the rule this week in the northeast... enjoy it!

Warnings: A True Story of How Science Tamed the Weather

Some of you might have read on The Northeast Quadrant how I recently lost my entire reference library of weather novels and educational materials that once sat on the shelves of my bookcase. These materials were in storage in my parents basement in Edison, New Jersey when the March 2010 Daylight Savings Nor'easter flooded the region, their basement included. All my books were soaked, ruined, destroyed!

Well, now it's time to build that library back up! Lucky for me I came across an article about a new book by author Mike Smith, called Warnings: A True Story of How Science Tamed the Weather. It tells the story of how the national storm warning system came to be and how it saves so many lives.

Did you know that absent the national warning system, the average death rate from tornadoes would be greater than 1,000 a year? Did you know that the tornado death rate has been cut by 95 percent as a result of the system?

Warnings promises to take readers on a fast-paced account of the biggest storms in recent years and how weather forecasting has developed into a true science since the 1950s. Part memoir, part science account, Smith's tale begins in the late 1940s, when weathermen were actually forbidden to broadcast tornado warnings. The National Weather Service (NWS), then known as the United States Weather Bureau, blocked storm forecasting for fear of getting it wrong.

Sounds to me like another fascinating journey inside the world of weather! I think I'll grab a copy this week!

Severe Weather Awareness Week

Severe Weather Awareness Week kicked off this past weekend for the New York metropolitan region, and what better time than now to help explain some of the lingo you’ll often hear from weather forecasters across the nation during one of the most violent weather months of the year.

May is considered the heart of tornado season, but it’s not all about tornadoes, ya know... Over the last 20 years a variety of severe weather events has killed over 100 people in New York state alone, and has caused over three quarters of a billion dollars in damage. On average, the National Weather Service (NWS) issues 400 severe thunderstorm warnings, 17 tornado warnings and about 150 flash flood warnings each year in the Empire State. So, next time you hear word of any of these warnings, remember these definitions:

A severe thunderstorm watch is issued when severe thunderstorms capable of producing winds of at least 58 mph and or hail of at least one inch in diameter, are possible within the next few hours (typically less than six hours).

A severe thunderstorm warning means that severe thunderstorms are imminent or occurring, and could pose a significant threat to life and property.

A tornado watch means conditions are ripe for tornadoes to form and they could do so within the next few hours (typically less than six hours).

A tornado warning means a tornado is imminent or occurring, and has likely been visually spotted or indicated by Doppler radar. A tornado warning implies an immediate threat to life and property and appropriate shelter should be taken immediately.

A flash flood watch means conditions are favorable for flash flooding, which is a rapid rise (typically within six hours) of water along a stream or low lying urban area, most commonly resulting from downpours associated with severe thunderstorms.

A flash flood warning means flash flooding is imminent or occurring and flood waters can rise rapidly, if they have not already.