For those of you that have been following The Northeast Quadrant on Facebook, you will notice tons of coverage on the last two winter storms.
I've taken pride in really getting a handle on the computer models that forecast these storms, as well as air patterns and historical happenings associated with big northeast snowfalls. That said, I pretty much nailed the last blizzard forecast, so I thought hey, let me try again!
As another major snowstorm is on tap for the northeast, especially from Philadelphia to Boston, here is my thinking, which I am actually quite confident on...
4:30 pm UPDATE:
Map: *Color legend is below.
By location: Eastern Long Island through Providence and Boston: 12-18"+ New York City metro north and east: 8-12"+ New York City metro south: 5-8"+ Philly metro to central NJ coast: 3-6"+ North of Baltimore to south Philly metro: 2-4"+ Baltimore metro: 1-3"+ DC metro: generally less than 1"
While this update points to somewhat specific locations receiving somewhat specific amounts, each amount is followed by a "+" -- indicating the fate is in the development of the storm and the convective banding it produces.
As of 1:30 pm:
Map:
Legend: Working from the green area that includes Boston as the having the highest snowfall totals, to the yellow area in Pennsylvania and New York state having the lowest, you can see where 'I think' the greatest accumulations will 'range,' and within that 'range' the totals 'could' vary greatly.
By location: Hartford to Boston: 18"+ New York City metro: 12"+ Philly to NYC metro and the south central NJ coast: 6-12" North of Baltimore to southwest of the Philly metro: 4-8" Baltimore metro: 2-4" DC metro: generally less than 2"
In terms of weather extremes 2010 was record setting for many global regions, and New York City's Central Park was no exception. The Park recorded it's fifth warmest year on record with an average temperature of 56.7°F. The warmest year(s) on record for Central Park were ironically recorded during the years of 1990 and 1991, where the average temperature tied at 57.3°F.
So, when in 2010 was it warm? Every month except the first and last. Between February and November Central Park recorded average temperatures well above normal, while January and December stood as the only months where temperatures were below normal.
This image, courtesy of Weather.com, shows current snow cover left behind in the wake of the big blizzard. Notice how this was a truly an I-95 eastward storm. Few areas west of the major interstate saw significant snowfall accumulations, while areas east saw up to 35 inches.
We've been tracking a potentially historic snowstorm along the east coast for the better part of the week, and alas, after much confusion, speculation and flip-flop, the models verified on this monster of a nor'easter!
This blizzard, the latest in a series of "North American Blizzards of 2010" proved to be the most intense of all, and is showing that 2010 will go out with a bang!
The post Christmas day event lasted less than 24 hours for many and was responsible for dumping greater than 30 inches of snow in some areas, and producing 80 mph wind gusts in others.
Blizzard history map, courtesy of AccuWeather.com
Blizzard observed snowfall map courtesy of AccuWeather.com
The New York City metro area, including the eastern half of New Jersey, bore the brunt of of the storm.
Captured here is my footage during the epic nor'easter yesterday, December 26, 2010.
The 2010 Hurricane Season tied with 1887 and 1995 having the third highest storm count on record with 19 named storms. But short-term weather patterns dictate where storms actually travel and in many cases this season, that was away from the United States. The jet stream’s position contributed to warm and dry conditions in the eastern U.S. and acted as a barrier that kept many storms over open water. Also, because many storms formed in the extreme eastern Atlantic, they re-curved back out to sea without threatening land. This movie shows GOES-13 infrared imagery from June 1 through November 30, the official extents of the Atlantic Hurricane Season.
Impact aside, for some time now the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season has been compared to, or at least scaled against, the record-breaking season of 2005 when numerous intense hurricanes made landfall in the United States, central America and Mexico.
With a record 12 hurricanes forming this year, the 2010 season was the most active since 2005. However, the major difference is the location in which tropical cyclones formed and the areas in which their greatest rainfall totals were deposited.
During the 2005 season, the highest tropical cyclone rainfall totals (between 28 and 32 inches) were deposited over the Caribbean Sea, eastern Gulf of Mexico, western Cuba and over the waters in the Atlantic off the southeastern U.S. coast. During the 2010 season the highest tropical cyclone rainfall totals (also between 28 and 32 inches) were deposited over the open waters of the Atlantic north of Puerto Rico.
The image above shows the tropical cyclone rainfall occurring in 2010. This year, south Texas was the only location in the U.S. where tropical cyclone rainfall was greater than in 2005.
With the official close of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season still a week away, the season in pretty much all respect, is over. Sure a late-season storm or two could pop up, but the general pattern observed over the past couple weeks looks to continue, therefore furthering unfavorable conditions for development.
So... how did the season add up? The usual skeptics will say it was a bust, but in my opinion 2010 was remarkably awesome for several reasons – we reached the predicted numbers making the 2010 season one of the most active in history, and while the U.S. experienced little impact, NOAA hit the nail on the head with its early season prediction, calling for:
14 to 23 named storms
8 to 14 hurricanes
3 to 7 major hurricanes
Now check out the actuals:
Average (1966–2009)
2010
Named Storms
8
19
Hurricanes
4
12
Major Hurricanes
1
5
Pretty darn amazing eh? Here's a look at the hurricanes of 2010...
According to a new study recently published in the Journal of Geophysical Research, 'global warming' associated with 'climate change' could cool down northern temperatures during the winter months.
The cooling would be the result of shrinking sea-ice in the eastern Arctic which could cause regional heating of the lower levels of the atmosphere, therefore triggering an overall cooling of the northern continents. Most affected would be Europe and northern Asia in the form of cold winter extremes. You can learn more about the study here.
Meanwhile, scientists at NOAA and several other global climate organizations recently contributed to the paper, "Tropospheric Temperature Trends: History of an Ongoing Controversy," also indicating Earth's lower atmosphere is warming.
Displaying trends using 195 cited papers, model results and atmospheric data sets, the paper documents how, since the development of the very first climate models in the early 1960s, the troposphere has been projected to warm along with the Earth's surface because of the increasing amounts of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. You can learn more about the paper here.
Not too much to talk about in weather news, folks. We're in that transition time from summer to winter and while fall tends to throw us some good punches here and there, things have been quite boring lately... well, for most.
Savor it, the winter pattern is setting up and with that should come more dynamic weather. Of course, The Northeast Quadrant will be on top of it.
In other news, this is kind of a blessing for me because work has been so incredibly busy lately. I can no longer find enough hours in the day or days in the week.
Oh, and a NEW LOGO COMING SOON! Can't wait to share it with you!
Just a quick note to share my apologies with the avid readers and followers of The Northeast Quadrant for not publishing as often as I would like during the last couple weeks. This will likely continue through the next week or so as I work towards a major deadline at work and prepare for a week of business travel and meetings through November 15.
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About The Northeast Quadrant
The Northeast Quadrant is a highly informative blog and global interactive social community for the weather obsessed, written and managed by the weather obsessed!
Near daily blog posts and news shares about ever-changing weather patterns, the evolution of dynamic storm systems, the controversy surrounding climate change; and its effects on our cities, nation and the world, The Northeast Quadrant takes you beyond the weather and brings you closer to science through its unique presentation of incredible news stories and vibrant personal experiences! With thousands of web hits directly on the blog, hundreds of Facebook fans, and Twitter followers, and an overwhelming viewer audience on YouTube, The Northeast Quadrant continues to grow!
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Marketing and Communications Professional; Weather Enthusiast; Recreational Storm Tracker and Reporter; and Amateur Photographer
Ever since I was a young boy I loved the weather!
There was very little that excited me more than watching The Weather Channel since its inception in 1982. Bringing weather to life was the Channel's goal, and it delivered! I remember watching the local forecast as intense lines of storms progressed towards Edison, New Jersey (where I grew up), and being called by my father to join him on the front porch as he watched the storms close in on our neighborhood. I'd run back and forth between the gusty front porch that lied beneath the darkening sky to the cool air-conditioned living room, starring at the television as I glared at the storms getting closer and closer. As the line of vibrant red's and orange's intensified, so did my interest! My obsession for weather was born, and that's where it started!
With the tools I needed at my disposal I continued to closely follow various weather phenomenon: deadly mid-western tornado outbreaks, extreme Mississippi River flooding, Hurricanes Hugo and Andrew, crippling northeastern blizzards like the '93 Superstorm, earthquakes in the Golden State, volcanoes along the Pacific Rim... you name it!
Nearly 30 years later, those who know me well would say I have not changed all that much.
