The 2011 Hurricane Season is quickly approaching, and forecasters are predicting a weakening La Niña turning into a more neutral stage by the Summer. Many people are saying how great this is, and that this basically means a very tame season awaits us in the Atlantic this year. Surely this is great news for the Gulf Coast residents and all of the Southeastern U.S. residents who could be affected by the potential storms this Summer. But I say take it with a grain of salt. This is not the time to start celebrating because La Niña may or may not be weakening by the Summer. This is the time to start preparing for the upcoming Hurricane Season regardless of anyone's early forecast of less activity.
The quote that you will hear a lot as we approach this upcoming season is "La Niña, which causes more hurricanes, will be turning to a more neutral phase for this Summer. This means less hurricanes." I don't agree with people who say this, because it gives the average person a false sense of security for the upcoming season. There are a few things to consider as we approach this June. Firstly, take a look at the image below. It is a chart of storm activity measured from 1995-2005. The bars represent the number of major hurricanes formed during each phase. During a La Niña phase there was an average of about 4 major storms formed during those seasons. Now here comes the shocker, there were actually more storms formed during a Neutral phase (which we are heading into this Summer), then were formed during the dreaded La Niña years. About 4.5 on average. There was a slight drop off for a Weak to Moderate El Niño phase. The biggest and most noticeable drop came during a Strong El Niño phase, which we are certainly not going to experience for this upcoming season.
The second thing we we need to understand is each season has a mind of its own. Each storm has a respective life journey. No one could have predicted the ridiculous activity during the 2005 season, or the incredible luck that the U.S. experienced during last season. There were tropical systems all over the Atlantic in 2010, 21 to be exact. 12 of those were hurricanes, and yet the U.S. was not affected by any of them. So 2010 was predicted to be one of the worst seasons in history. That prediction came true to an extent because of the number of storms, but as far as people affected by the systems it was over hyped. Let's go back to 1992 for a second. There were only 7 storms which formed that year, and only one land falling hurricane. That hurricane was Andrew. So although the numbers were down that year, it was one of the most devastating years in history as far as South Florida is concerned. Now back to 2005 one last time, it was quite a year as far as storms go. 28 storms made their journey across the Atlantic that year, a staggering record that probably won't be touched anytime soon. But 2005 was not a La Niña year. So although it is fun to read the preseason predictions when it comes to each Hurricane Season. Always remember that it is not an exact science. Every season has a different story. Every storm has a unique lifespan. And these story lines cannot be written before June arrives. We must all just take our seat, and watch how each season plays out.
Impact aside, for some time now the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season has been compared to, or at least scaled against, the record-breaking season of 2005 when numerous intense hurricanes made landfall in the United States, central America and Mexico.
With a record 12 hurricanes forming this year, the 2010 season was the most active since 2005. However, the major difference is the location in which tropical cyclones formed and the areas in which their greatest rainfall totals were deposited.
During the 2005 season, the highest tropical cyclone rainfall totals (between 28 and 32 inches) were deposited over the Caribbean Sea, eastern Gulf of Mexico, western Cuba and over the waters in the Atlantic off the southeastern U.S. coast. During the 2010 season the highest tropical cyclone rainfall totals (also between 28 and 32 inches) were deposited over the open waters of the Atlantic north of Puerto Rico.
The image above shows the tropical cyclone rainfall occurring in 2010. This year, south Texas was the only location in the U.S. where tropical cyclone rainfall was greater than in 2005.
With the official close of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season still a week away, the season in pretty much all respect, is over. Sure a late-season storm or two could pop up, but the general pattern observed over the past couple weeks looks to continue, therefore furthering unfavorable conditions for development.
So... how did the season add up? The usual skeptics will say it was a bust, but in my opinion 2010 was remarkably awesome for several reasons – we reached the predicted numbers making the 2010 season one of the most active in history, and while the U.S. experienced little impact, NOAA hit the nail on the head with its early season prediction, calling for:
14 to 23 named storms
8 to 14 hurricanes
3 to 7 major hurricanes
Now check out the actuals:
Average (1966–2009)
2010
Named Storms
8
19
Hurricanes
4
12
Major Hurricanes
1
5
Pretty darn amazing eh? Here's a look at the hurricanes of 2010...
Comprehensive hurricane research project proves successful!
Last week NASA concluded its GRIP (Genesis and Rapid Intensification Process) hurricane research mission aimed at gaining a better understanding of tropical cyclone behavior—how they form, evolve and strengthen, and how they weaken and die. GRIP, which launched in mid-July, promises to revolutionize tropical weather forecasts in years to come.
How it worked The GRIP mission analyzed storms with manned and unmanned aircraft as well as satellite imagery. The aircraft, ready for deployment at a moments notice, were based along the U.S. Gulf coast and northern Caribbean islands and were equipped with 15 weather instruments, ranging from an advanced microwave sounder to dropsondes—gadgets that record atmospheric and surface measurements as they fall through the atmosphere to the ocean surface.
The perfect specimens While tropical cyclone impact for the season remains quite low for U.S. coastal communities, two hurricanes, Earl and Karl were significant for GRIP's research. Earl, a category 4 storm that spun through the central and western Atlantic, was analyzed as it rapidly intensified and degraded off the southeast coast before heading northward towards the Canadian maritime region. During this time GRIP sent several aircraft into the storm, penetrating its eye and sending back critical storm data that offered insight into wind speed and direction as well as wind shear's affect on hurricanes moving swiftly through northern latitudes. Similarly, Karl, which was a strengthening category 3 at landfall, was penetrated by additional aircraft as it plowed into the Mexican coast. These aircraft captured valuable data such as cloud temperature, air pressure, humidity, precipitation, convection and sea surface temperatures. GRIP continued it's research after Karl moved inland and deteriorated, also providing perspective on how land friction affects hurricane degradation.
The seasonal scorecard The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season concludes November 31 and remains quite active, with 18 storms, of which 16 have been named. 8 of those named storms became hurricanes, of which 5 were major.
You might be wondering what the numbers in the title of this post refer to. Well wonder no more because I'm going to tell you these numbers reference the scorecard for the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season – a season that will go down in the record books as one of the most active in history!
Wait, what!? How can it be one of the most active?
You mean you haven't heard that more than half the storms, major hurricanes included, have gone out to sea as 'fish storms?' That's right... it's been a very active hurricane season but with little U.S. impact, who knew?!
With the formation of Hurricane Otto today, the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season now features a total of 17 storms, 15 of which have been named and of those, 8 became hurricanes. Of those hurricanes, 5 were majors (category 3, i.e. 115 mph or higher). A typical hurricane season produces about 10 storms, of which 6 become hurricanes.
Before the start of hurricane season experts warned of the threat of not only an active season but a very high impact one, however, as mentioned and observed, U.S. impact has been quite minimal outside of a few tropical storms, a depression and glancing blow from Hurricane Earl.
While we are hitting the numbers big time, somewhat unexpected atmospheric conditions have steered a great number of storms away from U.S. coastlines. Who's complaining right? Well, aside from the storm chasers and weather enthusiasts!
Hurricane tracks are greatly influenced by the aforementioned atmospheric conditions. The upper level currents steer hurricanes in a variety of ways and storm tracks are highly dependent on where the storms form and the steering currents at that particular time. According to National Hurricane Center (NHC) Director, Bill Read, with the weather pattern that was in place and the fact that this season's storms formed so far out to the east, it's not surprising that they turned off to the north. As soon as you find a weakness in the big high (known as the Bermuda High) you'll get that effect. This follows the same methodology that Greg Nordstrom and I refer to often in The Weathervein. When storms form east of 35W longitude they will 9 out of 10 times curve out to sea.
Time will tell what the remainder of hurricane season will bring but we only have 6 names left on the list before they are used up. Those names are Paula, Richard, Shary, Tomas, Virginie and Walter. Thereafter we would be required to begin using the Greek alphabet as we did only one time before – in 2005. However, time is running out.
I created a graphic this morning for The Northeast Quadrant's Facebook page WEATHER PHOTO OF THE DAY album which depicts satellite images of the four category 4's of 2010 (so far), featuring Hurricanes Danielle, Earl, Igor and Julia.
These four storms were classic Cape Verde hurricanes and while Danielle and Julia remained out to sea, Earl and Igor directly and indirectly impacted land mass. Both Igor and Julia attained category 4 strength simultaneously – an occurrence that has not happened since September 16, 1926.
I thought this was a pretty cool way of showing that no two storms are alike despite their similar characteristics!
After a slow start to a hurricane season that was hyped to be anything but slow, today marks the first full day since the development of Tropical Depression #6 on August 21 (which would later become Hurricane Danielle) that we've gone without a named storm in the Atlantic basin. Although we almost did it between September 5–6 when Hurricane Earl dissipated in the north Atlantic, we were surprised when Tropical Depression #10 (which would later become Tropical Storm Hermine) quickly spun up in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico before making landfall in extreme northeastern Mexico. This marks a total of 36 days having a named storm, the longest such period since the 2002 Atlantic hurricane season, which had remained completely active for 45 days from August 29 through October 12.
We are well into an above-average Atlantic hurricane season with 13 named storms and two unnamed tropical depressions, and there are only eight more names available for use before we'd need to break into Greek alphabet, which has only been done once in history – during the epic 2005 Atlantic hurricane season. With that said, today's break in activity leaves us on edge after yesterday's degeneration of both Lisa and Matthew, wondering where Nicole is... and will Otto follow?
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) there is an increasingly likely chance we'll see our next named storm this week as an area of convection continues to flare up in the northwest Caribbean Sea which in the short-term seems to have its eyes on the southeastern Gulf coast. Meanwhile, a very small area of convection flared overnight in the central Atlantic, but development of this system is not likely in the near-term.
There is not yet an official invest on the system in the Caribbean but by day's end I would expect to see 96L pop up! At that time the computer models should have a better handle on what the system might do – where it might go, how fast it might develop and how strong it could become. To that extent I encourage all interests in the northwest Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico to monitor possible development in this region as the break in tropical activity seems to be short-lived!
[UPDATE #1: As of 3:30 p.m. ET 09-27-10, we officially have 96L invest.] [UPDATE#2: As of 11:00 a.m. ET 09-28-10, we officially have Tropical Depression #16.] I'll leave you with 2010 Atlantic hurricane season scorecard, courtesy of The Weather Channel:
Yesterday on Facebook I was admiring some graphics posted by Michael Laca, which using computer generated scenarios, depicted SLOSH (Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes) inundation "worst-case" storm surge situations for several locations in Florida. Michael, a veteran hurricane chaser with over 25 years experience, runs the website TROPMET.COM, and after seeing these startling graphics my interest was immediately sparked to see what would happen "if" a major hurricane barreled into a northeast location from New Jersey to Cape Cod, including New York City. Michael gladly helped me out and produced the SLOSH inundation maps below using the MOM (Maximum Of Maximum) algorithm for each surge basin, which is agnostic of a specific track.
A couple things to note: The SLOSH analysis typically considers hypothetical scenarios – from 10 different directions, four forward speeds, five intensities and 10 to 20 landfall points within a basin, resulting in anywhere from 2,000 to 4,000 combinations of storm scenarios. The program then analyzes each combination and generates a MEOW (Maximum Envelope of Water) for all variations of similar scenarios (such as a category 4, moving northwest at 15 mph, making landfall at 20 different locations within the basin), and then retains the highest surge value at each grid square. The MOM then preserves each of the highest values from each MEOW, resulting in a graphic depicting the highest surge value for any point within the basin across all possible combinations of storms.
So what does that all mean? The maps below show the worst-case scenario at any one point when you consider ALL possible scenarios. That does not mean that for one specific storm scenario, that all areas shown in these maps will experience a "worst-case" surge, since each storm's size, strength, and forward speed will dramatically change the inundation at any particular location. It should also be stressed that these maps are only intended as guidance and should not be used to make decisions on specific evacuations always listen to emergency management and local officials when it comes to an actual event.
Worst case scenario for Manhattan / Hudson River, New York. Exceptionally high surge values of 30–32 feet above MSL (Mean Sea Level) can be expected in several locations, with widespread inundations between 20–25 feet experienced elsewhere.
Worst case scenario for Long Island, New York. Exceptionally high and widespread surge values of 30–33 feet above MSL can be expected along Atlantic facing coastal locations, with extensive inundations between 15–20 feet experienced elsewhere.
Worst case scenario for western Long Island, New York. Exceptionally high and widespread surge values of 30–33 feet above MSL can be expected along Atlantic facing coastal locations, with extensive inundations between 15–20 feet experienced elsewhere.
Worst case scenario for New Jersey / Delaware Bay. Highest surge values of 18–20 feet above MSL can be expected in several locations, with extensive inundations between 10–15 feet experienced elsewhere.
Worst case scenario for Providence, Rhode Island / Cape Cod, Massachusetts. Extremely high surge values of 35–39 feet above MSL can be expected in isolated locations at the heads of rivers and bays, with widespread inundations between 15–20 feet experienced elsewhere.
A team of researchers at the University of Hong Kong developed a computer model to track the movement of a simulated tropical cyclone traveling across varying terrain, and found that big cities such as New York, Miami, New Orleans and Houston could act as magnets for hurricane landfalls.
How so? The results of the research, which will soon be published in the Journal of Geophysical Research, indicates that tropical cyclones tend to be attracted towards areas of higher friction. Therefore rough areas of land, including city buildings and naturally jagged land cover might actually attract what would ordinarily be passer-by hurricanes.
To obtain that conclusion the team modeled the effects that different terrain has on these storms to determine how cities that lie in the path of a hurricane change the storm's motion. They found that rough cityscapes (and forests alike) trap and compresses air, forcing it up into the atmosphere, which translates to added energy in the storm and a pulling of the center of circulation towards the rough region. Their model suggests that a city can cause a hurricane to swerve from its predicted path by as much as 20 miles.
Interesting, but not a concept I haven't heard before. Just look at that last-minute easterly jog of Charley right before landfall in southwest Florida! Friction all the way!
Hurricane formation and movement is now largely tracked by satellites, but a new project set to launch on August 15 hopes to change that!
The project is called PREDICT and stands for the Pre-Depression Investigation of Cloud Systems in the Tropics, and is funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF) with support from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). PREDICT will run for 45 days through September 30 and it is going to study why some tropical thunderstorms grow into the often-deadly hurricanes while many others dissipate.
Flying aboard Gulfstream aircraft, PREDICT researchers will make observations from close proximity, and above, storm systems. In addition to deploying dropsondes – parachute-borne instrument packages, the researchers will use remote sensing and cloud physics instruments to gather data on temperature, humidity, wind speed and direction, and characteristics of ice particles and their nuclei, which may include African dust.
PREDICT will coordinate its effort with two additional concurrent, but independent, missions in the region – one organized by NASA and one run by NOAA. While all three projects have independent objectives, scientists hope that the collective data will paint a more complete picture of a hurricane's life cycle.
Want to learn more? Check out this great video that explains the PREDICT concept from an experts point of view!
Last week The Weather Channel broadcast the threat of a hurricane hitting the New York City area, and additional local and national news outlets have since picked up the story – and The Northeast Quadrant is no exception!
It's been over a hundred years since a hurricane directly hit New York City and luck could be running out for a metropolis that never ruminates about such natural disasters. According to The Weather Channel, New York City is the number two most vulnerable U.S. city to be hit by a major hurricane, which would prove absolutely devastating! Factors like population density, amount of property near coastal areas and the length of time since the last major hurricane support the city's vulnerability.
New York City is mostly surrounded by water that could flood critical infrastructures during a lengthy hurricane aftermath, and it is populated by several million people, making evacuation a huge challenge.
The 90° angle-shape of the coastline, where the Atlantic Ocean points ominously at New York City, New Jersey and Long Island, makes the Big Apple especially vulnerable to storm surge. A major hurricane hit the New York City area in 1821 and created a storm surge of up to 13 feet and caused the Hudson and East rivers to meet across lower Manhattan. 117 years later that does not bode well for the MTA – New York's transit system which runs the extremely complex subway. Even on a sunny day, nearly 13 million gallons of water are pumped from New York City subways – imagine the submersion of the system if a major hurricane hit! Even a Category 1 or 2 hurricane would require a major evacuation and could cause a lot of damage!
There is a 23 percent chance the NYC-area will be hit with a tropical storm or hurricane in 2010 (normal value is 15 percent)
There is a 7 percent chance the NYC-area will be hit with a major hurricane (category 3 or stronger) in 2010 (normal value is 4 percent)
There is a 99.4 percent chance the NYC-area will be hit with a hurricane in the next 50 years
There is a 90 percent chance the NYC-area will be hit with a major hurricane (category 3 or stronger) in the next 50 years.
While it is impossible to predict exactly when and where a hurricane will make landfall, every New Yorker should have a plan. But don't take my word for it! Check out this clip...
A New York City hurricane evacuation map can be downloaded [.pdf]here.
NASA is hopping on the hurricane bandwagon and will soon kick off a new mission aimed at getting a better grip on how tropical storms form and develop into [major] hurricanes. The mission is called GRIP and stands for Genesis and Rapid Intensification Process, and it will fly aircraft and unmanned air vehicles (for up to 20 hours straight) into the storms this summer. Grip is expected to provide a sustained, continuous look at hurricane behavior at critical times during their formation and evolution, i.e. how they strengthen, weaken and die.
The hurricane research fleet for GRIP is made up of one Global Hawk UAV, a McDonnell Douglas DC-8 and a Martin WB-57F Canberra. The six-week program, which begins on August 15, is NASA's first major US-based hurricane field campaign since 2001.
The aircraft will carry a total of 15 instruments, ranging from an advanced microwave sounder to dropsondes that take measurements as they fall through the atmosphere to the ocean surface. In order to determine how a tropical cyclone will behave, the instruments will analyze many factors, including cloud droplet and aerosol concentrations, air temperature, wind speed and direction in storms and on the ocean's surface, air pressure, humidity, lightning, aerosols, and water vapor. The data also will validate the observations from space.
The CloudSat spacecraft will provide cloud profiles of storms, which include altitude, temperatures and rainfall intensity.
Several instruments on board NASA's Aqua satellite will provide infrared, visible and microwave data that reveal such factors as temperature, air pressure, precipitation, cloud ice content, convection and sea surface temperatures.
According to recently published research by the Mathematics Research Centre (CRM) and Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, there is a definite mathematical relation between the number of hurricanes produced in certain parts of the world and the amount of energy they release. The research is now published in the Nature Physics online journal and suggests that the evolution of hurricane intensity will be very difficult to predict and that such forecasts could never be feasible.
The research was concluded from a comprehensive set of data in which the two arms analyzed tropical cyclones that have occurred across the globe between 1945 and 2007. The first conclusion states that a hurricane's dynamics can be the result of a critical process, therefore making it impossible to predict its intensity.The second conclusion is related to the effects of global warming on the behavior of tropical cyclones, stating that the recent increase in activity cannot be explained 'solely' on the basis of climate change.
The final discovery supports the fact that hurricanes follow a precise mathematical formula known as a power-law. The number of hurricanes is inversely proportional to the energy released, except for the highest values of energy, where the relation is suddenly interrupted. In other words, the cut-off point where the power-law does not represent the behavior of hurricanes is influenced by factors such as average sea surface temperature and the El Niño phenomenon.
Pretty interesting stuff! Learn more about the study here.
A recently published article in the Brownsville (Texas) Herald yielded evidence to the inexact science of tropical weather forecasting. The article caught my attention because tropical forecasts are often times frustrating for many as they are probably one of the most erratic predictions meteorologists deal with, and because the story comes from a news outlet in a region that recently dealt with the aberrant forecasts of Hurricane Alex.
Despite the fact that tropical forecasting has not changed much in the last 20 years, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is improving its ability to forecast storm intensity and tracks through its Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP). The Project aims to reduce the average errors of hurricane track and intensity forecasts by 20 percent within five years and 50 percent in 10 years with a forecast period out to seven days. The NHC will do so through the development of advanced hurricane models, data assimilation systems and through the optimal use of real observations.
Using regional data in the Brownsville area, the NHC is now studying six tropical cyclones — Tropical Storm Beryl in 2000, Tropical Storm Bertha in 2002, Hurricane Erika in 2003, Hurricane Emily in 2005, Hurricane Dolly in 2008 and last week’s Hurricane Alex.
Speaking of difficult forecasting, what better time than now to call attention to one of my most valued tropical forecasting and analysis resources – a blog called Eye of the Storm, written by meteorologist and storm chaser, Greg Nordstrom. I've been learning quite a bit from Greg and he said it best himself in his post, Tropics = TOUGH!, regarding system 96L (now Tropical Depression #2):
"This was one complex situation, and makes forecasting such a challenge... 96L has completely split, as the low-level center heads toward central Texas, and the mid-level center heads toward northern Mexico! This is a prime example why forecasting the tropics is extremely difficult!"
I encourage you all to follow Greg's blog at http://ldctstormchaser.blogspot.com, and be sure to keep close tabs on both The Northeast Quadrant and Eye of the Storm as I join Greg this hurricane season for the ultimate hurricane chase! You won't want to miss the footage!
And if you have not done so already, check out AccuWeather's exclusive video, Social Media's Influence on Storm Chasing, featuring both Greg and me as AccuWeather looks in-depth at how the ease of today's communication impacts your every day weather and news broadcasts.
Here we are, the last Friday in June, which means two things: we're almost one month into hurricane season and it's time for the NEQ Friday Review. Today I'll review a new insight into hurricanes that may help forecasters predict the extent of damaging winds and waves as a result of the fiercest of tropical cyclones.
Two of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) researchers, Kenneth Oslund and Philip Callahan, have developed a technique using wave height measurements from satellite altimeters to study Atlantic v.s Pacific hurricanes. They did so by combining data from multiple satellite passes over a variety of category 3 or higher storms to create composite views, or templates, of 'typical' hurricanes.
The results of their efforts support that, although equally as strong, Atlantic hurricanes are generally smaller in size than their Pacific counterparts – a likely result of higher oceanic heat content in the Pacific. In fact, storm-generated waves from Pacific hurricanes extend, on average, a distance of over 120 miles further from the storm center than those of Atlantic storms.
Interesting, the study also proved that a hurricane's strongest winds, those that create the highest waves, occur in the right front quarter of the storm – this, my friends, is also considered The Northeast Quadrant– and is one of the roots of this blog's namesake!
Check out a more in-depth look into the satellite wave data project here.
Enjoy your weekend, and remember, the 2005 hurricane season, the most active in history, didn't spin up its first hurricane until July 4 weekend. Be ready!
In the past week we’ve watched a hopeful tropical cyclone (92L) get ripped apart in the Atlantic and saw two depressions flare up in the eastern Pacific, one of which became the second named tropical storm of that basin’s hurricane season.
92L didn’t do much but cause some hype and get us even more excited for an intense Atlantic season ahead, and when things really do get going, you can bet the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron Hurricane Hunters will be on top of the storm (no pun intended). This week’s NEQ Friday Review takes a look at how this recon team makes calculated risks to help save lives and protect property.
These hurricane hunters are the only operational unit in the world flying weather reconnaissance on a routine basis. Airborne in a tropical cyclone for hours at a time, the crew consists of a pilot, co-pilot, navigator, flight meteorologist and weather-reconnaissance loadmaster. Slicing through the eyewall of a hurricane, buffeted by howling winds, blinding rain, hail, and violent updrafts and downdrafts before entering the relative calm of the storm, the team works together during their mission to continuously collect critical weather data and send it directly to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) via satellite communications.
Initial missions are flown at low levels, between 500 feet and 1,500 feet. As the storm strengthens, the hurricane hunters enter higher altitudes, where, when the storm is strong enough, they’ll make several passes through the eye.
Among a wide variety of tools hurricane hunters use and deploy on their mission, are GPS-enabled dropsondes, which they release into the eye of a storm to obtain measurements of pressure, humidity, temperature, and wind direction and speed, therefore providing a better idea of a storm’s structure and its intensity.
As dangerous (or exciting) as this seems, for most hurricane hunters, this is what they live for and are willing to die for. And guess what? It’s all for us – to improve forecasts and protect our lives and property.
As if the current environmental disaster in the Gulf is not enough, a new report published in the journal, Geophysical Research Letters, is highlighting the potential for a hurricane (or hurricanes) this season to create strong enough underwater waves to dig up and potentially sever oil pipelines that run across the ocean floor, therefore complicating the already compromising situation.
At least 31,000 miles of pipelines snake across Gulf and hurricanes have long been known to cause a range of damage to them. In the wake of Hurricane Katrina in 2005 there were 299 reports of damage to pipelines, just to be followed by 243 reports later that season from Hurricane Rita – so there is clear evidence that not only could a hurricane exacerbate the current spill, it could cause another one.
How does it happen? Historically speaking, the howling winds of hurricanes can generate strong currents along the sea floor, therefore scouring the seabed, picking up sediment from some places and piling it up in others. This scouring of sediment has the ability to create underwater horizontal mudslides that could lead to the damaged oil pipelines.
The problem does not just lie on the sea floor, however. A strong hurricane along with its gusty winds and towering waves could also topple oil rigs that line the northern Gulf. After the Deepwater Horizon rig exploded in April, it also toppled into the sea. Just something to think about…
Meanwhile, check out the above image of an oil rig beached in Dauphin Island, Alabama after Katrina!Found miles from its usual position in the Gulf, that rig in particular produced 40,000 barrels of oil and 60 million cubic feet of gas per day!
Nine years ago this past week, a mere, yet intense tropical storm battered the central coast of Texas after spending two weeks dancing across the Atlantic, into the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. The first of the 2001 season, the Tropical Storm was named Allison and it proved that storms need not be particularly strong or fast-moving to be deadly and destructive.
With hurricane season upon us this blog post looks back on Allison in an effort to keep you 'weather-ready' and 'tropical storm- and hurricane-prepared.'
Tropical Storm Allison made landfall near Houston, Texas late on June 5, 2001. After landfall the storm stalled and produced widespread flash flooding, which resulted in what became Houston's worst natural disaster in recorded history. Flash flooding continued for days, with rainfall amounts across the state peaking over 40 inches!
This long-lived storm didn't stop there! From Louisiana to southeastern Pennsylvania, Tropical Storm Allison was a major flood disaster all the way up to the Mid-Atlantic. It was not until June 18 that the remnants of the tropical storm were finally absorbed by a frontal boundary in the northern Atlantic, which ultimately led to the the cyclone's dissipation.
Throughout its entire path, Allison caused nearly $7 billion (2010 standards) in damage and 41 deaths.
Not too many tropical storm's identities, such as Allison's, go into the 'retired storm names hall-of-fame', yet "she" managed to do so! A storm for the record books, to say the least!
Sunspots may predict hurricanes as well as global warming and cooling, says a recent study conducted by Florida State University.
The study, which was presented to the American Meteorological Society and published in the scientific journal, Geophysical Research Letters, indicates the probability of hurricanes hitting the United States increases dramatically during low points of the 11-year sunspot cycle, such as we are currently experiencing.
Sunspots have long been implicated in the global climate. During periods of high sunspot activity, which occurred throughout the Medieval Warm Period, global temperatures rose. During the low points in sunspot activity, such as in the Little Ice Age, temperatures declined.
How does this affect hurricanes? Well, years with few sunspots and above-normal ocean temperatures, as is the case now, spawn a less stable atmosphere and, consequently, more hurricanes. When that happens, the differential creates more atmospheric instability and stronger storms, energizing what might otherwise remain tropical storms into hurricanes. Years with more sunspots but still above-normal ocean temperatures yield a more stable atmosphere and thus fewer hurricanes.
So here's the breakdown in numbers...
The chance of at least one hurricane hitting the United States spikes to 64 percent in the lowest sunspot years, compared to only a 25 percent chance in peak sunspot years.
Chances of three or more hurricanes hitting the United States increase from 20 percent to 40 percent in years when sunspots are in the lowest 25 percent, compared with years when they're in the highest 25 percent.
Interestingly, there are a whole bunch of predictors hurricane experts have been looking at when issuing their extreme forecasts for the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, however, sunspots was not one of them. To that extent, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is considering using sunspots cycles as a predictor in future forecasts as they continue to see more evidence.
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About The Northeast Quadrant
The Northeast Quadrant is a highly informative blog and global interactive social community for the weather obsessed, written and managed by the weather obsessed!
Near daily blog posts and news shares about ever-changing weather patterns, the evolution of dynamic storm systems, the controversy surrounding climate change; and its effects on our cities, nation and the world, The Northeast Quadrant takes you beyond the weather and brings you closer to science through its unique presentation of incredible news stories and vibrant personal experiences! With thousands of web hits directly on the blog, hundreds of Facebook fans, and Twitter followers, and an overwhelming viewer audience on YouTube, The Northeast Quadrant continues to grow!
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"Throughout all the recent Icelandic volcanic news, we at Know Your Money like to keep updated with blogs to discover their opinion of what is going on. The Northeast Quadrant offers a great deal of interest to us with regards to its intake on weather etc., and its impact on the economy... so thank you!" – Claire from United Kingdom
"I visit The Northeast Quadrant at least once a week for weather and science updates on things happening around the world. What I often find interesting is that I will read The Northeast Quadrant in the early part of the day and learn something that isn't on the news until later that night. I would be remiss if I didn't mention the fantastic pictures everyone sends in from all over!" – Staci from Union, New Jersey
"I visit The Northeast Quadrant at least 3-5 times a week. I love the pictures and funny stories, articles, quotes, etc. The blog is a good resource, it's entertaining and has valuable information. It has actually made me more interested in what is going on with the weather and why things happen." – Glen from Orem, Utah
"I find myself visiting The Northeast Quadrant more than I ever expected! I enjoy seeing Devin act so funny when he reports on various weather phenomenon. He really makes me like weather, and I particularly enjoy the photos and videos. The Northeast Quadrant has actually changed my perspective on weather and science." – Meghan from Silver Spring, Maryland
"I love The Northeast Quadrant! The information given to me is always accurate and informative. When we were listening to the news about upcoming storms this past winter, I relied on The Northeast Quadrant more than the local news. I liked watching Devin at the East River reporting and nearly getting blown away! There were always updates every few hours, and in fact I was able to prepare in advance of the storm. I also enjoy looking at and submitting personal photos pertaining to the weather!" – Robin from Edison, New Jersey
Marketing and Communications Professional; Weather Enthusiast; Recreational Storm Tracker and Reporter; and Amateur Photographer
Ever since I was a young boy I loved the weather!
There was very little that excited me more than watching The Weather Channel since its inception in 1982. Bringing weather to life was the Channel's goal, and it delivered! I remember watching the local forecast as intense lines of storms progressed towards Edison, New Jersey (where I grew up), and being called by my father to join him on the front porch as he watched the storms close in on our neighborhood. I'd run back and forth between the gusty front porch that lied beneath the darkening sky to the cool air-conditioned living room, starring at the television as I glared at the storms getting closer and closer. As the line of vibrant red's and orange's intensified, so did my interest! My obsession for weather was born, and that's where it started!
With the tools I needed at my disposal I continued to closely follow various weather phenomenon: deadly mid-western tornado outbreaks, extreme Mississippi River flooding, Hurricanes Hugo and Andrew, crippling northeastern blizzards like the '93 Superstorm, earthquakes in the Golden State, volcanoes along the Pacific Rim... you name it!
Nearly 30 years later, those who know me well would say I have not changed all that much.
