Long-Lasting La Niña Poised to Control Weather

Earlier this month the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) announced that we officially moved into a La Niña pattern, and recent images from NASA's Jason-2 oceanography satellite verify. The opposite of El Niño, La Niña is the cooling of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

Both El Niño and La Niña play a major role in global weather. During a La Niña, trade winds in the western equatorial Pacific Ocean are stronger than normal, and the cold water that normally exists along the coast of South America extends to the central regions. La Niñas are associated with less moisture in the air, resulting in less rain along the coasts of North and South America. They also tend to increase the formation of tropical storms in the Atlantic.

So what exactly does that mean for the United States? What impact can we expect?

• An increase in the number of tropical storms as a result of La Niña boosts the chances that a storm (or hurricane) will enter the Gulf of Mexico, home to about 30 percent of U.S. oil and 12 percent of U.S. natural gas production, as well as the anomaly of an oil slick this year.
  
  
• La Niña's cooling pattern often brings dryer, warmer weather to the southern half of the United States, thus increasing the wildfire threat in Florida and California.
  
  
• During La Niña, the northern third of the United States often has colder winters.
  
  
• Increased rainfall in the Pacific Northwest is also common during La Niña.
  

Experts expect the central equatorial Pacific Ocean to stay colder than normal throughout the summer and beyond, so the risk for long-lasting La Niña-type weather conditions to affect North America in coming months is quite likely.

Looks like next winter could be VERY different from last, which was largely controlled by El Niño!

Weather Pattern Could Renew West Nile Conerns

What ever happened to the West Nile Virus? Remember that pesky mosquito-born illness that plagued the North American continent a few years back? The disease seemed almost non-existent last year with the Swine Flu outbreak stealing its thunder. But guess what? This year it could come back, and if it does, it could do so with a vengeance.

Because we are in a period of erratic weather patterns that could trigger more cases of West Nile Virus, researchers at Colorado State University are alerting the public to the potential of 'abundant cases.'

A very cold, moist winter followed by a record-setting hot spring, accompanied by high precipitation, and the expected continuing warming trend, could mean that mosquitoes carrying the West Nile Virus could be in higher numbers than last year when cool weather slowed the development of larvae, therefore causing female mosquitoes to diminish their efforts to bite humans and animals, specifically birds.

So far this year there have been no reported cases of the virus, but it's very early in the 'mosquito season.' So what's the big deal? Keep reading...

Only the female mosquitoes bite and transmit the virus. A mosquito lays her eggs in standing water and if the water sits for about five to six days, the larvae develop into adult mosquitoes. Some large areas of standing water can produce as many as 1 million new mosquitoes.

As complicated (or not) as the food chain, it's these pests that feed on birds, who end up carrying the virus after being bitten by an infected mosquito. They then pass the infection on to uninfected mosquitoes, thus helping spread the disease that in turn infect humans and other animals.

Yikes! I can't write anymore. I'm too grossed out and need go sit next to a citronella candle and cover myself with OFF spray!

Social Media's Influence on Storm Chasing (courtesy of AccuWeather.com)

Earlier today, AccuWeather.com posted an exclusive video that featured The Northeast Quadrant and its blogger and manager, Devin Matthew Toporek.

The video tells the story of how social media outlets like Facebook and Twitter are allowing anyone to instantly broadcast weather-related information, and the idea that perhaps storm chasing be left to the pros... Or should it? You decide as AccuWeather's Katie Fehlinger looks in-depth at how the ease of today's communication impacts news credibility.

The video is just over six minutes in length and worth the watch, but if you want to see just The Northeast Quadrant and Devin, scroll to minute 3:10! View the video here.

NEQ Spotlight: Dr. Francis Galton

A new feature to the blog, the NEQ Spotlight will periodically draw attention to those who influenced and shaped the science of meteorology!

There's one weather pioneer who has fallen off the 'radar' and today, the inaugural NEQ Spotlight pays respect to his can't-live-without meteorological breakthrough: the weather map! I'm talking about Dr. Francis Galton and his instrumental invention dates back to the mid-19th century and still today, is a standard tool in weather forecasting.

Interestingly, Galton never held any academic or professional post. Instead, he did his experimenting at home or during his travels. His earliest research had to do with meteorology, and in his 1863 book, Meteorgraphica, he devised the weather map (which first appeared in the London Times in 1875), and he also proposed a theory of anticyclones - and the hugely important role they play in weather movements and conditions. He also was the first to establish a complete record of short-term climatic phenomena on a European scale.

The invention of the weather map was obviously incredible, but why is the anticyclone such a big deal? This invention greatly increased the scientific understanding of how weather systems work. Whereas cyclones rotate counter- or anti-clockwise in the northern hemisphere, the anticyclones rotate clockwise. Both rotate in the opposite direction in the southern hemisphere. One of the most famous anticyclones is the Bermuda High.

In addition to these great inventions and discoveries, Galton was also instrumental in establishing the Meteorgraphica Office and the National Physical Laboratory in London.

Hats off to you Dr. Galton! Thanks for the weather map... and anticyclone!

Summer Sun, Something's Begun...

It seems we've been experiencing "summer-like" weather for weeks now, but alas, you can finally stop saying "summer-like" and just call it "summer!" That's because two minutes ago at 7:28 a.m, the northern hemisphere officially entered into the summer solstice – and the longest day of the year – okay, maybe not the longest but you do have more daylight today than any other day of the year!

During the summer solstice, the sun angle reaches it's highest point on the horizon as it hovers above the tropic of cancer located at about 23.5 degrees north.

Much like The Northeast Quadrant reported on the vernal (spring) equinox, throughout history, man has marked the onset of summer in different ways:

• The Chinese marked the day by honoring Li, the Chinese Goddess of Light
  
• The Celts & Slavs celebrated the first day of summer with dancing around bonfires to help increase the sun's energy
  
• The Druids' celebration of the day as the "wedding of Heaven and Earth", resulting in the present day belief of a "lucky" wedding in June
  
• The English celebrate the day at Stonehenge and Avebury, where thousands gather to welcome the sunrise on the Summer Solstice

As for me and many others, we'll be celebrating summer by vacationing, heading the beach, lying out in the sun, enjoying the outdoors, playing sports, and most importantly, tracking hurricanes!

So in conclusion, stay cool, enjoy today and enjoy summer! Starting tomorrow through the first day of Winter on December 21, there will be a gradual lengthening of nights and shortening of days. But that doesn't mean it'll get cooler – climatologically, the hottest part of the year is yet to come... we'll look towards the last week of July/first week of August for that!

NEQ Friday Review, V.7

In the past week we’ve watched a hopeful tropical cyclone (92L) get ripped apart in the Atlantic and saw two depressions flare up in the eastern Pacific, one of which became the second named tropical storm of that basin’s hurricane season.

92L didn’t do much but cause some hype and get us even more excited for an intense Atlantic season ahead, and when things really do get going, you can bet the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron Hurricane Hunters will be on top of the storm (no pun intended). This week’s NEQ Friday Review takes a look at how this recon team makes calculated risks to help save lives and protect property.

These hurricane hunters are the only operational unit in the world flying weather reconnaissance on a routine basis. Airborne in a tropical cyclone for hours at a time, the crew consists of a pilot, co-pilot, navigator, flight meteorologist and weather-reconnaissance loadmaster. Slicing through the eyewall of a hurricane, buffeted by howling winds, blinding rain, hail, and violent updrafts and downdrafts before entering the relative calm of the storm, the team works together during their mission to continuously collect critical weather data and send it directly to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) via satellite communications.

Initial missions are flown at low levels, between 500 feet and 1,500 feet. As the storm strengthens, the hurricane hunters enter higher altitudes, where, when the storm is strong enough, they’ll make several passes through the eye.

Among a wide variety of tools hurricane hunters use and deploy on their mission, are GPS-enabled dropsondes, which they release into the eye of a storm to obtain measurements of pressure, humidity, temperature, and wind direction and speed, therefore providing a better idea of a storm’s structure and its intensity.

As dangerous (or exciting) as this seems, for most hurricane hunters, this is what they live for and are willing to die for. And guess what? It’s all for us – to improve forecasts and protect our lives and property.

Have a great weekend and be hurricane ready!

Social Media and the 2010 Hurricane Season

Hurricane season is here and with an extremely active several months expected ahead, you can be sure social media will play a huge role in disseminating critical storm-related information.

Social media has as history of helping people find friends and relatives after several high-profile disasters, such as the tsunami that struck Indonesia in 2004 and Hurricane Katrina in 2005. And now in 2010, as millions upon millions of U.S. residents and tourists will at some point this season likely be in harms way as a tropical cyclone barrels itself towards our coastlines, everyone from emergency managers and hurricane forecasters, to traditional media and bloggers (such as The Northeast Quadrant), will use these means to increase their reach.

In fact, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) plans, at the very least, to create a Facebook page by the end of this month. For those who sign up, you can expect to receive up-to-the-minute storm advisories, watches and warnings, as well as evacuation orders and safety tips. The page will also serve as a portal to post photos, videos and storm reports.

So what about Twitter? For the time being, the NHC says it is steering clear of it because the 140-character limit is not enough space to provide enough information (don't we all know that is true)!

Related blog spot: Severe Weather with a Chance of Tweets!

The Roaring 40s

This past weekend I watched a special on the Science Channel about the Roaring 40s (also known as the Furious Forties). A phenomenon I had heard about before but never paid much mind to, the Roaring 40s actually turned on my interest as I discovered more about it.

The Roaring 40s refers to the parallel latitudes between 40° South and 50° South, which happens to only pass through the countries of New Zealand, Chile and Argentina. Because of the very reason that prevailing westerly winds moving through these latitudes are hardly disrupted by land, they, and the choppy seas they churn up, have for years shaped the pelagic coastlines they batter.

Global wind currents like the Roaring 40s are influenced by the Earth's shape and spin, and by basic thermodynamics, such as hot air rising and cold air sinking. The great speed of their winds is produced because of the relative change in rotational speed of the land at the Earth's surface. Because of this, the Roaring 40s vary greatly from day to day, across the seasons, and also from year to year.

Anyway, you are probably wondering why I am so into this phenomenon, but if you saw the special you would know! You’d see jagged mountains, rugged coastlines, lush rainforests, exotic habitats, unusual wildlife, dramatic seas, and a magnificent take on one of the many natural features that shape planet Earth. I guess it's just one of those occurrences that make you feel so small and insignificant to the power of nature!

That is all…

Miles of Gulf Pipeline at the Mercy of Hurricanes

As if the current environmental disaster in the Gulf is not enough, a new report published in the journal, Geophysical Research Letters, is highlighting the potential for a hurricane (or hurricanes) this season to create strong enough underwater waves to dig up and potentially sever oil pipelines that run across the ocean floor, therefore complicating the already compromising situation.

At least 31,000 miles of pipelines snake across Gulf and hurricanes have long been known to cause a range of damage to them. In the wake of Hurricane Katrina in 2005 there were 299 reports of damage to pipelines, just to be followed by 243 reports later that season from Hurricane Rita – so there is clear evidence that not only could a hurricane exacerbate the current spill, it could cause another one.

How does it happen? Historically speaking, the howling winds of hurricanes can generate strong currents along the sea floor, therefore scouring the seabed, picking up sediment from some places and piling it up in others. This scouring of sediment has the ability to create underwater horizontal mudslides that could lead to the damaged oil pipelines.

The problem does not just lie on the sea floor, however. A strong hurricane along with its gusty winds and towering waves could also topple oil rigs that line the northern Gulf. After the Deepwater Horizon rig exploded in April, it also toppled into the sea. Just something to think about…

Meanwhile, check out the above image of an oil rig beached in Dauphin Island, Alabama after Katrina!Found miles from its usual position in the Gulf, that rig in particular produced 40,000 barrels of oil and 60 million cubic feet of gas per day!

A Future of Harsh Winters Could Rule Mid-Lats

Despite global warming and climate change, recent statements by NOAA's Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL) point towards a future of more cold and snowy winters (in other words, the potential for patterns to evolve similar to that of this past winter) for Europe, eastern Asia and eastern North America.

Why the claim? El Niño and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) aside, the exceptional cold and snowy winter of this past year in the above-mentioned regions, is connected to unique physical processes in the Arctic. The Arctic is warming more than twice as fast as the rest of the planet. This is known as Arctic amplification, and these changes are happening a great deal faster than the scientific community expected.

It seems a warmer Arctic climate and a loss of sea ice is influencing the air pressure at the North Pole and shifting wind patterns, allowing for the disruption of the memory and stability of the Arctic climate system. This will be an important driver of major change in the world's climate system in the years to come and will likely be seen first across the mid-latitudes.

Experts say that given the recent reduction of the area of multi-year sea ice and reduced ice thickness, it is unlikely that the Arctic can return to its previous condition.