The Weathervein - Episode 5

The remnant low of Tropical Depression # 5 is about to re-emerge into the Gulf of Mexico and could once again threaten the Louisiana coastline over the next day or so. The organizing and strengthening system cold even become Tropical Storm [or hurricane] Danielle. For the latest on the developing tropical weather situation, check out this episode of The Weathervein!


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The Weathervein - Episode 4

This episode of The Weathervein was filmed yesterday, Friday the 13th, on the sixth anniversary of category 4 Hurricane Charley's landfall in southwest Florida, which left in its wake the largest path of destruction since Andrew in '92. The episode touches on Charley's legacy, as well as the remnant low of Tropical Depression # 5, and a briefing on the state of the tropics. Don't miss it!



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NEQ Friday Review, V.15

There continues to be a lot of speculation as to whether or not the predictions for an extreme hurricane season will validate. I continue to firmly argue they will, and that until we are in November and the season is nearly over, there is no room for disagreement.

Some of the nastiest, most high-impact seasons did not get going until September, and I really think this season will do the same. In 2001 the first hurricane did not even form until the second week of September – and then there ended up being a total of nine hurricanes that season! Just goes to show you...

I continue to encourage the hurricane season pessimists out there to hold their breath and stop mocking and bashing the experts who have far more experience predicting hurricanes than the spectators who are quick to call them out.

Now on a more reminiscent note from hurricanes past, this week’s NEQ Friday Review will look back at a historic northeastern hurricane through the eyes of a fan of The Northeast Quadrant. Here, Nick Panico, a secondary education science teacher from Suffolk County, Long Island, New York, tells his story of Hurricane Gloria from September 1985.

"I remember Hurricane Gloria even though I was only eight and a half years old at the time. My family was living in Mastic Beach, which is a small peninsula surrounded by the Atlantic to the South and the Bay to the east and west, in Suffolk County, Long Island. We were told to evacuate on the morning of September 25, 1985 because our house was located about .6 of a mile just north of the Bay.

Gloria was hyped up to be the Mega-Storm or Storm of the Century because it was a category 4 hurricane just south of North Carolina. Then, what normally saves New England, actually took place. Gloria came north, clipped the Outer Banks of North Carolina and weakened, later arriving in Long Island only as a category 1. Sources argue the hurricane’s true strength upon landfall, but I know the damage I saw would verify a category 1 storm. There was no electricity for 10 days so in the eyes of many, Gloria was considered a major hurricane.

Speaking of major hurricanes, I had recalled folks saying something about 1938, even thought I had no clue as to what they were talking about since I was so young. I later learned an intense hurricane barreled through the very soil I lived on, causing extensive damage and killing hundreds. After learning more about it I began my own extensive research on the 1938 Long Island Express.

Back to Gloria – the population at the time Gloria made landfall on Long Island was no way near as great as it is now. If a hurricane of Gloria’s strength made landfall now, the effect would be absolutely devastating. Besides the risk of extreme flooding from both tropical rains and that from storm surge, the increase in development over the last 20 years would lead to significant structural damage – to homes, businesses, and personal and public property alike. Agriculture would be greatly affected – the loss of trees and damage to farmland and vineyards that line Long Island’s north shore could suffer an extreme loss. Seeing what happens to these areas during a winter nor’easter, it is difficult to imagine what would happen if even a category 1 storm rolled through.”

Now you might be wondering why I am sharing Nick’s story. Well, if you’ve been keeping up with The Northeast Quadrant you know by now that the northeast is overdue for a hurricane landfall, and perhaps this year will be the year it happens.

I mentioned last week that the Atlantic is prime and the pattern set up now very much favors tropical cyclone activity to reach coastlines from the Gulf to the northeast. Experts have said areas from North Carolina to Maine have a chance nearly equal to that of Florida and the Gulf coast in being hit with a hurricane. It’s happened before, and it will happen again.

Have a great weekend and be hurricane ready!

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Russia Heat Wave is OUT OF CONTROL!

An insanely intense heat wave has plagued Russia for over one month now and it shows very little sign of letting up. Moscow has experienced at least 26 days in a row with temperatures exceeding 86 degrees Fahrenheit, and those conditions are expected to continue for at least the next several days.

The heat has caused numerous wildfires to break out which has polluted the stagnant air mass beyond control, and in recent days the carbon monoxide count in Moscow peaked at six times more than acceptable levels and record numbers of people are leaving the city to escape the harmful conditions.

For those unfortunate to not escape, the situation is dire. An estimated 5,000 people have already died from heat-related illness in Moscow alone. Local authorities report the daily mortality rate in the city has doubled and morgues are overflowing amid an acrid smog caused by the worst heatwave in Russia's thousand-year history.

According to Jeff Masters of Weather Underground, the current heat wave in Russia has been more intense than the infamous European heat wave of 2003, which killed an estimated 40,000 people. Masters also reports that the fires are the worst since 1972, when massive forest and peat bog fires burned an area of 100,000 square km and killed at 104 people in the Moscow region alone. Smoke from the current fires spans a region over 3,000 km (1,860 miles) from east to west, approximately the distance from San Francisco to Chicago.

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Analyzing Leh's Deadly Cloudburst

A devastating extreme weather event unfolded in the Leh district of Kashmir, India on Friday when a cloudburst produced a deluge of rain causing deadly flash floods and damaging mudslides. The epic event washed away government offices, paramilitary camps and residential homes; and claimed nearly 200 lives, injuring thousands and over 500 are still reported missing.

Leh is known as a 'high altitude desert' region and a heavy downpour is a rare occurrence. In trying to gain a better understanding of the formation of the cloudburst and why it produced such an intense rainfall rate, a physics team from the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, near New Delhi, will use an atmospheric supercomputer model to mimic the conditions 24 hours prior to the cloudburst that occurred between 12:30 a.m. – 1:30 a.m. on Friday.

In doing so they will simulate the sequence of events that gave rise to the colossal cloud that collapsed over the typically arid village. They will feed their supercomputer an enormous amount of data – temperature, wind and humidity, and solar radiation – and allow it to churn the numbers using a set of mathematical equations that dictate how the atmosphere will behave over time.

Weather observations from the past have indicated that cloudbursts usually occur during the monsoon – mainly in August – and over the western Himalayan region. The rain from a cloudburst, which descends from very high clouds, has a fall rate equal to or greater than 3.94 inches per hour. Most cloudbursts come from convective, cumulonimbus clouds that form thunderstorms. The extent of damage that a cloudburst could cause depends heavily on the terrain that is receiving the downpour.

The exact measurement of rain that fell during the cloudburst over Leh is still not available. But it is believed that nearly two inches of rain fell in minutes, continuing for a good thirty.

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NEQ Friday Review, V.14

The six costliest hurricanes in United States history have all occurred since 1992, with five of the six happening since 2004 – Hurricane Katrina in 2005 of course being the worst of all. Most of these storms took place during the month of August.

Speaking of August, we're not even one week into the first peak month of hurricane season, and to many, the season already is being considered a bust. But alas, tropical pessimists hold your breath! After reading today's NEQ Friday Review you might reconsider that thought.

I've been saying for months now it's not all about the numbers this season – it's about impact. The Atlantic is prime and the pattern set up now very much favors tropical cyclone activity to reach coastlines from the Gulf to the northeast. Let's look back at prior seasons with a similar set up...

1933
With 21 storms, the 1933 Atlantic hurricane season was the second most active on record. The season produced several deadly storms and all but one affected land at some point. 19 storms that season made landfall as tropical cyclones, and one as an extratropical storm. Of these, eight tropical storms, including six hurricanes, hit the United States alone, including the Chesapeake Potomac Hurricane, which is considered one of the most severe in history along the mid-Atlantic.

2004
The 2004 Atlantic hurricane season was one of the deadliest and most costly seasons on record. The season produced 16 tropical cyclones, including 15 tropical storms, nine hurricanes and six majors. The most noteworthy storms for the season were the five that made landfall in Florida and Alabama, three of which were majors. Those were Tropical Storm Bonnie and Hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne. What is important to note about this season is that when you compare it to the 2010 season thus far, we are already ahead!

2005
The impact of the 2005 season was widespread and severe to say the least, and conditions this year eerily mirror that of this epic season. A record 28 tropical and subtropical storms formed, of which a record 15 became hurricanes. Of these, seven strengthened into major hurricanes, while five became Category 4 hurricanes and four reached Category 5 strength. The storms of the 2005 season were extraordinarily damaging and were responsible for significant loss of life. The hardest-hit area was the United States Gulf Coast from eastern Texas to the Florida Panhandle. Of the storms that made landfall, five of the season's seven major hurricanes – Dennis, Emily, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma – were responsible for most of the destruction.

Now you might be wondering why I did not include 1992? After all, that was the year category 5 Hurricane Andrew barreled through south Florida and later made a second landfall along the Louisiana coast. Well, 1992 was a pretty quiet year. Sure it only takes one bad hurricane to have huge impacts, such as Andrew did... but the season itself was generally pretty quiet and non-comparable to the set up we have now.

So that's that - remember, it's not about the numbers so put your calculators away. The tropics are about to kick up in full force over the next several weeks so now is the time to brace for impact!

Have a great weekend and be hurricane ready!

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The Weathervein - Episode 3

Earlier this week Tropical Storm Colin came and went faster than the NHC wrote the first and final advisory, and now the low pressure it left behind is being monitored for regeneration. Meanwhile, hurricane pioneer Dr. Gray updated his forecast, still calling for a very active season! Learn more about it here on The Weathervein!



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Miami Named Florida's Most Vulnerable to Hurricane Winds

Miami, Florida is known for temperate weather, art deco, nightlife, pristine beaches, culture, shopping, The Golden Girls and... vulnerability.

Vulnerability you ask? According to a new study by researchers at Florida State University, when compared to 12 other cities in the Sunshine State, Miami was rated the most susceptible to damage from fierce winds associated with the strongest of hurricanes.

The study, "Risk of Strong Hurricane Winds to Florida Cities," will be published in the November issue of the American Meteorological Society's Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, and finds that when using a recently developed Hurricane Risk Calculator, extreme wind risk from tropical cyclones varies across the state.

The Hurricane Risk Calculator was formulated on a basis of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean from as far back as 1851, and it factors in monster storms like Andrew and Katrina, to determine how a variety of Florida cities fare in disastrous storms. Among those cities are Tallahassee, Orlando, Fort Meyers, Tampa, Pensacola, Key West, and of course Miami.

Using the Hurricane Risk Calculator, the researchers found that Miami can expect to see winds of 112 mph or stronger – that's a category 3 hurricane – once every 12 years on average. Miami last saw winds of that strength with Hurricane Wilma in 2005. By contrast, Tallahassee, the state's least vulnerable city, can expect to see winds of that speed only once every 500 years.

Learn more about the study and the Hurricane Risk Calculator here.

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Tropical Storm Colin: Charley's Replacement

Six years ago in August 2004 ferocious category 4 Hurricane Charley barreled into southwest Florida, producing severe damage as it made landfall near Port Charlotte. The strongest U.S. landfalling hurricane (at that time) since Andrew, Charley was retired from the rotating list of Atlantic tropical cyclone names, only to be replaced by Colin in 2010.

Well folks, earlier this morning Tropical Depression # 4 strengthened into Tropical Storm Colin, the third tropical cyclone of the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Tropical Storm Colin is heading in the general direction of the northern Antilles. But what's next? Learn more about Tropical Storm Colin's projected path and find out what else is brewing in the Atlantic Basin, and what it means for the weeks ahead when you tune into this episode of The Weathervein!



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INTRODUCING The Weathervein

I would like to introduce you to a compelling new online weather video talk show called The Weathervein.

The Weathervein is a collaborative effort between myself, Devin Matthew Toporek, the creator of The Northeast Quadrant, and Greg Nordstorm, creator of the blog, EYE OF THE STORM. The Weathevein offers a 'blood pumping' new look at weather from a personal perspective!

In this first episode of The Weathervein, recorded this past weekend, Devin and Greg introduce you to the show, and also talk about the increase in activity in the tropical Atlantic, as well as look forward to what could be a busy season ahead, both tracking storms and chasing them!

The video is posted below, and I'll continue to post them here on The Northeast Quadrant, but I inivite you today to please follow The Weathervein at http://theweathervein.blogspot.com, and become a fan on Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/theweathervein.

Enjoy, and thank you for following along!



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