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As mentioned the other day we are well into an above-average Atlantic hurricane season, now recording 14 named storms from Alex to Nicole, and two unnamed tropical depressions. That leaves us with just seven more names available until we would need to cut into the Greek alphabet – which has only been done once in history – in 2005. Given statistical guidance, it could happen again.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), 27.3 percent of all tropical storms and 26.7 percent of all hurricanes since 1851 have formed between today, October 1 and December 31, (despite the seasons official close on November 30), and in fact, October rivals August when it comes to the number of tropical storms that form in waters that are still warm, such as the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea.
In 2005, a season that featured similar favorable tropical development conditions as the 2010 season, nine storms were recorded in October alone, and an additional four storm developed through the turn of the new year (2005– 2006). Even though there are no indications a situation like that would evolve during the next few months, it would not take much – just a gradual storm here and there – to easily advance us through the remainder of the alphabet. But that said, what happened to impact? This season was dubbed the season of impact, not the season of numbers?
It only takes one, so what imminently lies ahead? The NHC is now tracking a new invest area called 97L which has a 40 percent chance of development over the next couple days. Should it develop it would become Tropical Depression #16 and/or Tropical Storm and/or Hurricane Otto. This is a system that in the near-term the Leeward islands of the Caribbean will want to watch.
Regarding the Gulf of Mexico, this area is blocked for development, at least for now. The Caribbean continues to produce a lot of disorganized convection left behind from Matthew and Nicole, but nothing appears to be boiling into a tropical cyclone (yet).
Now in related news I'd like to provide you a link to NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracking Tool which allows users to search by U.S. zip code, state or county, storm name or year, or latitude and longitude points to plot some of the greatest storm tracks from year's past. The site includes tropical cyclone data and information on coastal county hurricane strikes through 2009. It also features a searchable database of population changes versus hurricane strikes for U.S. coastal counties from 1900 to 2000 and includes detailed reports on the life history and effects of U.S. tropical cyclones since 1958. Check it out here.
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After a slow start to a hurricane season that was hyped to be anything but slow, today marks the first full day since the development of Tropical Depression #6 on August 21 (which would later become Hurricane Danielle) that we've gone without a named storm in the Atlantic basin. Although we almost did it between September 5–6 when Hurricane Earl dissipated in the north Atlantic, we were surprised when Tropical Depression #10 (which would later become Tropical Storm Hermine) quickly spun up in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico before making landfall in extreme northeastern Mexico. This marks a total of 36 days having a named storm, the longest such period since the 2002 Atlantic hurricane season, which had remained completely active for 45 days from August 29 through October 12.
We are well into an above-average Atlantic hurricane season with 13 named storms and two unnamed tropical depressions, and there are only eight more names available for use before we'd need to break into Greek alphabet, which has only been done once in history – during the epic 2005 Atlantic hurricane season. With that said, today's break in activity leaves us on edge after yesterday's degeneration of both Lisa and Matthew, wondering where Nicole is... and will Otto follow?
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) there is an increasingly likely chance we'll see our next named storm this week as an area of convection continues to flare up in the northwest Caribbean Sea which in the short-term seems to have its eyes on the southeastern Gulf coast. Meanwhile, a very small area of convection flared overnight in the central Atlantic, but development of this system is not likely in the near-term.
There is not yet an official invest on the system in the Caribbean but by day's end I would expect to see 96L pop up! At that time the computer models should have a better handle on what the system might do – where it might go, how fast it might develop and how strong it could become. To that extent I encourage all interests in the northwest Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico to monitor possible development in this region as the break in tropical activity seems to be short-lived!
[UPDATE #1: As of 3:30 p.m. ET 09-27-10, we officially have 96L invest.]
[UPDATE #2: As of 11:00 a.m. ET 09-28-10, we officially have Tropical Depression #16.]
I'll leave you with 2010 Atlantic hurricane season scorecard, courtesy of The Weather Channel:
| Average
(1966–2009)
| 2010
|
Named Storms
| 8
| 19
|
Hurricanes
| 4
| 7
|
Major Hurricanes
| 1
| 5
|
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A recently published article in the Brownsville (Texas) Herald yielded evidence to the inexact science of tropical weather forecasting. The article caught my attention because tropical forecasts are often times frustrating for many as they are probably one of the most erratic predictions meteorologists deal with, and because the story comes from a news outlet in a region that recently dealt with the aberrant forecasts of Hurricane Alex.
Despite the fact that tropical forecasting has not changed much in the last 20 years, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is improving its ability to forecast storm intensity and tracks through its Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP). The Project aims to reduce the average errors of hurricane track and intensity forecasts by 20 percent within five years and 50 percent in 10 years with a forecast period out to seven days. The NHC will do so through the development of advanced hurricane models, data assimilation systems and through the optimal use of real observations.
Using regional data in the Brownsville area, the NHC is now studying six tropical cyclones — Tropical Storm Beryl in 2000, Tropical Storm Bertha in 2002, Hurricane Erika in 2003, Hurricane Emily in 2005, Hurricane Dolly in 2008 and last week’s Hurricane Alex.
Speaking of difficult forecasting, what better time than now to call attention to one of my most valued tropical forecasting and analysis resources – a blog called Eye of the Storm, written by meteorologist and storm chaser, Greg Nordstrom. I've been learning quite a bit from Greg and he said it best himself in his post, Tropics = TOUGH!, regarding system 96L (now Tropical Depression #2):
"This was one complex situation, and makes forecasting such a challenge... 96L has completely split, as the low-level center heads toward central Texas, and the mid-level center heads toward northern Mexico! This is a prime example why forecasting the tropics is extremely difficult!"
I encourage you all to follow Greg's blog at http://ldctstormchaser.blogspot.com, and be sure to keep close tabs on both The Northeast Quadrant and Eye of the Storm as I join Greg this hurricane season for the ultimate hurricane chase! You won't want to miss the footage!
And if you have not done so already, check out AccuWeather's exclusive video, Social Media's Influence on Storm Chasing, featuring both Greg and me as AccuWeather looks in-depth at how the ease of today's communication impacts your every day weather and news broadcasts.
Enjoy!
Hurricane season is here and with an extremely active several months expected ahead, you can be sure social media will play a huge role in disseminating critical storm-related information.
Social media has as history of helping people find friends and relatives after several high-profile disasters, such as the tsunami that struck Indonesia in 2004 and Hurricane Katrina in 2005. And now in 2010, as millions upon millions of U.S. residents and tourists will at some point this season likely be in harms way as a tropical cyclone barrels itself towards our coastlines, everyone from emergency managers and hurricane forecasters, to traditional media and bloggers (such as The Northeast Quadrant), will use these means to increase their reach.
In fact, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) plans, at the very least, to create a Facebook page by the end of this month. For those who sign up, you can expect to receive up-to-the-minute storm advisories, watches and warnings, as well as evacuation orders and safety tips. The page will also serve as a portal to post photos, videos and storm reports.
So what about Twitter? For the time being, the NHC says it is steering clear of it because the 140-character limit is not enough space to provide enough information (don't we all know that is true)!
Related blog spot: Severe Weather with a Chance of Tweets!
Weakening El Niño may not protect coastlines and may support the formation of more frequent and stronger storms!
As we move closer to the start of the 2010 hurricane season for the Atlantic Basin (i.e., Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico), expert predictors are getting ready to broadcast their long-range forecasts.
One of the most eagerly anticipated forecasts comes each year on April 7 from the notable Dr. William Gray of Colorado State University's Tropical Meteorology Project, as well as the official prediction from NOAA and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in May. Both of these outlets adjust their predictions as the season nears and progresses.
Today, however, AccuWeather's chief long-range meteorologist and expert hurricane forecaster, Joe Bastardi, who I hope to interview someday soon, issued his official forecast for the 2010 season. Bastardi says, "This year has the chance to be an extreme season!"
Bastardi is calling for 16 to 18 tropical storms in total, 15 of which would be in the western Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico and therefore a threat to land. He is forecasting seven landfalls. Five will be hurricanes and two or three of the hurricanes will be major landfalls for the United States.
Why the increased activity? As the June 1 - November 30 hurricane season approaches, a rapidly weakening El Niño, weakening trade winds which reduce the amount of dry air injected into the tropics from Africa, warmer ocean temperatures in the typical Atlantic tropical breeding grounds, and higher humidity levels which provides additional upward motion in the air and fuels tropical storm development, all will be significant factors for tropical cyclone development.
Stay tuned for Dr. Gray's prediction next month and the NOAA/NHC prediction in May. This could certainly be an interesting hurricane season. And don't forget, this season will feature a brand new Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale!
As mentioned the other day we are well into an above-average Atlantic hurricane season, now recording 14 named storms from Alex to Nicole, and two unnamed tropical depressions. That leaves us with just seven more names available until we would need to cut into the Greek alphabet – which has only been done once in history – in 2005. Given statistical guidance, it could happen again.
