In the previous blog post you will find my predictions for the snowstorm that just concluded in the New York City area. While at this time a blizzard still rages in New England, especially for the cities of Providence, Rhode Island and Boston, Massachusetts, I felt confident creating this final snowfall total map, which reflects general accumulations reported throughout the northeast, thus far.
In my opinion, I did pretty darn well with my forecast. Compare this final map to those below!
This storm deposited a total of 10.2" of fresh snow here in Gramercy Park, New York City. With the snow pack that was already on the ground, that brings the current total snow pack to about 16". The season to date snowfall is now at about 33", and it is only the second week of January! The seasonal average snowfall for New York City is around 25" so we are already in another well-above average winter season!
Finally, check out this radar image during the height of the storm last night! Just incredible!
For those of you that have been following The Northeast Quadrant on Facebook, you will notice tons of coverage on the last two winter storms.
I've taken pride in really getting a handle on the computer models that forecast these storms, as well as air patterns and historical happenings associated with big northeast snowfalls. That said, I pretty much nailed the last blizzard forecast, so I thought hey, let me try again!
As another major snowstorm is on tap for the northeast, especially from Philadelphia to Boston, here is my thinking, which I am actually quite confident on...
4:30 pm UPDATE:
Map: *Color legend is below.
By location: Eastern Long Island through Providence and Boston: 12-18"+ New York City metro north and east: 8-12"+ New York City metro south: 5-8"+ Philly metro to central NJ coast: 3-6"+ North of Baltimore to south Philly metro: 2-4"+ Baltimore metro: 1-3"+ DC metro: generally less than 1"
While this update points to somewhat specific locations receiving somewhat specific amounts, each amount is followed by a "+" -- indicating the fate is in the development of the storm and the convective banding it produces.
As of 1:30 pm:
Map:
Legend: Working from the green area that includes Boston as the having the highest snowfall totals, to the yellow area in Pennsylvania and New York state having the lowest, you can see where 'I think' the greatest accumulations will 'range,' and within that 'range' the totals 'could' vary greatly.
By location: Hartford to Boston: 18"+ New York City metro: 12"+ Philly to NYC metro and the south central NJ coast: 6-12" North of Baltimore to southwest of the Philly metro: 4-8" Baltimore metro: 2-4" DC metro: generally less than 2"
If 2010 is any indication of the diversity of seasons the northeast United States experiences, I don’t know what is! But wait, maybe 2010 isn’t a good example – it’s been a year of weather extremes and records, especially for cities like New York. But nonetheless, it’s made for an interesting first seven months of the year and this week’s NEQ Friday Review, takes a look back at the Big Apple’s weather (since that is where I’m blogging from) from January through July – through my eyes, as a storm watcher, blogger and photographer.
After a record-breaking blizzard in late December, New York kicked off the year with a significant snowstorm along Long Island, which I dubbed the “Palindrome Nor’easter,” having occurred on 01-02-2010 (which backwards is configured the same).
After a downright cold, nasty start to January, the polar jet retreated back into Canada, thus allowing a nice mid-January thaw, embraced by many New Yorkers as depicted in this video blog post.
The thaw wouldn’t last long as February approached. The month was literally snow and blizzard extreme! Cities from Washington, DC to New York, including Baltimore, Philadelphia and Wilmington, all saw record-breaking snowfall.
By Wednesday, February 3 snowstorm extravaganza was upon us and the next several weeks looked ominous. As the first week of the month progressed it became more evident a blizzard was to take shape and surely it did just that. But it didn’t stop there! As we moved into the second week of the month another blizzard took shape, smacking the Big Apple with heavy snow and wind, and the storm was epic! However, only a couple weeks would go by before the big daddy “Snowicane” would for nearly three days straight deliver a historical blow to the NYC-metro! Keep reading…
It all came to fruition on February 24 as computer models defined a tricky forecast ahead. A complex storm was developing and NYC sat on the edge of what could be a heavy rain or a crippling blizzard event. Well, by just a few miles (yes, literally only a few) we were in the snow... and boy did it snow! While the city was enduring a raging snowstorm, Nassau County, Long Island was experiencing a heavy, windswept rain spiraling in from the Atlantic – the Snowicane had begun, and just 12 hours into the storm the expected snowfall totals were upped by the hour. The next day the snow continued and with 17” of snow on the ground in 24 hours, we were only half way into the storm, but records were already starting to break! By the end of the storm it proved historic, and as we rounded out the month, it was among the top four greatest snowfalls NYC ever recorded!
March was no quieter as it came in like a lion when NASA’s Terra satellite captured this image of early spring snow cover in the northeast! The first of somewhat warmer-core nor’easters moved onshore near NYC on March 11, which I dubbed the “Daylight Savings Nor'easter.” The storm was so fierce that the constant easterly fetch off the Atlantic brought the ocean onshore and raised wave heights to near 20 feet, while coastal communities experienced damaging hurricane force winds knocking down power and flooding many. And to add to the misery, another major coastal deluge took shape towards the end of the month as the March lion still roared.
May and June were relatively calm months, storm-wise... and boy did we deserve it. But by the time the period closed out, more record warmth was recorded and the entire year had thus far been classified as the hottest in history!
July began on a hot note too – a very, very, very hot note! Beginning 4th of July weekend and continuing through the first full week of the month, a massive and oppressive heat wave literally began choking the mid-Atlantic and northeast. By Tuesday, July 6, high temperatures of up to 103 degrees in the New York City area broke or tied ALL records set back in 1999 at ALL National Weather Service climate reporting sites. The Big Apple was literally baking, sizzling and frying, and by Thursday, July 8 the heat wave began winding down, and in its wake shattering over 300 daily weather records across the northeast.
Well, there you have it! An ‘extreme’ly record setting 2010 for not only NYC, but for the entire northeast and mid-Atlantic. What does the rest of the year hold? Time will tell but you can bet more extremes are in store for someone, someplace!
You didn't think this week's NEQ Friday Review would be about anything other than this past week's heatwave... did you?!
As pretty much the entire world is aware by now, a massive heatwave engulfed the northeast and mid-Atlantic United States this past week. The heatwave generally kicked off on Sunday, July 4 and it was not until yesterday, Thursday, July 8 that it began winding down. In its wake the heatwave shattered and tied an enormous amount of daily temperature records, including 33 on Monday, 131 on Tuesday and as many as 151 on Wednesday.
Sure heatwaves have plagued the region in years past, and even in 2010 alone some U.S. cities have already experienced similar waves, but this one was pretty special, and dare I say, could actually be repeated again before the summer is over. Why so special? Just check out these readings...
Sun. 7/4
Mon. 7/5
Tues. 7/6
Wed. 7/7
Thurs. 7/8
New York (Central Park)
96°
99°
103°
100°
88°
Newark (EWR Airport)
101°
102°
103°
101°
86°
Philadelphia (PHL Airport)
96°
98°
102°
103°
89°
Baltimore (BWI Airport)
98°
100°
105°
101°
93°
Washington, DC (DCA Airport)
94°
99°
102°
102°
93°
What a week it was! A cool down is in store this weekend but temperatures are still expected to be hot by many standards. Expect lots of upper 80s and lower 90s... but hey, I guess it'll feel better than it did this past week. And remember, with such a hot, dry air mass in place, the next big concern for the remainder of the summer could be drought.
2010 is definitely shaping up to be record-breaking and memorable by many weather extremes!
The mid-Atlantic and northeast United States is well into the fourth day of a historic heatwave and yesterday, Tuesday, July 6, high temperatures of up to 103 degrees in the New York City area broke or tied ALL records set back in 1999 at ALL National Weather Service (NWS) climate reporting sites: JFK (JFK Airport - Queens), LGA (La Guardia Airport - Queens), EWR (Newark Airport - Newark, New Jersey), Central Park (Manhattan), Islip (Long Island) and Bridgeport (Connecticut).
For many in the New York metro region, the day was marked as the hottest since August 9, 2001. Ironically, the day was also the anniversary of the hottest temperature ever recorded, which was 106 back in 1936.
Last night I took to the streets and snapped these photos of the hot, summer sun baking, sizzling and frying the Big Apple; and recorded the video blog post below, which further describes the massive heatwave and its far-reaching effects.
The mid-Atlantic and northeast United States is well into the third day of a historic heatwave that is now rivaling and could end up breaking records set in the two memorable heat waves during the summer of 2006. That summer in New York City alone, 46 people died when the furnace went on full blast in late July and early August.
So far during July 2010 in the Big Apple, the first six days have averaged six degrees hotter than the same period last year. The conditions have prompted the National Weather Service to issue heat advisories and excessive heat warnings, as well as air quality alerts for not only the megalopolis, but cities from the Ohio Valley to North Carolina, and northward to southern New England and upstate New York. And guess what? The heat is expected to last all week, with highs reaching the mid-90s to 100+ through Friday. For some cities that would mark one full week with 90+ degree heat.
So what is causing the extreme heat wave? A heat wave occurs when an immense dome of high pressure builds over an area, causing air in the upper levels of the 'dome' (or atmosphere) to be pulled toward the ground, where it becomes compressed and increases in temperature as it expands. This high concentration of pressure makes it difficult for other weather systems to move into the area, which is why a heat wave can last for several days or weeks, such as we are seeing right now. The longer the system stays in an area, the hotter the area becomes, and because the high-pressure system also prevents clouds from entering the region, sunlight can become punishing, heating up the system even more. And what makes it even worse – the pressure causes winds to become faint to nonexistent, further suppressing any relief from the heat.
So how will you beat the heat? Here's some tips to help you try!
Drink more fluids, regardless of your activity level, and don't wait until you're thirsty to drink
Stay indoors and, if at all possible, stay in an air-conditioned place
Wear lightweight, light-colored, loose-fitting clothing, and be sure to dress for the weather
Limit your outdoor activity to morning and evening hours
Cut down on exercise during the day, and if you must exercise, drink two to four glasses of cool, nonalcoholic fluids each hour
Protect yourself from the sun by wearing a wide-brimmed hat – an accessory which should also keep you cooler
And remember, CHECK ON THE ELDERLY and DO NOT KEEP YOUR PETS IN THE CAR
These tips are wise and just a few ways to keep comfortable during this rather oppressive time. But get used to it – it's only the first week of July. We have the rest of the month and all of August ahead of us. Climatologically speaking, the hottest time of the year typically runs from July 20 through August 10.
This past weekend featured two solid days of severe weather in the northeast accompanied by torrential rains and scattered violent storms containing damaging winds, hail and even funnel clouds. That's right... funnel clouds! Tornado watches were posted for a good part of the day Saturday for New England, and those watches extended southwards into the mid-Atlantic on Sunday. But while tornado activity was heightened in the cornfields of the rural midwest this past weekend, not too much actually materialized for the hilly terrain of the northeast or along the city-sprawling I-95 corridor.
OK, why the descriptive detail? Well, I've been reading several blogs about the subject this weekend and even this morning, and I want to set something straight about the myth (yes, it's a myth) that tornadoes don't occur, or are hard to form, in both mountainous terrain and cities alike.
While topography does influence how often tornadoes form, other stronger atmospheric processes determine where and when tornadoes form, meaning even those is rugged mountainous terrain are at risk. Storm systems that generate tornadoes over the midwest often rely on large amounts of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and high quantities of atmospheric energy which aren’t always available once systems cross the Appalachians. However, if those systems remain intact, these areas, such as the Northeastern United States, are equally susceptible.
Tornadoes in cities? I can easily recall several U.S. cities being hit by a tornado in the last decade or so... Oklahoma City, Fort Worth, St. Louis, Miami... even Salt Lake (both urban and mountainous)! But in the northeast? Not so much. While it is possible, the atmospheric dynamics explained above typically do not support the development of tornadoes reaching cities like New York, Boston and Philadelphia, per se. However, the fact is tornadoes have a long history of hitting big cities and when they do, they usually cause a great amount of damage because a lot more debris is generated.
In conclusion, the severe weather threat is long gone now and the weather is gorgeous! Sadly, residents in Ohio and Michigan were not so lucky as tornadoes there as strong as EF-3, have caused extensive damage and loss of life.
Mild days and cool nights are the rule this week in the northeast... enjoy it!
A recently released study by global warming education group Clean Air-Cool Planet and the University of New Hampshire (UNH) indicates there may be a link between global warming and the extreme precipitation events that continue to plague the Northeast.
The study examined 60 years (1948 to 2007) of rainfall records from 219 National Weather Service reporting stations in nine Northeastern states (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Vermont) and found that storms that produce an inch or more of precipitation in a day — a threshold the recent storms far surpassed — are coming more frequently.
According to the UNH, the study's results are consistent with what could be expected in a world warmed by greenhouse gases, though it would take more sophisticated studies to cement an official global warming link.
However, what is more certain is the potential economic impact should the 60-year trend continue. It would require billions of dollars in infrastructure investments to manage the impacts of these extreme weather events, i.e. improvements in roads, bridges, sewers and culverts.
There's only one voice I trust when it comes to Northeast winter weather! Here's a recap of my interview with Paul Kocin.
I recently had the opportunity to go one-on-one with meteorologist and winter weather expert, Paul Kocin. Paul, a Long Island native and resident of The Northeast Quadrant, is unquestionably the authority when it comes to forecasting Nor’easters and analyzing their impact throughout the region.
Paul’s professional experience ranges from NASA’s Spaceflight Center to the National Weather Service, and from The Weather Channel to NOAA, where he now works for their Hydrometeorological Prediction Center, and focuses on Alaska weather.
I became a fan of Paul from about the late 90s through the mid 2000s when he worked for The Weather Channel as an on-air personality. Much like me, Paul was interested in weather from a very early age. Growing up in the Tri-State region he faced many exciting weather events – from notable winter storms where he found his niche, to glancing blows by hurricanes and other fascinating meteorological phenomenon that plagued the area.
In speaking with Paul I was able to feed my passion for reminiscing about major winter weather events. We shared stories of major Nor’easters we both personally faced. From the Blizzard of 78 (the year I was born), to a quiet pattern in the 80s, and from an active 90s featuring two blockbuster record-breaking snowstorms, to the super-sized blizzards of this past winter, Paul and I sounded off back and forth about how these winter weather events affected us.
Paul co-developed the Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale (NESIS), which categorizes significant Northeast United States snowfalls from category 1 (notable) to category 5 (extreme). We spoke briefly about his role in developing the scale, as well as him authoring the two-volume book, “Northeast Snowstorms," available through the American Meteorological Society; and how this year’s snowstorms have him working on a third volume tentatively called "Northeast snowstorms: The 21st Century." But what I was really curious about is how the recent snowstorms of this past winter measured up on the NESIS.
I learned that in all history only two storms ever reached category 5 status – and I was happy to find out that I personally lived through both: the Superstorm of 1993 and the Blizzard of 1996. As far as this past year is concerned, it turns out the highest-ranking snowstorm was the strong category 3 record-breaking blizzard for New York City on February 23 – 28. Behind that was the mid-Atlantic blizzard on February 4 – 7, which also ranked category 3, but fell somewhat weaker in that category. The second blizzard that month, which stretched from Virginia to Massachusetts on February 9 – 11, ranked category 2. The December 18 – 21 blizzard, the first major snowstorm of the season, ranked category 3.
So what is the likelihood that an epic winter season like the one we just experienced is repeated? Well, while the chances are not likely, Paul says, “One should be more optimistic!” Looking back in history the past ten years have featured some of the biggest snowstorms for the northeast, and this past winter featured some of the biggest ever. “No matter how you look at it, we are in a general period of more spectacular winter storms!”
Paul ended, “The storm is always better somewhere else, for someone else. It just so happens that this year that someone else was us, and the somewhere else was in our own backyard!”
The Mid-Atlantic and Northeast is once again taking a beating from a major coastal storm! The storm, which I am now dubbing the "Daylight Savings Nor'easter," began Friday morning and promises to deliver wind and rain through Monday. That's right, rain! Not snow this time! Temperatures have warmed since the last Nor'easter (the Snowicane) and much of the area is now looking at a heavy, wind-driven rain, as opposed to the heavy blizzard snows that have dumped record snowfall across the area since late last year.
This afternoon we entered the peak of the Daylight Savings Nor'easter and in true form I headed right out in it and battled torrential flooding rains, near hurricane force winds and sub-freezing wind chills to bring you this report!
As of 7:00 p.m. the storm continues to rage. The constant easterly fetch off the Atlantic is bringing the ocean onshore and raising wave heights to near 20 feet. Coastal communities are experiencing damaging hurricane force winds and the heavy rains continue to push inland across New Jersey, New York and Pennsylvania. The wind is knocking down power lines across the area and the rain associated with this storm, combined with the melting snow pack, is leading to hazardous flood conditions.
Stay tuned to your local news outlets on the latest effects regarding the Daylight Savings Nor'easter. Oh, and speaking of daylight savings, if you still have power don't forget to set your clocks forward one hour before you hit the sack tonight!
The record snow stopped falling overnight and today I ventured out around the city to run some errands. While doing so I snapped some photos. It's amazing how well New York cleans up after a major snowstorm! Here are just a few of the photos I took today.
Late this afternoon I decided to go back out into the Snowicane and snap some more photos, and of all those that I took, I think there are two that perfectly capture the intensity of the storm. Check out these shots looking crosstown from the east side to the west side of Manhattan (looking down 42nd Street).
As I made my way home and settled in to thaw my frozen toes and fingers I captured this clip on the local news. This, I think, really provides great detail on the awesome scope of the Snowicane, which continues to dump heavy snow squalls in New York City and points north and east.
It will be interesting to see where we end up as far as total snowfall for the city. As I blogged about earlier, this storm broke records! Will we make the top 3 heaviest snowfalls ever recorded in New York? We are extremely close and I will provide updates to the previous blog post, "Snowicane Breaks Records in NYC!" so check back often!
I wanted to also say thank you to everyone who is following along as I experience this epic winter weather event, which has clearly exceeded all expectations and is now one for the history books! It's been an amazing couple days and I am glad I can share it with you!
UPDATE 11:00 A.M. (2-27-10)The National Weather Service in New York City has updated its record books once again! Yesterday's snowfall also broke daily records for that day particularly. 11.5 inches of snow fell yesterday alone, breaking the old record of 8.4 inches set in 1991.
UPDATE 6:00 P.M. At 21 inches this snowstorm is now tied for the third heaviest for New York City. Below is where we stand among the top 3.
1. 26.9 inches in February 2006 2. 26.4 inches in February 1947 3. 21 inches in March 1888 AND TODAY, February 26, 2010
Original post:
As of 2:00 p.m. 20.8 inches of snow was reported at Central Park, making the Snowicane the fourth heaviest (so far) snowstorm on record! The all time record stands at 26.9" on February 11 – 12, 2006. We will continue to climb towards that over the next several hours and through the evening – possibly exceeding it by tomorrow morning. Even if we do not exceed the all time heaviest snowfall, as the snow does continue to fall, the Snowicane may very well at least slip into the top three!
Speaking of records, I’ve got another one for you! Regardless how much more snow falls from this storm, the Snowicane has allowed the previous monthly record snowfall of 30.5 inches in March 1896 to be squashed! February 2010 is now the all time snowiest month ever recorded with a record 35.9 inches (so far)!
As snow continues to fall these figures and records will be updated!
Shortly after I hit the publish button on the blog last night I did my normal 10-minute check out the window to see how the snowfall was progressing... and what a sight I saw! Within minutes the snowfall literally doubled in intensity. I could hardly see out my window and the street went from slushy to snowrific in the blink of an eye. And honestly, it has not let up much since.
The snow continues to come down this morning at quite an impressive rate. I think at its peak overnight we reached somewhere near 3 inches per hour, accompanied by gusty winds near 50 mph. Oh and did I mention the thunder? Yes, there was even thundersnow, which is an extremely rare occurrence and something that usually only takes place within the most intense Nor'easters. This definitely classifies!
So as I was saying the snow has not let up all that much. I am looking out the window as I type this and it's still coming down at about an inch per hour, sometimes heavier.
Latest snowfall totals as of 8 a.m. in Central Park are 17 inches! We have at least another 24 hours to go until the steady accumulating snow subsides, just to be replaced with squally snow showers, which in themselves could produce heavy, accumulating snow in bursts.
Accordingly, the National Weather Service once again upgraded the snowfall projections which now stand at 18 to 24 inches for the immediate New York City area. Points north and west could see as much as 30 inches. Slightly less as you move south of the city into New Jersey and east of the city onto Long Island.
In true form I could hardly sleep last night and woke up today at the crack of dawn to take some shots of the city in the snow! Here they are, along with a video I took in Madison Square Park. I hope you enjoy them!
It's after 9:00 p.m. and the snow has been falling for over twelve hours now. The snow comes in bands and waves. No matter how heavy or light the precipitation across the tri-state area has been, it has not stopped since pre-dawn. Many areas are already reporting over a foot of snow, while some are still seeing rain. However, even those areas are finally beginning their transition to snow.
For snow lovers like myself it's quite interesting, and somewhat depressing, living in New York City during storms like this... because when I look outside my window on a busy midtown street, all I see is wet roads. No snow covered grass. Just damp concrete. Not much accumulation. Meanwhile uptown just thirty blocks at Central Park there is clear evidence that we are well on our way to a foot of snow in the city. The trees and park benches are plastered white. The park is literally buried. But not my street -- the heat from the cars, the subway, the foot traffic, the buildings -- it all melts my snow. And it drives me absolutely insane!
I am tired of running to the park each time it snows just to see how much there is. But even that hope is shot right now because the authorities are warning people to stay off the streets and out of the parks. The weight of the heavy, wet snow is too much for the trees and power lines to handle. They are falling left and right, and today in Manhattan someone was killed by falling trees. In fact, a tree even fell on a city bus. Trees are also lining the streets in the Upper East Side. As you can imagine its quite dangerous out there.
So as the night progresses so will the heavy snow and wind. By morning we can expect double the amount of snow we have already seen, and additional accumulations are expected through the day tomorrow. There are some hints that the storm will not completely move away from the area until Sunday, but right now we are thinking Saturday morning... which is why the Winter Storm Warnings have been extended until that time.
Overall, the immediate New York City areas accumulation projections have been raised to 12 to 18 inches. On western long island 6 to 12 inches can be expected and on the eastern part of the island about 3 to 6 inches and 1 to 3 inches respectively. Moving westward from the city, however, we are looking at accumulations approaching two feet, if not more in the higher elevations.
Winds are kicking up and will continue through Friday, sometimes gusting near hurricane force.
All in all, the Snowicane continues. I just wish I could see more of it outside my window.
Well, its been snowing since about 7 a.m. in New York City. A heavy, wet snow that started as rain in the early morning hours will continue through the rest of today, into tonight and through the day Friday (some indications are that we won't be out of it until Sunday -- but more on that later).
The storm should peak in intensity during the overnight tonight when snow will fall at rates greater than 2 inches per hour at times, accompanied by wind gusts approaching 60 mph in some areas. This combination will lead to white out conditions, downed trees and power outages. But not for all! That's right... just miles away in Nassau County on Long Island, heavy rain and wind has been reported throughout the day, with over an inch already on the south shore.
Such a tight gradient between who gets heavy snow and who gets heavy rain has proved challenging for weather forecasters -- but it was expected. Check out the rain/snow line on this radar image today at 2:30. It has not moved much all day.
This should prove interesting for people commuting to and from the city this evening. You could go from dangerous, blizzard-like conditions to blinding rain within minutes. Be careful out there!
We at The Northeast Quadrant are not card-carrying meteorologists but we do know a lot about weather. And that starts with a basic understating of forecasting. We know that in situations like today when everyone’s eyes and ears are set on an impending winter storm that has yet to form, that we must look at the computer models, and only base our knowledge of the situation on what they are telling us.
I hear the buzz around the office today and I am sure it’s the same for all who commute into Manhattan – “what is in store for me tomorrow? And Friday?”
In my office we have people commuting from Long Island, New Jersey, upstate New York. Even from Pennsylvania. Well, the answer for all of them is different. It is absolutely guaranteed that tomorrow morning each one of us will wake up with another story when we look outside. And another story when we get to work, if we get to work.
If you turn on any weather station or throw any weather-related URL in your address bar you will probably hear a variety of forecasts, all which draw no real conclusion. At least not the conclusion you want to hear, such as:
• It’s going to be a close call for New York City • The rain snow/line will be very close to New York • New York and points north and west will likely see all snow • Long Island and coastal Connecticut will likely see a changeover to rain • New York may see 6-12 inches • New York May see a foot plus • New York may see several inches of snow, then rain, then more snow • New Jersey will see over 2 feet of snow in the higher elevations
How frustrating, right? The deal is… this storm is so amazingly complex that just a few miles will make a difference in precipitation type and amount. Literally speaking, this time tomorrow there may be a raging snowstorm in downtown New York City, while just several miles away in Nassau County, Long Island there may be a heavy, windswept rain. Same holds true for areas in New Jersey. While there may be a blizzard of epic proportions in the northwestern parts of the state, the coastal areas may see a mix of rain and snow limiting accumulations there.
OK, so you get the picture. But the reason for this post is to show you that when a storm has not even formed, speculations like the above can only be made from computer analysis.
Here are two very reliable computer models that tell us two very different stories: • The 12Z NAM shows a foot of snow around the New York City area, while the 12 GFS shows only about six inches • The 12Z NAM shows about four inches across western Long Island, while the 12 GFS shows about eight inches • The 12Z NAM shows about sixteen inches in northeastern New Jersey, while the 12 GFS shows about ten inches • The 12Z NAM shows about four inches in southwestern Connecticut, while the 12 GFS shows about eight inches • The 12Z NAM shows about fifteen hear Philadelphia, while the 12 GFS shows about eight inches
All in all, this will continue to be a tricky forecast that will not be nailed down until tomorrow when the storm develops.
Enjoy the weather – it’s the only weather you got!
You heard blizzard many times this winter... but not like this! Severe winter weather watches and warnings are grabbing the attention of millions across the country as all eyes are on a developing storm system that threatens to absolutely slam thenortheastern states with extremely heavy snow, fierce hurricane force winds, torrential rains on the coast, along with battering waves and coastal flooding. A Snow Hurricane if you will -- a storm which has been quoted as "a decade of storms rolled into one," and "the perfect storm part two," or "nothing short of a monster!"
Well over a foot of snow is forecast in locations just inland from the coast from New Jersey to Maine northward to the Canadian border and beyond. And if you go even further inland, you could be looking at accumulations approaching 30 or 40 inches in the higher elevations. Snow drifts will be at least three to five feet in areas. The heavy wet snow, combined with winds in excess of 40 mph will cause dangerous blizzard conditions for hours on end. This will likely lead to downed trees, power outages and impassible roads. Coastal regions from Long Island to northern Maine will receive hurricane-force winds at the storm’s peak, along with several inches of windswept rain. These areas could also expect to see coastal flooding from the onshore flow literally pushing the ocean onto land. And to top it off... this is a long duration event! Beginning overnight Wednesday and lasting until Saturday for some areas. This is because the developing low pressure will approach the area, stall, begin to move away, then actually hook back... and as it does so it will deliver round after round of severe wintry weather before finally moving back out to sea late Friday.
When all is said and done this storm will be one for the record books. Its unique track, its extreme force and its ability to affect millions of people in its path will all need to be taken into consideration.
Freezing Temperatures... If any of you have been outside the past several days, you surely noticed it's a bit cold out. The good news is the zephyr like wind over the past weekend should be dying down, so congrats on surviving the Great Winter Wind Weekend of '10. Down here in DC, the Potomac is starting to freeze. Chunks of ice are flowing. Unfortunately, for those of you adverse to the cold you'd better hunker down and bundle up - it looks like the frigid temperatures are going to be with us for the foreseeable future.
The potential for more cold even triggered an automatic halt on Monday to trading on New York’s ICE Futures US exchange (think damaged orange crops in Florida).
Around the World... China's national meteorological office warned that temperatures in the nation's far north could fall to around minus 32 degrees Celsius. The image on the right acquired from NASA's Terra satellite on January 4, shows the record snowfall that covered Beijing and much of China after the new year.
Our friends across the pond in the UK are experiencing lows from -2 to -8C. Even in Russia where they are used to the cold, lows tonight in Moscow are expected to hover around zero Fahrenheit.
More Snow??? The upshot here (for the cold averse) looks to be the potential for more snow across the Northeast toward the end of the week. I firmly believe that as long as its going to be cold it may as well snow.
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About The Northeast Quadrant
The Northeast Quadrant is a highly informative blog and global interactive social community for the weather obsessed, written and managed by the weather obsessed!
Near daily blog posts and news shares about ever-changing weather patterns, the evolution of dynamic storm systems, the controversy surrounding climate change; and its effects on our cities, nation and the world, The Northeast Quadrant takes you beyond the weather and brings you closer to science through its unique presentation of incredible news stories and vibrant personal experiences! With thousands of web hits directly on the blog, hundreds of Facebook fans, and Twitter followers, and an overwhelming viewer audience on YouTube, The Northeast Quadrant continues to grow!
Bookmark and subscribe to http://northeastquadrant.blogspot.com/ and enjoy! In doing so you'll join the global community from countries around the world that regularly visit The Northeast Quadrant.
What are people saying about The Northeast Quadrant?
"Congratulations to The Northeast Quadrant for making weather fun! This is not the kind of information you get from your local weatherperson." – Janette from Washington, DC
"I am in the midst of grueling Navy Weather Forecasting school. It's fun sometimes, but we don't really get into anything outside of the subject matter. I appreciate The Northeast Quadrant because it's an interesting look at weather and facts. It provides a much needed break from mundane, tedious weather lessons! Thanks Devin!" – Mack from Biloxi, Mississippi
"I really enjoy reading The Northeast Quadrant! Devin does a great job and keeps things interesting. You can see the passion he has for the tropics and that's something I always respect! I have learned as a teacher of meteorology, that you can't teach passion – you either have it, or you don't!" – Greg from Starkville, Mississippi
"Throughout all the recent Icelandic volcanic news, we at Know Your Money like to keep updated with blogs to discover their opinion of what is going on. The Northeast Quadrant offers a great deal of interest to us with regards to its intake on weather etc., and its impact on the economy... so thank you!" – Claire from United Kingdom
"I visit The Northeast Quadrant at least once a week for weather and science updates on things happening around the world. What I often find interesting is that I will read The Northeast Quadrant in the early part of the day and learn something that isn't on the news until later that night. I would be remiss if I didn't mention the fantastic pictures everyone sends in from all over!" – Staci from Union, New Jersey
"I visit The Northeast Quadrant at least 3-5 times a week. I love the pictures and funny stories, articles, quotes, etc. The blog is a good resource, it's entertaining and has valuable information. It has actually made me more interested in what is going on with the weather and why things happen." – Glen from Orem, Utah
"I find myself visiting The Northeast Quadrant more than I ever expected! I enjoy seeing Devin act so funny when he reports on various weather phenomenon. He really makes me like weather, and I particularly enjoy the photos and videos. The Northeast Quadrant has actually changed my perspective on weather and science." – Meghan from Silver Spring, Maryland
"I love The Northeast Quadrant! The information given to me is always accurate and informative. When we were listening to the news about upcoming storms this past winter, I relied on The Northeast Quadrant more than the local news. I liked watching Devin at the East River reporting and nearly getting blown away! There were always updates every few hours, and in fact I was able to prepare in advance of the storm. I also enjoy looking at and submitting personal photos pertaining to the weather!" – Robin from Edison, New Jersey
Marketing and Communications Professional; Weather Enthusiast; Recreational Storm Tracker and Reporter; and Amateur Photographer
Ever since I was a young boy I loved the weather!
There was very little that excited me more than watching The Weather Channel since its inception in 1982. Bringing weather to life was the Channel's goal, and it delivered! I remember watching the local forecast as intense lines of storms progressed towards Edison, New Jersey (where I grew up), and being called by my father to join him on the front porch as he watched the storms close in on our neighborhood. I'd run back and forth between the gusty front porch that lied beneath the darkening sky to the cool air-conditioned living room, starring at the television as I glared at the storms getting closer and closer. As the line of vibrant red's and orange's intensified, so did my interest! My obsession for weather was born, and that's where it started!
With the tools I needed at my disposal I continued to closely follow various weather phenomenon: deadly mid-western tornado outbreaks, extreme Mississippi River flooding, Hurricanes Hugo and Andrew, crippling northeastern blizzards like the '93 Superstorm, earthquakes in the Golden State, volcanoes along the Pacific Rim... you name it!
Nearly 30 years later, those who know me well would say I have not changed all that much.
