NEQ Spotlight: Hurricane Alex

NASA released this week a satellite imagery movie showing the life cycle of Hurricane Alex, the first named storm of the 2010 hurricane season, and the only storm to form during the month of June. The movie was put together by a compilation of GOES-13 captures over the course of two weeks, and is a definitive example of one of the tropical-storm-in-ten which bloom into a hurricane, therefore honoring Hurricane Alex as today’s NEQ Spotlight!

After struggling across hurricane alley as Invest 93L during the last two weeks of June, Tropical Depression # 1, which formed on June 25, managed to strengthen into Tropical Storm Alex on June 26 before making landfall along the coast of Belize. Being downgraded back to a tropical depression before reaching the calm of the Gulf of Mexico, Alex quickly spun back up into a tropical storm and further strengthened into a hurricane on June 29 before making a final landfall in northeast Mexico on July 1.

Hurricane Alex's heavy rainfall flooded towns, created mudslides, caused waterways to overflow and broke records. Sadly, it also proved fatal to at least 30 people.

Here's the amazing GOES-13 video – Enjoy!



You can also downland the movie here.

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Forget the Numbers, Brace for Impact

Nearly a month and a half into what is expected to be an epic hurricane season, and all we have seen so far is one named storm, Hurricane Alex, and a poorly organized tropical depression. There is barely a thunderstorm to be had in the Atlantic basin this week and a vast layer on dry Saharan dust has limited the hope for activity in the very near term. Despite the slow start and bleak outlook for a storm right now, expectations remain for an active hurricane season.

On average in July, we typically do not see all that many storms. What I think is making this hurricane season seem to fall short of expectations is the need for comparison to 2005, where the month of July was record-breaking – in numbers of storms and storm intensity.

One thing we must note this season is not only the numbers and intensity, which may or may not meet expectations, but impact! The pattern that is set up now very much favors tropical cyclone activity to reach U.S. coastlines from the Gulf to the northeast. In fact, the probability of a storm getting into the Gulf is about 44 percent this year, and normally it's about 30 percent. Additionally, yet another month of record warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Basin was recorded in June – a trend that is likely to continue as we press on towards the peak part of hurricane season, which runs from mid-August through mid-October. Combine these factors with an expected decrease in Saharan dust and low wind shears, trouble could be brewing on the horizon.

Regarding impact as the bigger threat as opposed to high numbers of storms expected this season, check out this perspective from past seasons where the numbers of storms were quite low, but impact was quite high: In 1965, there were only seven named storms, one of which was Betsy, the first billion-dollar hurricane. Another example is Hurricane Andrew in 1992. There were only seven named storms that year as well, but Andrew was the costliest in history until Katrina came along in 2005.

Again, there are no imminent threat areas to discuss in the tropical Atlantic today, and none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. Beyond that, things could get more interesting! Remember, according to NOAA there is still a 70 percent chance of 14 to 23 named storms to develop this season, of which 8 to 14 could be hurricanes, and 3 to 7 becoming majors. With a month and a half behind us and only one named storm, that prediction could allow for a busy few months ahead where we’ll be tracking several storms at the same time!

For now, please stay tuned and be hurricane ready – I think August and September (maybe October too) will have some tricks up its sleeves!

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NASA's GRIP Mission to Study Hurricane Behavior

NASA is hopping on the hurricane bandwagon and will soon kick off a new mission aimed at getting a better grip on how tropical storms form and develop into [major] hurricanes. The mission is called GRIP and stands for Genesis and Rapid Intensification Process, and it will fly aircraft and unmanned air vehicles (for up to 20 hours straight) into the storms this summer. Grip is expected to provide a sustained, continuous look at hurricane behavior at critical times during their formation and evolution, i.e. how they strengthen, weaken and die.

The hurricane research fleet for GRIP is made up of one Global Hawk UAV, a McDonnell Douglas DC-8 and a Martin WB-57F Canberra. The six-week program, which begins on August 15, is NASA's first major US-based hurricane field campaign since 2001.

The aircraft will carry a total of 15 instruments, ranging from an advanced microwave sounder to dropsondes that take measurements as they fall through the atmosphere to the ocean surface. In order to determine how a tropical cyclone will behave, the instruments will analyze many factors, including cloud droplet and aerosol concentrations, air temperature, wind speed and direction in storms and on the ocean's surface, air pressure, humidity, lightning, aerosols, and water vapor. The data also will validate the observations from space.

The CloudSat spacecraft will provide cloud profiles of storms, which include altitude, temperatures and rainfall intensity.

Several instruments on board NASA's Aqua satellite will provide infrared, visible and microwave data that reveal such factors as temperature, air pressure, precipitation, cloud ice content, convection and sea surface temperatures.

For more information about GRIP, visit: http://www.nasa.gov/grip.

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Study Questions Hurricane Intensity Forecasts

According to recently published research by the Mathematics Research Centre (CRM) and Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, there is a definite mathematical relation between the number of hurricanes produced in certain parts of the world and the amount of energy they release. The research is now published in the Nature Physics online journal and suggests that the evolution of hurricane intensity will be very difficult to predict and that such forecasts could never be feasible.

The research was concluded from a comprehensive set of data in which the two arms analyzed tropical cyclones that have occurred across the globe between 1945 and 2007. The first conclusion states that a hurricane's dynamics can be the result of a critical process, therefore making it impossible to predict its intensity. The second conclusion is related to the effects of global warming on the behavior of tropical cyclones, stating that the recent increase in activity cannot be explained 'solely' on the basis of climate change.

The final discovery supports the fact that hurricanes follow a precise mathematical formula known as a power-law. The number of hurricanes is inversely proportional to the energy released, except for the highest values of energy, where the relation is suddenly interrupted. In other words, the cut-off point where the power-law does not represent the behavior of hurricanes is influenced by factors such as average sea surface temperature and the El Niño phenomenon.

Pretty interesting stuff! Learn more about the study here.

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NEQ Friday Review, V.10

You didn't think this week's NEQ Friday Review would be about anything other than this past week's heatwave... did you?!

As pretty much the entire world is aware by now, a massive heatwave engulfed the northeast and mid-Atlantic United States this past week. The heatwave generally kicked off on Sunday, July 4 and it was not until yesterday, Thursday, July 8 that it began winding down. In its wake the heatwave shattered and tied an enormous amount of daily temperature records, including 33 on Monday, 131 on Tuesday and as many as 151 on Wednesday.

Sure heatwaves have plagued the region in years past, and even in 2010 alone some U.S. cities have already experienced similar waves, but this one was pretty special, and dare I say, could actually be repeated again before the summer is over. Why so special? Just check out these readings...

	Sun. 7/4	Mon. 7/5	Tues. 7/6	Wed. 7/7	Thurs. 7/8
New York (Central Park)	96°	99°	103°	100°	88°
Newark (EWR Airport)	101°	102°	103°	101°	86°
Philadelphia (PHL Airport)	96°	98°	102°	103°	89°
Baltimore (BWI Airport)	98°	100°	105°	101°	93°
Washington, DC (DCA Airport)	94°	99°	102°	102°	93°

What a week it was! A cool down is in store this weekend but temperatures are still expected to be hot by many standards. Expect lots of upper 80s and lower 90s... but hey, I guess it'll feel better than it did this past week. And remember, with such a hot, dry air mass in place, the next big concern for the remainder of the summer could be drought.

2010 is definitely shaping up to be record-breaking and memorable by many weather extremes!

Enjoy your weekend, and stay cool!

The Inexact Science of Tropical Forecasting

A recently published article in the Brownsville (Texas) Herald yielded evidence to the inexact science of tropical weather forecasting. The article caught my attention because tropical forecasts are often times frustrating for many as they are probably one of the most erratic predictions meteorologists deal with, and because the story comes from a news outlet in a region that recently dealt with the aberrant forecasts of Hurricane Alex.

Despite the fact that tropical forecasting has not changed much in the last 20 years, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is improving its ability to forecast storm intensity and tracks through its Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP). The Project aims to reduce the average errors of hurricane track and intensity forecasts by 20 percent within five years and 50 percent in 10 years with a forecast period out to seven days. The NHC will do so through the development of advanced hurricane models, data assimilation systems and through the optimal use of real observations.

Using regional data in the Brownsville area, the NHC is now studying six tropical cyclones — Tropical Storm Beryl in 2000, Tropical Storm Bertha in 2002, Hurricane Erika in 2003, Hurricane Emily in 2005, Hurricane Dolly in 2008 and last week’s Hurricane Alex.

Speaking of difficult forecasting, what better time than now to call attention to one of my most valued tropical forecasting and analysis resources – a blog called Eye of the Storm, written by meteorologist and storm chaser, Greg Nordstrom. I've been learning quite a bit from Greg and he said it best himself in his post, Tropics = TOUGH!, regarding system 96L (now Tropical Depression #2):

"This was one complex situation, and makes forecasting such a challenge... 96L has completely split, as the low-level center heads toward central Texas, and the mid-level center heads toward northern Mexico! This is a prime example why forecasting the tropics is extremely difficult!"

I encourage you all to follow Greg's blog at http://ldctstormchaser.blogspot.com, and be sure to keep close tabs on both The Northeast Quadrant and Eye of the Storm as I join Greg this hurricane season for the ultimate hurricane chase! You won't want to miss the footage!

And if you have not done so already, check out AccuWeather's exclusive video, Social Media's Influence on Storm Chasing, featuring both Greg and me as AccuWeather looks in-depth at how the ease of today's communication impacts your every day weather and news broadcasts.

Enjoy!

Big Apple Baking, Sizzling, Frying...

The mid-Atlantic and northeast United States is well into the fourth day of a historic heatwave and yesterday, Tuesday, July 6, high temperatures of up to 103 degrees in the New York City area broke or tied ALL records set back in 1999 at ALL National Weather Service (NWS) climate reporting sites: JFK (JFK Airport - Queens), LGA (La Guardia Airport - Queens), EWR (Newark Airport - Newark, New Jersey), Central Park (Manhattan), Islip (Long Island) and Bridgeport (Connecticut).

For many in the New York metro region, the day was marked as the hottest since August 9, 2001. Ironically, the day was also the anniversary of the hottest temperature ever recorded, which was 106 back in 1936.

Last night I took to the streets and snapped these photos of the hot, summer sun baking, sizzling and frying the Big Apple; and recorded the video blog post below, which further describes the massive heatwave and its far-reaching effects.

Heat Wave to Continue Choking mid-Atlantic, Northeast U.S.

The mid-Atlantic and northeast United States is well into the third day of a historic heatwave that is now rivaling and could end up breaking records set in the two memorable heat waves during the summer of 2006. That summer in New York City alone, 46 people died when the furnace went on full blast in late July and early August.

So far during July 2010 in the Big Apple, the first six days have averaged six degrees hotter than the same period last year. The conditions have prompted the National Weather Service to issue heat advisories and excessive heat warnings, as well as air quality alerts for not only the megalopolis, but cities from the Ohio Valley to North Carolina, and northward to southern New England and upstate New York. And guess what? The heat is expected to last all week, with highs reaching the mid-90s to 100+ through Friday. For some cities that would mark one full week with 90+ degree heat.

So what is causing the extreme heat wave? A heat wave occurs when an immense dome of high pressure builds over an area, causing air in the upper levels of the 'dome' (or atmosphere) to be pulled toward the ground, where it becomes compressed and increases in temperature as it expands. This high concentration of pressure makes it difficult for other weather systems to move into the area, which is why a heat wave can last for several days or weeks, such as we are seeing right now. The longer the system stays in an area, the hotter the area becomes, and because the high-pressure system also prevents clouds from entering the region, sunlight can become punishing, heating up the system even more. And what makes it even worse – the pressure causes winds to become faint to nonexistent, further suppressing any relief from the heat.

So how will you beat the heat? Here's some tips to help you try!

• Drink more fluids, regardless of your activity level, and don't wait until you're thirsty to drink
• Stay indoors and, if at all possible, stay in an air-conditioned place
• Wear lightweight, light-colored, loose-fitting clothing, and be sure to dress for the weather
• Limit your outdoor activity to morning and evening hours
• Cut down on exercise during the day, and if you must exercise, drink two to four glasses of cool, nonalcoholic fluids each hour
• Protect yourself from the sun by wearing a wide-brimmed hat – an accessory which should also keep you cooler
• And remember, CHECK ON THE ELDERLY and DO NOT KEEP YOUR PETS IN THE CAR

These tips are wise and just a few ways to keep comfortable during this rather oppressive time. But get used to it – it's only the first week of July. We have the rest of the month and all of August ahead of us. Climatologically speaking, the hottest time of the year typically runs from July 20 through August 10.

Stay cool!

NEQ Friday Review, V.9

Here we are into the second month of hurricane season, and well into what is expected to be comparable to the epic season of 2005, which featured the most storms to ever form in the month of July. Among the five storms that formed in July 2005 were two back-to-back category 4 (and 5) storms: Dennis and Emily. Today's NEQ Friday Review looks back at these two monstrous cyclones that five years ago wreaked havoc on the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.

Hurricane Dennis
Hurricane Dennis was the fourth named storm, second hurricane, and first major hurricane of the 2005 season. In July, the hurricane set several records for early season activity, becoming both the earliest formation of a fourth tropical cyclone and the strongest Atlantic hurricane ever to form before August, though it only held that title for about six days until Hurricane Emily (mentioned below) stole its thunder! Dennis hit Cuba twice as a category 4 storm, and made landfall on the Florida Panhandle as a category 3. Dennis caused at least 89 deaths in the United States and Caribbean (primarily Cuba) and caused $2.23 billion in damages to both areas equally and respectively.

Hurricane Emily
Hurricane Emily was the fifth named storm, third hurricane, second major hurricane, and first category 5 of the 2005 season. Emily was the strongest hurricane ever to form before August, and also the earliest category 5 ever recorded in the Atlantic basin, and the only category 5 hurricane ever recorded before August. Emily passed through the Windward Islands, where it caused heavy damage in Grenada and then made a second landfall landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula as a category 4 storm, first on the island of Cozumel and then just north of Tulum on the mainland of Quintana Roo. After crossing the Bay of Campeche, Emily made a final landfall along the north Mexico coast. Across the Caribbean and Mexico, Emily was responsible for about 14 deaths and $810 million in damages.

Well, there you have it... two very intense hurricanes, in one active month, during one very intense hurricane season. In fact, did you know that 2005 was the only season to ever have two hurricanes reach at least category 4 before the end of July? Just something to think about as we look towards the next few weeks...

Enjoy your weekend, and for those stateside... Happy 4th of July!

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Disaster Model Assesses Oil Slick vs. Hurricane

A recent report by Risk Management Solutions (RMS), a company with expertise in the quantification and management of catastrophe risks, further indicates the high potential for a tropical storm or hurricane to pass over and through the gulf oil spill. Wonderful news, right? Ugh, keep reading...

RMS' disaster model is predicting a 13 percent chance that a hurricane will pass over the oil slick and a 7 percent chance that a Category 3 or higher storm hits the slick, which is higher than in an average storm season, when there would be a 4 percent chance of a major hurricane directly hitting the region. A tropical cyclone moving through the slick would bring with it the potential for storm surge to carry tar deposits far inland.

RMS also believes there is about a 15 percent chance that a hurricane or tropical storm comes within 100 miles of the slick by the end of this month (July), and about a 40 percent chance that one does so by the end of August. A storm passing that close to the slick has the potential to bring high waves that break protective booms and allow the oil to be displaced into coastal salt marshes and beaches above the tide line.

Among many of RMS' key niches is providing disaster assessment to insurance companies, and it says the still-growing oil spill will cost insurers between $1 and $3 billion dollars.

It is important to note that residue deposited from oil spill on privately owned property or land as a result of a major hurricane would not be covered by homeowners insurance. Consequently, costs for land-based clean up could be picked up by British Petroleum (BP).

RMS expects the oil spill will have a significant and long-lasting impact on offshore energy insurance availability, rates, and coverages.

Finally, the RMS report concludes that costs for deepwater drilling in the waters off the United States' coastlines will be significantly increased as a result of the inevitable creation of a new offshore regulatory agency.

Time will tell how this all shapes up, but most importantly, be hurricane AND oil ready!