Research, Trends Indicate Warming Atmosphere

According to a new study recently published in the Journal of Geophysical Research, 'global warming' associated with 'climate change' could cool down northern temperatures during the winter months.

The cooling would be the result of shrinking sea-ice in the eastern Arctic which could cause regional heating of the lower levels of the atmosphere, therefore triggering an overall cooling of the northern continents. Most affected would be Europe and northern Asia in the form of cold winter extremes. You can learn more about the study here.

Meanwhile, scientists at NOAA and several other global climate organizations recently contributed to the paper, "Tropospheric Temperature Trends: History of an Ongoing Controversy," also indicating Earth's lower atmosphere is warming.

Displaying trends using 195 cited papers, model results and atmospheric data sets, the paper documents how, since the development of the very first climate models in the early 1960s, the troposphere has been projected to warm along with the Earth's surface because of the increasing amounts of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. You can learn more about the paper here.

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CESM: New Community Earth System Climate Model

The National Center for Atmospheric Research's (NCAR) new Community Earth System Model (CESM) is now able to study climate change in far more detail, and it will soon be employed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to assess the state of so called "global warming."

One of about a dozen climate models worldwide that can be used to simulate the many components of Earth's climate system, CESM should help answer some critical questions regarding the state of the climate, including:

• What impact will warming temperatures have on the massive ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica?
• How will patterns in the ocean and atmosphere affect regional climate in coming decades?
• How will climate change influence the severity and frequency of tropical cyclones, including hurricanes?
• What are the effects of tiny airborne particles, known as aerosols, on clouds and temperatures?
  

So how does it work?

The CESM builds on the original Community Climate System Model and enables scientists to gain a broader picture of Earth's climate system by incorporating more influences. Using the CESM, researchers can now:

• Simulate the interaction of marine ecosystems with greenhouse gases
• Assess the climatic influence of ozone, dust, and other atmospheric chemicals
• Gain a better understanding of the cycling of carbon through the atmosphere, oceans, and land surfaces
• Review the influence of greenhouse gases on the upper atmosphere
• Pursue a much wider variety of applications, including studies of air quality and biogeochemical feedback mechanisms

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Global Warming vs. Climate Change: What's the Difference?

Here we go again with the 'global warming'/'climate change' talk – but it just seems unavoidable these days. Continuous blog posts here on The Northeast Quadrant touch on recent extreme weather events that may or may not be linked to the man-made or not so man-made phenomenon (I personally believe it's cyclical), and so the coverage continues today.

I am totally convinced news sources are plowing through The Northeast Quadrant because I'm telling ya – each time I write about a story it goes without fail that I find a similar story on a website a few days later. OK, enough inflating my own head...

I recently read on another blog, "because of human-fueled 'global warming,' extreme weather events are occurring with greater frequency, and in many cases with greater intensity.” Naturally, I cringed beyond belief!

The increasing frequency of record and extreme events does appear to be a signal of a changing climate. And no matter the source, more and more extremes are making us think twice, and that includes cautious climate scientists who, like me, won’t link a single weather event to 'global warming' with any certainty. Sure the first six months of 2010 were the warmest on record, but evidence of global warming comes from long-term trends – not short-term, recent extreme weather events.

So what is this all tied to? Is it really 'global warming?' Or is it 'climate change?' I'll answer that as if it's you asking me...

I say it's 'climate change.' What's the difference? 'Global warming,' while obvious, in my opinion points to a long-term drastic issue that we fear fighting. 'Climate change,' on the other hand, is just evident. It is what it is – the climate is clearly 'changing' and although I totally adore Al Gore, I truly believe mankind is not in control of the Earth’s environment. I do truly believe the conditions we are seeing now are cyclical and just because they might (or might not) be, it does not negate its sensitivity, but it does support that the Earth naturally changes its temperature.

So what backs my claim? Look at the big picture – that's all I'm saying. I am not denying we are in a time of [climate] change. But I'm just not sold on the man-made process many are hinting at.

Perhaps I had to rant through this post to get that point across – but I am interested in your thoughts. Leave comments here or on the facebook fan page.

Stay tuned tomorrow for the 200th post from The Northeast Quadrant! Thanks for following!

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Global Extremities of Summer 2010

What a summer it has been! From heat waves to floods and from drought to wildfires and even severe weather outbreaks, extreme weather has been the rule. Just looking back at recent blog posts here on The Northeast Quadrant, it seems that at least once a week a story gets posted about rare and record-breaking weather conditions!

Most recently, monsoon flooding has been wreaking havoc in Pakistan and an extreme heat wave has been fueling wildfires and creating health hazards in Russia, and the National Center for Atmospheric Research agrees that although this time of year always brings treacherous weather to the northern hemisphere, conditions have been quite exceptional – attributing the intense monsoons to La Niña, which typically brings wetter conditions to Asia. Other contributing factors noted are the strong ridge above Pakistan that is blocking the moisture from circulating out of the region as well as the infamous climate change and the long-term warming of the oceans and the atmosphere. In this case, because the Indian Ocean is so warm it's further fueling the heavy rain.

The extreme events seen this summer are likely connected to each other by the currents in the atmosphere. Those currents are responsible for the unusual weather conditions we've been experiencing here in the United States, as well as the extreme heat and drought that has plagued Russia for most of the summer. However, normal seasonal changes should bring some relief to both regions soon.

Some climate-change skeptics (myself included) argue there is not enough information about weather patterns over long periods of history to draw conclusions about extreme weather events and climate change. I personally think it's all natural and cyclical.

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Extreme Heat Could Become Summer's Norm

One thing that has definitely been on our minds more than hurricane season this summer is the extreme heat! It seems that not only the United States, but most locations in the northern hemisphere have been enduring unusually hot, sweltering weather.

In the past month a record heat wave in Russia killed five people and prompted the government to call for siestas. High temperatures in the United States killed five seniors in Maryland, four people in Philadelphia, four people in Dallas, and three people in Tennessee. And to boot, recently released data by NASA shows that global temperatures recorded from January through June 2010 were the highest ever!

Well, guess what? It might be time to get used to it and learn how to deal – these conditions could become the norm in years ahead...

A recent study conducted by Stanford University researchers reveals that unbearable and dangerous heat waves like the one we're now experiencing will emerge on a regular basis by 2039. Such heat waves are obviously devastating and have resulted in illness and fatalities, but they have also proved to destroy crops and challenge energy grids.

The group studied the hottest temperatures in the United States from 1950-1999, then fed them through multiple forecasting models that can simulate daily temperatures over the next 30 years. The results concluded that we could see an increase in heat waves like the one occurring now or the kind that swept across Europe in 2003 that caused tens of thousands of fatalities and put enormous stress on major crops. The forecasting models were based on the likely occurrence that carbon dioxide could raise temperatures 1.8°C degrees. The findings mean that to avoid severe heat waves, governments must look at the possibility that even a two degree increase is too much.

In related news, the heat continues! AccuWeather.com is expecting this Saturday, July 24, to feel like the hottest day of the summer so far from New York City south to Raleigh, North Carolina, thanks to not only a massive surge of heat, but also excessive humidity. As if it has not been hot enough already, the heat index on Saturday could reach an excessive and oppressive 115°F!

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A Future of Harsh Winters Could Rule Mid-Lats

Despite global warming and climate change, recent statements by NOAA's Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL) point towards a future of more cold and snowy winters (in other words, the potential for patterns to evolve similar to that of this past winter) for Europe, eastern Asia and eastern North America.

Why the claim? El Niño and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) aside, the exceptional cold and snowy winter of this past year in the above-mentioned regions, is connected to unique physical processes in the Arctic. The Arctic is warming more than twice as fast as the rest of the planet. This is known as Arctic amplification, and these changes are happening a great deal faster than the scientific community expected.

It seems a warmer Arctic climate and a loss of sea ice is influencing the air pressure at the North Pole and shifting wind patterns, allowing for the disruption of the memory and stability of the Arctic climate system. This will be an important driver of major change in the world's climate system in the years to come and will likely be seen first across the mid-latitudes.

Experts say that given the recent reduction of the area of multi-year sea ice and reduced ice thickness, it is unlikely that the Arctic can return to its previous condition.

NASA to Explore Arctic... By Sea, Not Space

Last year, a study using data from a NASA satellite showed that Arctic sea ice thinned dramatically between the winters of 2004 and 2008.

Now – a couple years later, in its first dedicated oceanographic field campaign, more than 40 NASA scientists are heading to the Arctic to further study the impact of climate change. Their five-week expedition, dubbed ICESCAPE (Impacts of Climate on Ecosystems and Chemistry of the Arctic Pacific Environment), kicks off next Tuesday (June 15) aboard a U.S. Coast Guard icebreaker, and will focus on how varying physical, chemical, and biological ice conditions affect the ecosystems in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas. These Seas and the Arctic Ocean, unlike others, is almost completely landlocked, making it an ideal location to study ongoing climate changes in a marine ecosystem already heavily impacted by declining sea ice cover, ocean acidification, and an increase in incoming solar radiation.

NASA’s findings will ultimately help supplement the above-mentioned data that its satellites have for years collected on arctic ice (and ice-free) conditions.

A follow-up voyage is scheduled for the fall of 2011.

Study Implicates Sunspots in Hurricane Forecasts

Sunspots may predict hurricanes as well as global warming and cooling, says a recent study conducted by Florida State University.

The study, which was presented to the American Meteorological Society and published in the scientific journal, Geophysical Research Letters, indicates the probability of hurricanes hitting the United States increases dramatically during low points of the 11-year sunspot cycle, such as we are currently experiencing.

Sunspots have long been implicated in the global climate. During periods of high sunspot activity, which occurred throughout the Medieval Warm Period, global temperatures rose. During the low points in sunspot activity, such as in the Little Ice Age, temperatures declined.

How does this affect hurricanes? Well, years with few sunspots and above-normal ocean temperatures, as is the case now, spawn a less stable atmosphere and, consequently, more hurricanes. When that happens, the differential creates more atmospheric instability and stronger storms, energizing what might otherwise remain tropical storms into hurricanes. Years with more sunspots but still above-normal ocean temperatures yield a more stable atmosphere and thus fewer hurricanes.

So here's the breakdown in numbers...

• The chance of at least one hurricane hitting the United States spikes to 64 percent in the lowest sunspot years, compared to only a 25 percent chance in peak sunspot years.
  
  
• Chances of three or more hurricanes hitting the United States increase from 20 percent to 40 percent in years when sunspots are in the lowest 25 percent, compared with years when they're in the highest 25 percent.

Interestingly, there are a whole bunch of predictors hurricane experts have been looking at when issuing their extreme forecasts for the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, however, sunspots was not one of them. To that extent, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is considering using sunspots cycles as a predictor in future forecasts as they continue to see more evidence.

NEQ Friday Review, V.3

I am on the train this morning riding Amtrak's Northeast Corridor from New York City to Boston, as I embark on a week of business meetings. A gorgeous morning indeed, the skies are deep blue and as we pulled away from the Big Apple just about an hour ago, the sunkissed skyline was magnificently displayed in my left window while the edgy coastline of Long Island lay to my right. Check out this photo that I snapped on my iPhone as the train was pushing away from the city.

In this week's NEQ Friday Review I am actually going to review last month. Did you know that since record-keeping began in 1880, April 2010 was the warmest April EVER recorded across the globe, and the second consecutive warmest month? It's true!

For the United States specifically, it was the 14th warmest April with five states recording their warmest: Illinois, Maine, Rhode Island, Connecticut, and New Jersey. Sixteen other states had their top 10 warmest.

Additionally, no other period from January through April has been warmer on planet Earth. This means that 2010 is on track to be the warmest year ever! Hard to believe when the year kicked-off with sub-freezing temperatures and epic blizzards, but hey... that's just here – we're talking globally now!

One other interesting fact – the decade beginning in 2000 has also been recorded as the warmest.

Global warming? Climate change? You decide...

Climate Change Gives Greenland a Lift

A recent study conducted by the University of Miami (and supported by the National Science Foundation and NASA), indicates that Greenland's ice is melting so quickly that the land underneath it is rising at an accelerated pace.

The north Atlantic island nation, which features a rocky coast of stunning fjords formed by moving glaciers, and a dense icecap that covers much of country, is literally rising as the ice pressing down the land beneath it continues to melt. According to the study some coastal areas are lifting by nearly one inch per year and if current trends continue, that number could accelerate to as much as two inches per year by 2025.

The idea behind the study is that if Greenland is losing its ice cover, the resulting loss of weight causes the rocky surface beneath to rise, therefore literally giving a boost to the country's elevation.

Melting of Greenland's ice contributes to global sea level rise. Experts say if the acceleration of uplift and the implied acceleration of melting continue, Greenland could soon become the largest contributor to global sea level rise.

SHOCKING! EPA Says Climate Change is Real Problem for U.S.

According to a new and recently released report by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), climate change is in fact to blame for the recent bout of storminess to affect the United States. From those record-breaking blizzards to summer heat waves, and from tropical cyclone development to deadly tornadoes, the EPA is officially defining climate change as a very real problem for our nation.

Surprise, surprise… right!?!? Interestingly, the report releases just as the U.S. Senate debates whether to take up a climate bill before an immigration one.

The report is said to display indisputable evidence that human activities such as electricity production and transportation are adding to the concentrations of greenhouse gases that are already naturally present in the atmosphere, therefore causing more frequent, violent storms and heat waves.

USA Today illustrated that the report's key findings included:

• Greenhouse gas emissions from human activities are increasing. Between 1990 and 2008, there has been about a 14 percent increase in emissions in the United States.


• Average temperatures are rising. Seven of the top 10 warmest years on record for the continental United States have occurred since 1990.


• Tropical cyclone intensity has increased in recent decades. Six of the 10 most active hurricane seasons have occurred since the mid-1990s.


• Sea levels are rising. From 1993 to 2008, sea level rose twice as fast as the long-term trend.


• Glaciers are melting. Loss of glacier volume appears to have accelerated over the last decade.
  
  
• The frequency of heat waves has risen steadily since the 1960s. The percentage of the U.S. population impacted by heat waves has also increased.

So... I'm not quite sure what impact this has on all of us. Carry on, I guess...

Inuit’s Verify Arctic Weather is Increasingly Unpredictable

A recent study confirms that weather in part of the Arctic is becoming more unpredictable – a claim verified by Inuit elders and hunters. According to the large population of Arctic natives, the weather is not just getting warmer, it's getting weirder.

Specific climate change research in the Arctic region began as an attempt to reconcile differences between what Inuit’s were saying about their weather and what scientists were recording. Inuit hunters used to be able to count on stable weather, but were increasingly complaining that conditions were swinging wildly from day to day, making their traditional prediction skills less useful and endangering them on the land. However, such anomalies weren't showing up in the long-range studies developed by researchers.

In trying to understand the difference, the weather in two Nunavut communities – Baker Lake and Clyde River – were examined for short-term, day-to-day variability. Inuit hunters said that the greatest unpredictability was in June's spring weather. Therefore, a study was conducted that combined weather information from detailed, lengthy hunter interviews together with hourly temperature logs dating back more than 40 years. The two information sources backed each other up. Likewise, a statistical analysis showed that in the 1960s, June weather persistence was about 80 percent of the maximum rating. By the turn of the millennium, persistence had dropped as low as 20 percent. The conclusion made was that the weather itself isn't necessarily outside the normal range, but the speed with which it changes is.

This is not the first time scientists have turned to native people for information. NOAA has twice changed its report of the Arctic's whale population based on indigenous people’s report that revealed more whales than counted by the government.

European Satellite to Map Earth's Ice... or Lack Thereof

The European Space Agency (ESA) launched Thursday from Kazakhstan its CryoSat-2 satellite in an effort to map Earth’s ice cover. From its polar orbit, CryoSat-2 will send back data leading to new insights into how ice is responding to climate change. In doing so it will measure changes in the thickness of the vast ice sheets that overlie Antarctica and Greenland, as well as variations in the thickness of the relatively thin ice floating in the polar oceans.

The launch of CryoSat-2 is the third in a series of ESA's Earth observation satellites now orbiting the planet. These 'Earth Explorers' as ESA calls them, are periodically launched in direct response to issues identified by the scientific community and aim to improve our understanding of how human activity is affecting Earth's natural processes.

I think it's pretty neat indeed, to see other world regions working on Earth science issues just as NASA does here in the U.S.!

Link Between Extreme Precipitation Events and Global Warming?

A recently released study by global warming education group Clean Air-Cool Planet and the University of New Hampshire (UNH) indicates there may be a link between global warming and the extreme precipitation events that continue to plague the Northeast.

The study examined 60 years (1948 to 2007) of rainfall records from 219 National Weather Service reporting stations in nine Northeastern states (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Vermont) and found that storms that produce an inch or more of precipitation in a day — a threshold the recent storms far surpassed — are coming more frequently.

According to the UNH, the study's results are consistent with what could be expected in a world warmed by greenhouse gases, though it would take more sophisticated studies to cement an official global warming link.

However, what is more certain is the potential economic impact should the 60-year trend continue. It would require billions of dollars in infrastructure investments to manage the impacts of these extreme weather events, i.e. improvements in roads, bridges, sewers and culverts.

Art Installation Draws Attention to Climate Change

A Dutch artists has found a unique way to draw attention to climate change. His recently debuted art installation sits atop a melting iceberg near the town of Uummannaq in western Greenland.

The 45-year old artist, Ap Verheggen, from The Hague, said he had built the swirling metal sculptures, which represent a dog sled, to highlight the impact of a warmer climate on the Inuit people, who struggle to move around on thinning ice. The sculptures are expected to drift southwards on top of the ice and ultimately end up in the ocean as the ice melts.

As climate change means culture change, Verheggen believes that global warming has affected Inuit culture, and melting icebergs threaten its survival.

To raise awareness for their cause globally, the sculptures are fitted with monitors enabling a worldwide audience to follow their journey atop the iceberg. The project can be viewed here.

British Government's Jack & Jill Climate Advert Rebuked

“Jack and Jill went up the hill to fetch a pail of water. There was none as extreme weather due to climate change had caused a drought.”

A British government ad campaign sponsored by the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) is facing scrutiny by the UK government watchdog, Advertising Standards Authority (ASA). Two of the ads, which are intended to warn about the purported dangers of man made climate change, were found to have unsubstantiated claims in them. The two offending ads were based on the nursery rhymes of ‘Jack and Jill’ and ‘Rub a Dub Dub’, and warned of the effects of extreme weather, a claim which has long been disputed.

"Rub a dub dub three men in a tub, a necessary course of action due to flash flooding caused by climate change."

The ASA says the DECC made exaggerated claims about the threat to Britain from global warming and the ads were beyond mainstream scientific consensus.

When asked about the claim, a spokesperson from ASA noted that, "Many of those who complained found the ads would be distressing to children and many objected to the implication that climate change is caused by human activity."

Two other not-so-controversial ads facing less scrutiny are based on the nursery rhymes of 'Twinkle Twinkle Little Star,' and 'Hey Diddle Diddle,' and read as follows:

"Twinkle twinkle little star how I wonder what you are, up above the world so high, looking down at dangerously high levels of CO2 in the atmosphere."

"Hey diddle diddle, the cat and the fiddle, the cow jumped over the moon on discovering just how easy it was to reduce our CO2 emissions."

Whatever the claim, whatever the scrutiny... aside from the fact that the ad agency responsible for creating these ads is horrible at rhyming and could really (i mean, really!) use some more creativity in keeping with the theme, I absolutely love them!

If you are interested in viewing the controversial advertisements, click here and enjoy!

Global Warming Could Increase Effects of Atmospheric Blocking

Research now being conducted by the University of Missouri's Atmospheric Science department, indicates that atmospheric blocking, a general stagnation in the weather pattern, such as never-ending heat waves or winter storms like we saw this past summer and winter, can and will have a significant impact on local agriculture, business and the environment. And wait, hold your breath, here it comes... yup, as expected, such weather patterns could be increasing due to global warming!

The goal of the research is to ultimately help forecasters better predict blocking and warn people in the path of severe weather of these potential long-lasting, life-impacting events, and in conducting the research, they are trying to see if increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and the resulting atmospheric warming will affect the onset and duration of future blocking occurrences.

Blocking usually results when a powerful, high-pressure area gets stuck in one place and, because they cover a large area, fronts behind them are blocked. It is anticipated that in a warmer world, blocking events will be more numerous and longer-lived, therefore resulting in an environment with more storms. Areas most impacted would be North America, Europe and Asia.

Climate Change Olympics

When it comes to weather and this year's Olympics everyone is talking about how warm it's been in Vancouver, and how little snow, if any, is on the ground to support the wintry-themed event. The Northeast Quadrant blogged about it well before major news outlets really drilled the story home, and even today Accuweather.com posted a headline "Olympic Weather Not Very Wintry."

Well Vancouver, you should feel lucky you're on the leading edge of what the future has in store for the Winter Games. XXI could be worse...

January 2010 Was Warmest Month In 32 Years

On its path to breaking records set 32 years ago, January 2010 was recorded as the warmest month across the globe since 1978... and it's being attributed to the strong El Niño climate pattern we are currently experiencing.

In a USA Today article published on Friday, it states that according to climatologists, the Earth was about 1.3 degrees above average last month. Sounds a bit skeptical to those of us in the United States and Europe that have been experiencing winter weather extremes in the form of record breaking low temperatures and snowfall. But our weather conditions are only a very small fraction of Earth's overall dynamic atmospheric environment.

The main heat in January is said to have come from the subtropical areas, especially from the Sahara through Arabia and South Asia.

Meanwhile in the United States, nearly three quarters of the nation is snow covered and for the first time in 14 years, Lake Erie, with an average depth of 62 feet, completely froze over!

And these crazy extremes are why we love weather!

Climate Change Responsible for Butterfly Homicide

Biologists in the Golden State announced this week that butterflies are joining the list of unfortunate victims of climate change.

A University of California study found that butterflies living at lower elevations are slowly migrating towards mountain tops to escape the hotter, more volatile weather conditions (and urban development), while butterflies already living on mountain tops have no escape and are simply dying.

Butterflies have long been regarded as an early warning indicator for climate change. But because the environment is changing so quickly and they have very little time to cope, their already short life cycles and high sensitivity to temperature make them especially vulnerable.

Another recent study indicates the same issue occured in the eastern United States, stating that climate change was one possible explanation for a sharp decline in female monarch butterflies there.

Poor butterflies!