Atlantic Hurricane Season 2010

With the official close of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season still a week away, the season in pretty much all respect, is over. Sure a late-season storm or two could pop up, but the general pattern observed over the past couple weeks looks to continue, therefore furthering unfavorable conditions for development.

So... how did the season add up? The usual skeptics will say it was a bust, but in my opinion 2010 was remarkably awesome for several reasons – we reached the predicted numbers making the 2010 season one of the most active in history, and while the U.S. experienced little impact, NOAA hit the nail on the head with its early season prediction, calling for:

• 14 to 23 named storms
• 8 to 14 hurricanes
• 3 to 7 major hurricanes

Now check out the actuals:

	Average (1966–2009)	2010
Named Storms	8	19
Hurricanes	4	12
Major Hurricanes	1	5

Pretty darn amazing eh? Here's a look at the hurricanes of 2010...

Hurricane Alex



Hurricane Danielle



Hurricane Earl



Hurricane Igor



Hurricane Julia



Hurricane Karl



Hurricane Lisa



Hurricane Otto



Hurricane Paula



Hurricane Richard



Hurricane Shary



Hurricane Tomas


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Four Cat 4's...

I created a graphic this morning for The Northeast Quadrant's Facebook page WEATHER PHOTO OF THE DAY album which depicts satellite images of the four category 4's of 2010 (so far), featuring Hurricanes Danielle, Earl, Igor and Julia.

These four storms were classic Cape Verde hurricanes and while Danielle and Julia remained out to sea, Earl and Igor directly and indirectly impacted land mass. Both Igor and Julia attained category 4 strength simultaneously – an occurrence that has not happened since September 16, 1926.

I thought this was a pretty cool way of showing that no two storms are alike despite their similar characteristics!



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The Atlantic Basin Goes Silent... But Not For Long

After a slow start to a hurricane season that was hyped to be anything but slow, today marks the first full day since the development of Tropical Depression #6 on August 21 (which would later become Hurricane Danielle) that we've gone without a named storm in the Atlantic basin. Although we almost did it between September 5–6 when Hurricane Earl dissipated in the north Atlantic, we were surprised when Tropical Depression #10 (which would later become Tropical Storm Hermine) quickly spun up in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico before making landfall in extreme northeastern Mexico. This marks a total of 36 days having a named storm, the longest such period since the 2002 Atlantic hurricane season, which had remained completely active for 45 days from August 29 through October 12.

We are well into an above-average Atlantic hurricane season with 13 named storms and two unnamed tropical depressions, and there are only eight more names available for use before we'd need to break into Greek alphabet, which has only been done once in history – during the epic 2005 Atlantic hurricane season. With that said, today's break in activity leaves us on edge after yesterday's degeneration of both Lisa and Matthew, wondering where Nicole is... and will Otto follow?

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) there is an increasingly likely chance we'll see our next named storm this week as an area of convection continues to flare up in the northwest Caribbean Sea which in the short-term seems to have its eyes on the southeastern Gulf coast. Meanwhile, a very small area of convection flared overnight in the central Atlantic, but development of this system is not likely in the near-term.

There is not yet an official invest on the system in the Caribbean but by day's end I would expect to see 96L pop up! At that time the computer models should have a better handle on what the system might do – where it might go, how fast it might develop and how strong it could become. To that extent I encourage all interests in the northwest Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico to monitor possible development in this region as the break in tropical activity seems to be short-lived!

[UPDATE #1: As of 3:30 p.m. ET 09-27-10, we officially have 96L invest.]
[UPDATE #2: As of 11:00 a.m. ET 09-28-10, we officially have Tropical Depression #16.]

I'll leave you with 2010 Atlantic hurricane season scorecard, courtesy of The Weather Channel:

	Average (1966–2009)	2010
Named Storms	8	19
Hurricanes	4	7
Major Hurricanes	1	5

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More GOES-15 Photos on the Horizon

Last week NASA and NOAA reported that the third and final spacecraft in the GOES N-P Series of geostationary environmental weather satellites known as GOES-15, has successfully completed five months of testing and has been accepted into service.

The GOES fleet help NOAA forecasters track life-threatening weather and it is one of the most useful satellites, providing a constant stream of data and imagery as it observes clouds, ocean temperatures, winds, atmospheric properties, severe storm systems, fires and many other environmental parameters covering more than 50 percent of the Earth's surface.

GOES-15 has already started to deliver high-resolution photos from space (see image above of Hurricane Danielle), including the first visible and infrared images of Earth taken by its imager instrument, and the first image of the sun taken by its solar X-ray imager instrument.

GOES-15 will be placed in an on-orbit storage location at 105 degrees west longitude should one of the operational GOES satellites degrade or exhaust their fuel. It will share a parking space with GOES-14, currently in the same storage orbit. Both satellites can be made operational within 24 hours to replace an older satellite.

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The Weathervein - Episode 10

Hurricane Earl strengthened today into a category 4 storm and could strengthen further over the next day or so as it heads towards the United States east coast. In this episode of The Weathervein, Devin and Greg talk about the future track of Earl, the potential impacts along the east coast, and who might see the strongest winds and rain as Earl spirals offshore during the next few days. If you're in coastal North Carolina and/or New England, i.e. Cape Hatteras and Cape Cod, make sure you watch this!



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The Weathervein - Episode 9

Today marks the fifth anniversary of Hurricane Katrina, and in this episode of The Weathervein Greg shares his experience chasing the monstrous cyclone as it barreled into the Mississippi coastline on August 29, 2005. We'll also cover Hurricane Danielle which is racing off into the north Atlantic, while Hurricane Earl gathers strength as it approaches the northern Leeward Islands and heads towards the United States before its likely curve out to sea. Beyond Earl we still have 97L in the central Atlantic which continues to try and organize into a tropical cyclone. Will it become Fiona and could it be our next big threat? Find out here!



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The Weathervein - Episode 8

Category 2 Danielle is nearing major hurricane status while Tropical Storm Earl continues to gather strength. Meanwhile, a tropical wave designated 97L bears watching and could become TD #8 and later a tropical storm or even hurricane by the name of Fiona. Beyond these systems it's no rest for the weary in the east Atlantic as the African wave train continues to chug along! Where are these storms going and could we expect them take the same fishy route as the late Colin and current Hurricane Danielle? What does the reliable statistical guidance say? Find out here in this episode of The Weathervein!

Note: Some technical issues while recording make it difficult to hear Devin. Turn up volume for best quality.



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The Weathervein - Episode 7

Danielle strengthened into a category 2 hurricane last night, and just as quick as it intensified, it also rapidly weakened and is now once again, a tropical storm. What does the future hold for Danielle and is there a new storm brewing in her wake? Could we be looking at not one, but two hurricanes over the next few days? Find out in this episode of The Weathervein as Devin and Greg update you on the state of the tropics as well as pay tribute to Hurricane Andrew on its 18th anniversary!



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The Weathervein - Episode 6

Tropical Depression # 6 was upgraded earlier today to Tropical Storm Danielle, and during the next 48 hours the storm could become a hurricane – and beyond that possibly the first major hurricane of the season! Where is Danielle going and how strong a storm might she become? Find out in this episode of The Weathervein, as Devin and Greg touch on Danielle and what might be brewing in her wake.



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