Atlantic Hurricane Season 2010

With the official close of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season still a week away, the season in pretty much all respect, is over. Sure a late-season storm or two could pop up, but the general pattern observed over the past couple weeks looks to continue, therefore furthering unfavorable conditions for development.

So... how did the season add up? The usual skeptics will say it was a bust, but in my opinion 2010 was remarkably awesome for several reasons – we reached the predicted numbers making the 2010 season one of the most active in history, and while the U.S. experienced little impact, NOAA hit the nail on the head with its early season prediction, calling for:

• 14 to 23 named storms
• 8 to 14 hurricanes
• 3 to 7 major hurricanes

Now check out the actuals:

	Average (1966–2009)	2010
Named Storms	8	19
Hurricanes	4	12
Major Hurricanes	1	5

Pretty darn amazing eh? Here's a look at the hurricanes of 2010...

Hurricane Alex



Hurricane Danielle



Hurricane Earl



Hurricane Igor



Hurricane Julia



Hurricane Karl



Hurricane Lisa



Hurricane Otto



Hurricane Paula



Hurricane Richard



Hurricane Shary



Hurricane Tomas


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Four Cat 4's...

I created a graphic this morning for The Northeast Quadrant's Facebook page WEATHER PHOTO OF THE DAY album which depicts satellite images of the four category 4's of 2010 (so far), featuring Hurricanes Danielle, Earl, Igor and Julia.

These four storms were classic Cape Verde hurricanes and while Danielle and Julia remained out to sea, Earl and Igor directly and indirectly impacted land mass. Both Igor and Julia attained category 4 strength simultaneously – an occurrence that has not happened since September 16, 1926.

I thought this was a pretty cool way of showing that no two storms are alike despite their similar characteristics!



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The Atlantic Basin Goes Silent... But Not For Long

After a slow start to a hurricane season that was hyped to be anything but slow, today marks the first full day since the development of Tropical Depression #6 on August 21 (which would later become Hurricane Danielle) that we've gone without a named storm in the Atlantic basin. Although we almost did it between September 5–6 when Hurricane Earl dissipated in the north Atlantic, we were surprised when Tropical Depression #10 (which would later become Tropical Storm Hermine) quickly spun up in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico before making landfall in extreme northeastern Mexico. This marks a total of 36 days having a named storm, the longest such period since the 2002 Atlantic hurricane season, which had remained completely active for 45 days from August 29 through October 12.

We are well into an above-average Atlantic hurricane season with 13 named storms and two unnamed tropical depressions, and there are only eight more names available for use before we'd need to break into Greek alphabet, which has only been done once in history – during the epic 2005 Atlantic hurricane season. With that said, today's break in activity leaves us on edge after yesterday's degeneration of both Lisa and Matthew, wondering where Nicole is... and will Otto follow?

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) there is an increasingly likely chance we'll see our next named storm this week as an area of convection continues to flare up in the northwest Caribbean Sea which in the short-term seems to have its eyes on the southeastern Gulf coast. Meanwhile, a very small area of convection flared overnight in the central Atlantic, but development of this system is not likely in the near-term.

There is not yet an official invest on the system in the Caribbean but by day's end I would expect to see 96L pop up! At that time the computer models should have a better handle on what the system might do – where it might go, how fast it might develop and how strong it could become. To that extent I encourage all interests in the northwest Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico to monitor possible development in this region as the break in tropical activity seems to be short-lived!

[UPDATE #1: As of 3:30 p.m. ET 09-27-10, we officially have 96L invest.]
[UPDATE #2: As of 11:00 a.m. ET 09-28-10, we officially have Tropical Depression #16.]

I'll leave you with 2010 Atlantic hurricane season scorecard, courtesy of The Weather Channel:

	Average (1966–2009)	2010
Named Storms	8	19
Hurricanes	4	7
Major Hurricanes	1	5

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The Weathervein - Episode 12

Tropical Storm Hermine is spinning up and strengthening in the southwest Gulf of Mexico and could become a minimal hurricane prior to landfall in extreme northeast Mexico or far southeast Texas late tonight. Meanwhile, the low pressure in the central Atlantic associated with former Tropical Storm Gaston will soon be approaching the northern Leeward Islands and it's future track and intensity remain questionable. Find out what's going on with these systems, what else might be brewing in the Atlantic, and hear a recap of Devin's Hurricane [Tropical Storm] Earl chase in Cape Cod, Massachusetts in this episode of The Weathervein!



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The Weathervein - Episode 11

Hurricane Earl is about to make his presence known on the east coast! How much of an impact will Earl bring? Well, that is in his hands now, but if you are in the Outer Banks of North Carolina or Cape Cod, Massachusetts and outlying islands, you can expect to feel the brunt of this hurricane as it inches near and passes dangerously close offshore. Find out in this episode of The Weathervein exactly who will be affected by Earl, what the conditions could be like in your area, and what you need to do to prepare NOW!



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The Weathervein - Episode 10

Hurricane Earl strengthened today into a category 4 storm and could strengthen further over the next day or so as it heads towards the United States east coast. In this episode of The Weathervein, Devin and Greg talk about the future track of Earl, the potential impacts along the east coast, and who might see the strongest winds and rain as Earl spirals offshore during the next few days. If you're in coastal North Carolina and/or New England, i.e. Cape Hatteras and Cape Cod, make sure you watch this!



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The Weathervein - Episode 9

Today marks the fifth anniversary of Hurricane Katrina, and in this episode of The Weathervein Greg shares his experience chasing the monstrous cyclone as it barreled into the Mississippi coastline on August 29, 2005. We'll also cover Hurricane Danielle which is racing off into the north Atlantic, while Hurricane Earl gathers strength as it approaches the northern Leeward Islands and heads towards the United States before its likely curve out to sea. Beyond Earl we still have 97L in the central Atlantic which continues to try and organize into a tropical cyclone. Will it become Fiona and could it be our next big threat? Find out here!



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The Weathervein - Episode 8

Category 2 Danielle is nearing major hurricane status while Tropical Storm Earl continues to gather strength. Meanwhile, a tropical wave designated 97L bears watching and could become TD #8 and later a tropical storm or even hurricane by the name of Fiona. Beyond these systems it's no rest for the weary in the east Atlantic as the African wave train continues to chug along! Where are these storms going and could we expect them take the same fishy route as the late Colin and current Hurricane Danielle? What does the reliable statistical guidance say? Find out here in this episode of The Weathervein!

Note: Some technical issues while recording make it difficult to hear Devin. Turn up volume for best quality.



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