Blizzapolis Satellite Imagery!

This image, courtesy of Weather.com, shows current snow cover left behind in the wake of the big blizzard. Notice how this was a truly an I-95 eastward storm. Few areas west of the major interstate saw significant snowfall accumulations, while areas east saw up to 35 inches.




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Big Blizzard in New York City - December 26, 2010

We've been tracking a potentially historic snowstorm along the east coast for the better part of the week, and alas, after much confusion, speculation and flip-flop, the models verified on this monster of a nor'easter!

This blizzard, the latest in a series of "North American Blizzards of 2010" proved to be the most intense of all, and is showing that 2010 will go out with a bang!

The post Christmas day event lasted less than 24 hours for many and was responsible for dumping greater than 30 inches of snow in some areas, and producing 80 mph wind gusts in others.


Blizzard history map, courtesy of AccuWeather.com


Blizzard observed snowfall map courtesy of AccuWeather.com

The New York City metro area, including the eastern half of New Jersey, bore the brunt of of the storm.

Captured here is my footage during the epic nor'easter yesterday, December 26, 2010.



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WEATHER REWIND! The 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season

The 2010 Hurricane Season tied with 1887 and 1995 having the third highest storm count on record with 19 named storms. But short-term weather patterns dictate where storms actually travel and in many cases this season, that was away from the United States. The jet stream’s position contributed to warm and dry conditions in the eastern U.S. and acted as a barrier that kept many storms over open water. Also, because many storms formed in the extreme eastern Atlantic, they re-curved back out to sea without threatening land. This movie shows GOES-13 infrared imagery from June 1 through November 30, the official extents of the Atlantic Hurricane Season.



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Hurricane Season Rainfall: 2005 vs. 2010

Impact aside, for some time now the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season has been compared to, or at least scaled against, the record-breaking season of 2005 when numerous intense hurricanes made landfall in the United States, central America and Mexico.

With a record 12 hurricanes forming this year, the 2010 season was the most active since 2005. However, the major difference is the location in which tropical cyclones formed and the areas in which their greatest rainfall totals were deposited.

During the 2005 season, the highest tropical cyclone rainfall totals (between 28 and 32 inches) were deposited over the Caribbean Sea, eastern Gulf of Mexico, western Cuba and over the waters in the Atlantic off the southeastern U.S. coast. During the 2010 season the highest tropical cyclone rainfall totals (also between 28 and 32 inches) were deposited over the open waters of the Atlantic north of Puerto Rico.

The image above shows the tropical cyclone rainfall occurring in 2010. This year, south Texas was the only location in the U.S. where tropical cyclone rainfall was greater than in 2005.

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Atlantic Hurricane Season 2010

With the official close of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season still a week away, the season in pretty much all respect, is over. Sure a late-season storm or two could pop up, but the general pattern observed over the past couple weeks looks to continue, therefore furthering unfavorable conditions for development.

So... how did the season add up? The usual skeptics will say it was a bust, but in my opinion 2010 was remarkably awesome for several reasons – we reached the predicted numbers making the 2010 season one of the most active in history, and while the U.S. experienced little impact, NOAA hit the nail on the head with its early season prediction, calling for:

• 14 to 23 named storms
• 8 to 14 hurricanes
• 3 to 7 major hurricanes

Now check out the actuals:

	Average (1966–2009)	2010
Named Storms	8	19
Hurricanes	4	12
Major Hurricanes	1	5

Pretty darn amazing eh? Here's a look at the hurricanes of 2010...

Hurricane Alex



Hurricane Danielle



Hurricane Earl



Hurricane Igor



Hurricane Julia



Hurricane Karl



Hurricane Lisa



Hurricane Otto



Hurricane Paula



Hurricane Richard



Hurricane Shary



Hurricane Tomas


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Research, Trends Indicate Warming Atmosphere

According to a new study recently published in the Journal of Geophysical Research, 'global warming' associated with 'climate change' could cool down northern temperatures during the winter months.

The cooling would be the result of shrinking sea-ice in the eastern Arctic which could cause regional heating of the lower levels of the atmosphere, therefore triggering an overall cooling of the northern continents. Most affected would be Europe and northern Asia in the form of cold winter extremes. You can learn more about the study here.

Meanwhile, scientists at NOAA and several other global climate organizations recently contributed to the paper, "Tropospheric Temperature Trends: History of an Ongoing Controversy," also indicating Earth's lower atmosphere is warming.

Displaying trends using 195 cited papers, model results and atmospheric data sets, the paper documents how, since the development of the very first climate models in the early 1960s, the troposphere has been projected to warm along with the Earth's surface because of the increasing amounts of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. You can learn more about the paper here.

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Fall = PRETTY but BORING...

Not too much to talk about in weather news, folks. We're in that transition time from summer to winter and while fall tends to throw us some good punches here and there, things have been quite boring lately... well, for most.

Savor it, the winter pattern is setting up and with that should come more dynamic weather. Of course, The Northeast Quadrant will be on top of it.

In other news, this is kind of a blessing for me because work has been so incredibly busy lately. I can no longer find enough hours in the day or days in the week.

Oh, and a NEW LOGO COMING SOON! Can't wait to share it with you!

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Quiet Time... Busy Time...

Just a quick note to share my apologies with the avid readers and followers of The Northeast Quadrant for not publishing as often as I would like during the last couple weeks. This will likely continue through the next week or so as I work towards a major deadline at work and prepare for a week of business travel and meetings through November 15.

Remember, you can always stay tuned to The Northeast Quadrant on Facebook at facebook.com/thenortheastquadrant and Twitter at twitter.com/nequadrant.

As always, thanks for for following!

- Devin

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BOMBOGENESIS!

Bombogenesis is defined as rapid or extreme cyclogenesis of a mid-latitude cyclone that drops in surface barometric pressure by 24 or more millibars in a 24-hour period.

A record-breaking weather event is unfolding across the upper Midwest of the United States as I type this. Surface pressures are rapidly falling and the winds are kicking up big time. Why is it happening and how significant is it?

In a case of classic bombogenesis, this storm's surface pressure has been steadily falling and is expected to fall by at least 24 millibars in 24 hours. Bombogensis is not something you often see in this part of the country, but for those in the tropics (hurricanes) and the northeast (nor'easters), it's not that unfamiliar of a term.


Current surface maps as of 10:00 a.m. ET, October 26, 2010

So how could this storm stack up with other notables in the region? In a tale of "GREAT" 'Great Lakes' Cyclones,' the developing storm could go down as the second strongest cyclone (in terms of pressure) to move through the region since record keeping began. Check it out...

1. The Great Ohio Blizzard - January 26, 1978 (958mb/28.05 inches)
UPDATE 10:30 p.m. ET, October 26, 2010: Now the #2 storm.

2. CURRENT STORM - October 26-27, 2010 (959mb/28.35 inches)
UPDATE 10:30 p.m. ET, October 26, 2010: The current storm has become the #1 storm at 955mb/28.20 inches.

3. Armistice Day Storm - November 11, 1940 (967mb/28.55 inches) and Anniversary Storm - November 10, 1988 (967mb/28.55 inches)

4. Cyclone of 1913 - November 7-9, 1913 (968mb/28.60 inches)

5. Edmund Fitzgerald Storm - November 10, 1975 (980mb/28.95 inches)

Speaking of the Edmund Fitzgerald Storm, check out his tribute...



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Winter 2010–2011 Forecast Summary

Over the past few weeks a variety of winter forecasts were released to the public, all of which are hinting at another season of extremes for the United States.

While the extremes of last winter will likely not be felt in the same regions, with this coming winter a new round of crazy weather could be in store for areas far removed from the 2010 blizzard-plagued mid-Atlantic and northeast.

To make it easier for you, here's a regional summary of pretty much every forecast released:

Pacific Northwest: Colder and wetter than average. La Niña often brings lower than average temperatures and increased mountain snow to the Pacific Northwest and western Montana during the winter months, which is good for the replenishment of water resources and winter recreation but can also lead to greater flooding and avalanche concerns.

Southwest: Warmer and drier than average. This will likely exacerbate drought conditions in these areas. All southern states are at risk of having above normal wildfire conditions starting this winter and lasting into the spring.

Northern Plains: Colder and wetter than average. Likely to see increased storminess and flooding.

Southern Plains, Gulf Coast States & Southeast: Warmer and drier than average. This will likely exacerbate drought conditions in these areas. All southern states are at risk of having above normal wildfire conditions starting this winter and lasting into the spring.

Florida: Drier than average, with an equal chance for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures. Above normal wildfire conditions.

Ohio and Tennessee Valleys: Warmer and wetter than average. Likely to see increased storminess and flooding.

Northeast and Mid-Atlantic: Equal chances for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures and precipitation. Winter weather for these regions is often driven not by La Niña but by weather patterns over the northern Atlantic Ocean and Arctic. These are often more short-term, and are generally predictable only a week or so in advance. If enough cold air and moisture are in place, areas north of the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast could see above-average snow.

Central U.S.: Equal chances of above-near-or below normal temperatures and precipitation.

Hawaii: Drier than normal through November, then wetter than normal December through February. Statewide, the current drought is expected to continue through the winter, with several locations remaining on track to become the driest year on record. Drought recovery is more likely on the smaller islands of Kauai and Molokai, and over the windward slopes of the Big Island and Maui.

Alaska: Odds favor colder than average temperatures with equal chances of above or below normal precipitation. The interior and southern portions of the state are currently drier than normal. A dry winter may set Alaska up for a greater chance of above normal wildfire conditions in the spring.

Courtesy NWS

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The Weathervein - Episode 17

Here we are in late October and the northwest Caribbean remains a breeding ground as we now have Tropical Storm Richard. Richard, which should become a hurricane over the next day or so, is spinning its way slowly westward towards the Yucatan Peninsula. That's right, yet another Yucatan threat! But what about the United States? Well folks, this might be the one to watch! Find out in this episode of The Weathervein where Richard is heading, how strong he could get, who might be impacted in the short- and long-range and what it could mean for the Gulf coast! We're hurricane ready on The Weathervein... are you?



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Global Drought on the Horizon?

According to a new study by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), the United States and many other heavily populated countries could face a growing threat of severe and prolonged drought in coming decades, as a result of warming temperatures associated with climate change (notice how I didn't say global warming!). These warming temperatures will likely create increasingly dry conditions across much of the globe in the next 30 years, possibly reaching a scale in some regions by the end of the century that has rarely, if ever, been observed in modern times.

The study, which is highlighted in an article in "Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change," indicates that most at risk would be the Western Hemisphere, along with large parts of Eurasia, Africa, and Australia, while higher-latitude regions from Alaska to Scandinavia are likely to experience opposite conditions.

An expert working on the study noted that if the projections come even close to being realized, the consequences for society worldwide will be enormous as some of the worst impact we face will involve a decrease in water as a natural resource.

Learn more about the study here.

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Super Typhoon Megi: An Interview in the Aftermath

On Sunday night Super Typhoon Megi and it's 180+ mph winds barreled into northern Luzon in the Philippines as the strongest tropical cyclone of the 2010 season. With a minimum pressure of 885 millibars at landfall, Megi, known locally as 'Juan,' could perhaps go down as the strongest landfalling tropical cyclone ever!

Last night via Skype I caught up with Claiv Marco from Manila and he provided insight into the state of calamity in northern Luzon, the effects Megi had on his region south of the disaster zone, and an update where Megi is now and where it is headed, as well as some historical perspective on typhoons striking the Philippines.

Claiv is a big fan of The Northeast Quadrant and I thank him greatly for this interview. Check it out here...

Claiv Marco:
good evening devin

Devin Matthew Toporek:
hi!

Claiv Marco:
oh, sorry for waiting

Devin Matthew Toporek:
no problem

Devin Matthew Toporek:
you have video?

Claiv Marco:
my web cam unavailable

Devin Matthew Toporek:
oh that is too bad. was hoping to record something so i could repost it and share with those on the northeast quadrant page.

Devin Matthew Toporek:
so how are things there?

Claiv Marco:
its too bad

Claiv Marco:
mostly in the Northern part

Devin Matthew Toporek:
what are you hearing?

Claiv Marco:
power poles and lines were destroyed

Devin Matthew Toporek:
i'm sure!

Claiv Marco:
most of the towns and provinces in northern Luzon has no power

Claiv Marco:
even telecommunication networks

Devin Matthew Toporek:
i would imagine the storm surge was incredible! do you know how high it was?

Claiv Marco:
what i've heard is about 18-20 feet

Claiv Marco:
along the east coast

Devin Matthew Toporek:
wow!

Devin Matthew Toporek:
i would have expected even more!

Devin Matthew Toporek:
during Hurricane Katrina there was almost a 30 feet surge

Devin Matthew Toporek:
and 20+ with Ike

Claiv Marco:
maybe its because the area there is too terrain

Devin Matthew Toporek:
probably because there is also less influence from a continental shelf like we have here in the United States

Devin Matthew Toporek:
is the area where Megi made landfall heavily populated?

Claiv Marco:
in some part mostly in the Ilagan City Isabela, where its eye passed, the entire province of Isabela is now under state of calamity, and hundreds of houses destroyed

Devin Matthew Toporek:
unbelievable! i can only imagine!

Devin Matthew Toporek:
i find it interesting but extremely fortunate that i have only heard of a few deaths from this storm, so far. it just amazes me because in a storm like that we would lose hundreds, if not thousands... it's happened before here and i am sure it would again. you are very lucky.

Claiv Marco:
yes and we are very thankful to God

Devin Matthew Toporek:
so tell me... what was the feeling like there when Megi was approaching. what were the weather forecasters and government telling the residents of northern Luzon province?

Claiv Marco:
all of the evacuees stayed in gymnasiums and schools

Claiv Marco:
before the landfall

Devin Matthew Toporek:
good!

Claiv Marco:
but unfortunately

Claiv Marco:
the rice fields, corn fields and other sources of their livelihood were totally destroyed

Claiv Marco:
they are crying

Devin Matthew Toporek:
that is sad, i cannot imagine what it would be like to realize such a loss! as i said, they're very lucky to have their life though.

Devin Matthew Toporek:
did you see or hear of many northern residents evacuating to your area down south?

Claiv Marco:
i didn't heard something, i think they all just stayed in government properties in their provinces maybe because they'll be having hard time to go south because you need to cross mountains before going south and they don't need to leave their places

Devin Matthew Toporek:
oh, i see.

Devin Matthew Toporek:
so tell me, living in the Philippines... you have seen quite a few Typhoons, right? which ones do you recall the most and why?

Claiv Marco:
oh great question

Claiv Marco:
i'm gonna share you a lot

Devin Matthew Toporek:
can't wait!

Devin Matthew Toporek:
go for it!

Claiv Marco:
Ok, the most intense and powerful typhoon that I experience in Manila is Typhoon Xangsane or Milenyo here in the Philippines. Because of Xangsane, I became interested in typhoon forecasting.

Devin Matthew Toporek:
how old were you when Xangsane hit, and how strong was it?

Claiv Marco:
i think i'm 17

Claiv Marco:
it's too strong for us living in the city

Devin Matthew Toporek:
what was the devastation like?

Claiv Marco:
lots of billboards collapse and fell down in major roads

Claiv Marco:
trees fell over roofs

Devin Matthew Toporek:
sounds scary! but fun at the same time, obviously that is the weather enthusiast and storm chaser in me speaking!

Devin Matthew Toporek:
i bet if Megi made landfall near Manila the effects would be far worse than what they were!

Claiv Marco:
yes i understand, i feel the same way too

Claiv Marco:
Oh wow maybe

Claiv Marco:
i think there will be lots of damages

Devin Matthew Toporek:
and what about Milenyo? how strong was that storm and how old were you?

Claiv Marco:
Xangsane is Milenyo

Claiv Marco:
we change typhoon name when in enters the territory

Devin Matthew Toporek:
oh, how interesting! is that why Megi you began calling it Juan?

Devin Matthew Toporek:
why do they change the typhoon names when they enter the Philippines territories?

Claiv Marco:
because our authorities wanted to have clear number of storms that enters the country and it is alphabetical in order

Devin Matthew Toporek:
again, how interesting!

Claiv Marco:
right now we are experiencing strong winds and heavy rain here in southern Luzon including Manila

Claiv Marco:
because of the outer rainbands

Devin Matthew Toporek:
right, i saw that the typhoon's outflow was still impressive!

Devin Matthew Toporek:
it was amazing though last night to see just how quickly the storm deteriorated once it made landfall. that high terrain just ripped it apart...

Devin Matthew Toporek:
though having it still emerge over the south china sea as a strog category 2 (hurricane) is yet again impressive.

Claiv Marco:
yes and it still intensifying

Devin Matthew Toporek:
right... will continue to do so until its second landfall later this week in southeast china.

Devin Matthew Toporek:
should not be a strong as it was though, right?

Claiv Marco:
yes, and i think its forecast is to move near hong kong

Devin Matthew Toporek:
i saw that!

Devin Matthew Toporek:
hong kong looks like it will be in "the northeast quadrant" no less!

Devin Matthew Toporek:
my work has a conference in hong kong later this week! crazy!

Claiv Marco:
I see, wow, hope to be like what you are doing

Claiv Marco:
Ok i'll share more experiences in typhoons

Devin Matthew Toporek:
yes, please!

Claiv Marco:
as i've said the most powerful that i experienced was milenyo, now i'm gonna tell you the most devastating, it is typhoon Ondoy or Ketsana in international name

Claiv Marco:
it hit Manila as a Tropical Storm

Devin Matthew Toporek:
oh yeah? what was so bad, the rain?

Claiv Marco:
yes too bad,the entire Metro Manila almost submerged

Claiv Marco:
it brought 348.4 mm of rain

Devin Matthew Toporek:
wow!

Devin Matthew Toporek:
we had a bad tropical storm here about ten years ago. it's name was Allison.

Devin Matthew Toporek:
similar devastation from flooding rains...

Devin Matthew Toporek:
http://northeastquadrant.blogspot.com/2010/06/tropical-storm-allison-lesson-learned.html

Devin Matthew Toporek:
so are you going to study weather when you go to college?

Claiv Marco:
wow 40 in

Devin Matthew Toporek:
yeah, Allison was horrible!

Claiv Marco:
i just study by myself over the web, and meteorology is not actually my course

Devin Matthew Toporek:
you are great at it! i see your posts and maps on your facebook wall. keep up the good work!

Claiv Marco:
thanks!! i just wanted to tell and warn my friends

Devin Matthew Toporek:
let's make a deal! if the opportunity presents itself, and let's hope it does soon, you can come to the U.S. and chase a hurricane with me and i come there and chase a [super]typhoon with you!

Claiv Marco:
wow, if that's it, let's see

Devin Matthew Toporek:
easier said than done right??? ;-)

Claiv Marco:
yes, it's not that easy

Claiv Marco:
mostly in my case

Devin Matthew Toporek:
well let's hope you and your family and friends and all those in the Philippines and south China as well - all stay safe for the rest of the season!

Claiv Marco:
Yours likewise! God Bless you!

Devin Matthew Toporek:
stay in touch... and good luck in school!

Claiv Marco:
Thank you, by the way i already graduated

Devin Matthew Toporek:
do you mind if i post this conversation on the northeast quadrant and blog? i am sure people would be so interested to hear about it!

Devin Matthew Toporek:
oh, i'm sorry. i thought you were still in school... well good for you then!

Claiv Marco:
It's Ok, Thanks for a great conversation

Devin Matthew Toporek:
you too! have a good day...

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NASA's Concludes GRIP Mission

Comprehensive hurricane research project proves successful!

Last week NASA concluded its GRIP (Genesis and Rapid Intensification Process) hurricane research mission aimed at gaining a better understanding of tropical cyclone behavior—how they form, evolve and strengthen, and how they weaken and die. GRIP, which launched in mid-July, promises to revolutionize tropical weather forecasts in years to come.

How it worked
The GRIP mission analyzed storms with manned and unmanned aircraft as well as satellite imagery. The aircraft, ready for deployment at a moments notice, were based along the U.S. Gulf coast and northern Caribbean islands and were equipped with 15 weather instruments, ranging from an advanced microwave sounder to dropsondes—gadgets that record atmospheric and surface measurements as they fall through the atmosphere to the ocean surface.

The perfect specimens
While tropical cyclone impact for the season remains quite low for U.S. coastal communities, two hurricanes, Earl and Karl were significant for GRIP's research. Earl, a category 4 storm that spun through the central and western Atlantic, was analyzed as it rapidly intensified and degraded off the southeast coast before heading northward towards the Canadian maritime region. During this time GRIP sent several aircraft into the storm, penetrating its eye and sending back critical storm data that offered insight into wind speed and direction as well as wind shear's affect on hurricanes moving swiftly through northern latitudes. Similarly, Karl, which was a strengthening category 3 at landfall, was penetrated by additional aircraft as it plowed into the Mexican coast. These aircraft captured valuable data such as cloud temperature, air pressure, humidity, precipitation, convection and sea surface temperatures. GRIP continued it's research after Karl moved inland and deteriorated, also providing perspective on how land friction affects hurricane degradation.

The seasonal scorecard
The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season concludes November 31 and remains quite active, with 18 storms, of which 16 have been named. 8 of those named storms became hurricanes, of which 5 were major.

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The Weathervein - Episode 16

The Weathervein is back and we're recapping the tropics and providing the latest information on soon-to-be Hurricane Paula in the northwest Caribbean, as well as a developing nor'easter for the northeast U.S. later this week! Check it out here in Episode 16 of The Weathervein!



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The Northeast Quadrant Promo Video

Weather Enthusiast, Blogger, Social Networker and Storm Chaser

In this video Devin Matthew Toporek promotes The Northeast Quadrant online community for weather enthusiasts, professionals and all those interested in meteorology and more. The Northeast Quadrant also can be found on:

Facebook: http://facebook.com/northeastquadrant
Twitter: http://twitter.com/nequadrant
YouTube: http://youtube.com/nequadrant



Enjoy, and thanks for following!

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17, 15, 8, 5

You might be wondering what the numbers in the title of this post refer to. Well wonder no more because I'm going to tell you these numbers reference the scorecard for the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season – a season that will go down in the record books as one of the most active in history!

Wait, what!? How can it be one of the most active?

You mean you haven't heard that more than half the storms, major hurricanes included, have gone out to sea as 'fish storms?' That's right... it's been a very active hurricane season but with little U.S. impact, who knew?!

With the formation of Hurricane Otto today, the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season now features a total of 17 storms, 15 of which have been named and of those, 8 became hurricanes. Of those hurricanes, 5 were majors (category 3, i.e. 115 mph or higher). A typical hurricane season produces about 10 storms, of which 6 become hurricanes.

Before the start of hurricane season experts warned of the threat of not only an active season but a very high impact one, however, as mentioned and observed, U.S. impact has been quite minimal outside of a few tropical storms, a depression and glancing blow from Hurricane Earl.

While we are hitting the numbers big time, somewhat unexpected atmospheric conditions have steered a great number of storms away from U.S. coastlines. Who's complaining right? Well, aside from the storm chasers and weather enthusiasts!

Hurricane tracks are greatly influenced by the aforementioned atmospheric conditions. The upper level currents steer hurricanes in a variety of ways and storm tracks are highly dependent on where the storms form and the steering currents at that particular time. According to National Hurricane Center (NHC) Director, Bill Read, with the weather pattern that was in place and the fact that this season's storms formed so far out to the east, it's not surprising that they turned off to the north. As soon as you find a weakness in the big high (known as the Bermuda High) you'll get that effect. This follows the same methodology that Greg Nordstrom and I refer to often in The Weathervein. When storms form east of 35W longitude they will 9 out of 10 times curve out to sea.

Time will tell what the remainder of hurricane season will bring but we only have 6 names left on the list before they are used up. Those names are Paula, Richard, Shary, Tomas, Virginie and Walter. Thereafter we would be required to begin using the Greek alphabet as we did only one time before – in 2005. However, time is running out.

Regardless, always be hurricane ready!

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Measuring up the Summer of 2010!

From record-breaking heatwaves to drought and fires, on a global scale the summer of 2010 will undoubtedly go down in the books as one of the most extreme for the northern hemisphere. But how extreme and how hot... and how does it compare to years prior?

According to recently released information by NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), globally, June through August was the fourth-warmest summer period in GISS's 131-year-temperature record. The same months during 2009, in contrast, were the second warmest on record. The cooler 2010 summer temperatures (and by cooler I mean SLIGHTLY and UNNOTICEABLE by many) were primarily the result of the current La Niña pattern replacing El Niño which has controlled our weather for the better part of the last year or so.

Looking at this information you probably cannot help but wonder if this trend points towards a warming planet, especially when global seasonal temperatures for the spring of 2010 also were the warmest on record. It is the public's instinct to look at local temperature anomalies and draw that conclusion, but GISS says these trends have limited relevance on a global scale.

In reviewing some interesting data, I personally made note that 2010 is shaping up very similar to 2005 which was THE warmest year on record. We are looking at similar atmospheric patterns, and that includes the current influences on the Atlantic hurricane season. GISS believes 2010 will end up measuring sufficiently close to 2005 and the last few months of the year will be very telling as that is the period that brought 2005 from being one of the warmest to THE warmest.

Here are some links to previous posts I've written on the extremes of summer 2010!

Heat Wave to Continue Choking mid-Atlantic, Northeast U.S. (July 6, 2010)

NEQ Friday Review, V.10 (July 9, 2010)

Extreme Heat Could Become Summer's Norm (July 22, 2010)

Russia Heat Wave is OUT OF CONTROL! (August 10, 2010)

Global Extremities of Summer 2010 (August 17, 2010)

2010 U.S. Summer Review (September 15, 2010)

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2010 Atlantic Tropical Update: What Lies Ahead

As mentioned the other day we are well into an above-average Atlantic hurricane season, now recording 14 named storms from Alex to Nicole, and two unnamed tropical depressions. That leaves us with just seven more names available until we would need to cut into the Greek alphabet – which has only been done once in history – in 2005. Given statistical guidance, it could happen again.

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), 27.3 percent of all tropical storms and 26.7 percent of all hurricanes since 1851 have formed between today, October 1 and December 31, (despite the seasons official close on November 30), and in fact, October rivals August when it comes to the number of tropical storms that form in waters that are still warm, such as the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea.

In 2005, a season that featured similar favorable tropical development conditions as the 2010 season, nine storms were recorded in October alone, and an additional four storm developed through the turn of the new year (2005– 2006). Even though there are no indications a situation like that would evolve during the next few months, it would not take much – just a gradual storm here and there – to easily advance us through the remainder of the alphabet. But that said, what happened to impact? This season was dubbed the season of impact, not the season of numbers?

It only takes one, so what imminently lies ahead? The NHC is now tracking a new invest area called 97L which has a 40 percent chance of development over the next couple days. Should it develop it would become Tropical Depression #16 and/or Tropical Storm and/or Hurricane Otto. This is a system that in the near-term the Leeward islands of the Caribbean will want to watch.

Regarding the Gulf of Mexico, this area is blocked for development, at least for now. The Caribbean continues to produce a lot of disorganized convection left behind from Matthew and Nicole, but nothing appears to be boiling into a tropical cyclone (yet).

Now in related news I'd like to provide you a link to NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracking Tool which allows users to search by U.S. zip code, state or county, storm name or year, or latitude and longitude points to plot some of the greatest storm tracks from year's past. The site includes tropical cyclone data and information on coastal county hurricane strikes through 2009. It also features a searchable database of population changes versus hurricane strikes for U.S. coastal counties from 1900 to 2000 and includes detailed reports on the life history and effects of U.S. tropical cyclones since 1958. Check it out here.

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Caribbean is Stressed Out... Again!

Extreme conditions such as warm sea-surface temperatures are fueling an active hurricane season, but they are taking their toll on the Atlantic basin's tropical coral reefs.

The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season has thus far already been the most active since the epic 2005 season when several hurricanes plowed through the Caribbean and that year, like this year, thermal stress is taking its toll on the region's coral.

According to a statement released last week by NOAA, a strong potential for bleaching now exists in the Caribbean and it could be as severe as in 2005 when over 80 percent of corals bleached and over 40 percent died. Prolonged coral bleaching, can lead to coral death and the subsequent loss of coral reef habitats for a range of marine life.

This is more than likely attributed to extremely warm and unprecedented sea surface temperatures. High temperatures cause corals to force out the symbiotic algae that provide them with food. This makes the corals appear white or 'bleached' and can increase outbreaks of infectious disease. The decline and loss of coral reefs has significant social, cultural, economic and ecological impacts.

It is still too early to tell the long-term effect and severity of this year's coral bleaching but the 2005 bleaching event was the result of the largest, most intense thermal stress ever recorded in the Caribbean during the 25-year NOAA satellite record.

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Four Cat 4's...

I created a graphic this morning for The Northeast Quadrant's Facebook page WEATHER PHOTO OF THE DAY album which depicts satellite images of the four category 4's of 2010 (so far), featuring Hurricanes Danielle, Earl, Igor and Julia.

These four storms were classic Cape Verde hurricanes and while Danielle and Julia remained out to sea, Earl and Igor directly and indirectly impacted land mass. Both Igor and Julia attained category 4 strength simultaneously – an occurrence that has not happened since September 16, 1926.

I thought this was a pretty cool way of showing that no two storms are alike despite their similar characteristics!



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The Atlantic Basin Goes Silent... But Not For Long

After a slow start to a hurricane season that was hyped to be anything but slow, today marks the first full day since the development of Tropical Depression #6 on August 21 (which would later become Hurricane Danielle) that we've gone without a named storm in the Atlantic basin. Although we almost did it between September 5–6 when Hurricane Earl dissipated in the north Atlantic, we were surprised when Tropical Depression #10 (which would later become Tropical Storm Hermine) quickly spun up in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico before making landfall in extreme northeastern Mexico. This marks a total of 36 days having a named storm, the longest such period since the 2002 Atlantic hurricane season, which had remained completely active for 45 days from August 29 through October 12.

We are well into an above-average Atlantic hurricane season with 13 named storms and two unnamed tropical depressions, and there are only eight more names available for use before we'd need to break into Greek alphabet, which has only been done once in history – during the epic 2005 Atlantic hurricane season. With that said, today's break in activity leaves us on edge after yesterday's degeneration of both Lisa and Matthew, wondering where Nicole is... and will Otto follow?

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) there is an increasingly likely chance we'll see our next named storm this week as an area of convection continues to flare up in the northwest Caribbean Sea which in the short-term seems to have its eyes on the southeastern Gulf coast. Meanwhile, a very small area of convection flared overnight in the central Atlantic, but development of this system is not likely in the near-term.

There is not yet an official invest on the system in the Caribbean but by day's end I would expect to see 96L pop up! At that time the computer models should have a better handle on what the system might do – where it might go, how fast it might develop and how strong it could become. To that extent I encourage all interests in the northwest Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico to monitor possible development in this region as the break in tropical activity seems to be short-lived!

[UPDATE #1: As of 3:30 p.m. ET 09-27-10, we officially have 96L invest.]
[UPDATE #2: As of 11:00 a.m. ET 09-28-10, we officially have Tropical Depression #16.]

I'll leave you with 2010 Atlantic hurricane season scorecard, courtesy of The Weather Channel:

	Average (1966–2009)	2010
Named Storms	8	19
Hurricanes	4	7
Major Hurricanes	1	5

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Another GREAT Hurricane Igor Chase Recap

Now that you've all read my Hurricane Igor chase recap, hear it through Greg Nordstrom as he reviews his experience in Bermuda last week on his blog, EYE OF THE STORM! Greg posted his blog yesterday along with some pretty amazing videos and I definitely encourage you to check them out at hurricanechaser.net!



Great job, Greg! Looking forward to chasing with you again in the very near future!

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The Weathervein - Episode 15

This past week just as Igor raced off into the north Atlantic and Julia dissipated in it's wake, Tropical Storm Lisa spun up near the Cape Verde Islands and this evening became the seventh hurricane of the season! Meanwhile another tropical storm, Matthew, slammed into the Nicaraguan coast this afternoon and will bring with it several days of heavy rain throughout the central American region. But what's next? Is the U.S. on the radar for potential impact from the next storm? Find out in this episode of The Weathervein as Devin and Greg invite you to check out recaps of their Hurricane Igor chase in Bermuda as well as provide insight on the state of the tropics!



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On The Barometer Bob Show

Greg and Devin provide an in-depth recap of their experience riding out and chasing Hurricane Igor in Bermuda!

Earlier this evening Greg Nordstrom and I were featured on The Barometer Bob Show as we recapped our Hurricane Igor chase in Bermuda! Scroll to minute 20:10 to hear the interview...



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Hurricane Igor: Storm Chase Recap!

September 16–19, 2010 – Bermuda

Well, after nearly a week of chasing the strongest hurricane thus far in the 2010 Atlantic season, I am finally back home in New York! Despite the storm’s weakened state upon its approach to Bermuda, chasing Hurricane Igor on that tiny north-Atlantic island was undoubtedly one of my greatest moments as a weather enthusiast!

The chase began on Thursday, September 16, as Greg Nordstrom and I were to depart from New York’s JFK airport but were delayed until Friday morning, September 17 due to severe weather in the area. We spent the night trying to sleep on the cold terminal floor, which sounds absolutely awful, but we did manage to have a bit of fun. We made friends with a girl by the name of Vanessa and the three of us huddled together, enjoyed some cocktails at the airport bar and tried to make the most of the situation.



On Friday morning the flight departed and arrived as smooth as could be. Upon arrival in Bermuda a local journalist by the name of Patricia contacted us and she was doing a story on Hurricane Igor and the storm chasers that were invading her island nation. We spent a few days before Igor’s landfall traversing the island with Patricia and we are so grateful for that opportunity, for without her guidance we would never have seen the things we did! From viewing roaring, crashing waves on Bermuda’s south shore to witnessing locals boarding up their homes in the lovely neighborhoods that line Bermuda’s coast – it was truly a unique experience.







On Friday afternoon Hurricane Igor began to somewhat deteriorate in organization as it officially made that northward turn and began its approach towards Bermuda. However, well in advance of what was a category 2 hurricane at the time (on its way to a category 1 from a strong category 4), Igor was responsible for a significant coastal battering. Surge was already rolling in along Bermuda’s south shore, especially into tributaries and inlets opening up to the fierce Atlantic. We were informed that areas we were looking at that appeared as a lake or river, were actually land – and this was at least 30 hours prior to Igor’s near direct hit.





Since Hurricane Igor was so massive in size, having been the third largest Atlantic hurricane ever recorded, conditions started going downhill on Saturday evening. By the time we went to sleep we were easily experiencing tropical depression conditions and by the middle of the night a weak tropical storm was in full effect.



Sunday was the day! By sunrise the winds were howling and the rain was pouring. The surf was kicking up more than it had in day’s prior and Bermuda was well entrenched in strong tropical storm conditions. Throughout the day the winds steadily increased and as evening dawned upon us we were officially experiencing Hurricane Igor, and would for the several hours to come.





During the height of the storm we took some risks but safety was on the top of our minds. While it might appear that we were too close for comfort, we made sound decisions and never felt that our life was in danger.





Although category 1 Hurricane Igor never made a direct hit to Bermuda, for the duration of the storm we were in the northeast quadrant – the strongest part of the storm, so we did feel the brunt of the impact. Many people said (locals and storm chasers alike) that Igor was the “best” and/or “strongest” category 1 hurricane they had ever experienced. I have not been in many but from what I witnessed in chasing this massive storm, I concur!



Throughout the storm as conditions and connectivity allowed, I kept everyone up to date on The Northeast Quadrant Facebook page. I know they really enjoyed seeing all the footage first-hand and I am so grateful to have been able to share the storm with them. I also submitted some footage to The Weather Channel which was aired on television and is still available online. I also conducted an interview with The Weather Channel via Skype, which aired live on Sunday morning just before the onset of Igor’s hurricane force winds.



Below you will find a movie I put together which combines the best footage from over 100 clips I filmed before and during the storm, as well as a slideshow of photos. Despite the dramatic feel these medium convey, as you can imagine it in no way showcases actually being in the storm!





Thank you so much for allowing me to share this experience with all of you – it is, after all, not only chasing Igor, but also me chasing my dream!

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