The Weathervein - Episode 14 - LIVE FROM BERMUDA IN HURRICANE IGOR

[Filmed Friday 9/17 and early Saturday 9/17] After a rough day of travel on Thursday, Greg and Devin finally made it to Bermuda Friday morning where they began to head on chase the monster of the Atlantic, Hurricane Igor. The record-breaking, powerful and excessively large hurricane is bearing down on the tiny island nation and the hosts of The Weathervein are capturing its every move as it inches closer to what could be a direct hit landfall on Sunday night. Check out this episode of The Weathervein and hear an update on the chase and see some amazing footage of Bermuda's coastal battering!



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Departing for Bermuda to Chase Hurricane Igor

Well, in just a couple hours I will be meeting my good friend and pro storm chaser and meteorologist, Greg Nordstrom at JFK airport here in NYC. Together we will be leaving on a jet plane (perhaps not - a puddle jumper might do the job) to the tiny central Atlantic island nation of Bermuda.

Bermuda is in the direct path of major Hurricane Igor, now a category 4 packing winds of 140 mph with gusts over 160! While Igor will likely fluctuate in strength over the next few days, he will remain a dangerous, large and powerful tropical cyclone as he spirals closer to the island.

Igor should bring deteriorating conditions to Bermuda as early as Saturday morning, with tropical storm conditions developing Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. Because of Igor's massive size, hurricane conditions should develop Sunday afternoon and could last right through the day on Monday. Late Monday Igor should be well northeast of the island.

Exactly what Igor delivers to Bermuda is yet to be seen, but you can bet Greg and I will do our best to bring you as much footage as possible before, during and after the storm! Our first plan is to check-in this evening, get a good night's sleep and wake up tomorrow morning to begin preparing us for the chase!

Wish us luck, and thanks for following!


Hurricane Igor's current projected path.



Satellite image of category 4 Hurricane Igor.

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2010 U.S. Summer Review

2010 was the fourth warmest U.S. summer on record!

NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) confirmed this week that the summer of 2010 was, as expected and fully observed by many... HOT!

Published in NOAA's State of the Climate report and based on records dating back to 1895, the NCDC notes that although the entire country experienced the fourth warmest summer on record, three climate regions in the continuous United States had temperatures in the top five: the southeast (warmest), the central (third warmest) and the northeast (fourth warmest). Several cities broke summer temperature records, including New York, Philadelphia, Trenton, Wilmington, Tallahassee and Asheville.

Here are some highlights from the report:
NCDC's Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for summer 2010 was about one-and-a-half times its historical average

• The northeast climate region experienced its warmest January-August period with an average temperature more than 3.4°F above the long-term average
  
  
• The majority of the U.S. had above-average temperatures last month. No state experienced an average temperature significantly below its long-term average
  
  
• Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Rhode Island, Connecticut and New Jersey each had their warmest year-to-date period and all of the Northeastern states ranked in the top ten percent of warmest periods on record
  
  
• Only Florida and Texas had below normal temperatures for the entire year so far

Learn more about these interesting summer of 2010 facts here.

It should be noted that several weather forecasting models predict cooling in months and years ahead, so if you're like me and found this past summer difficult to deal with, relief might be in sight!

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The Weathervein - Episode 13

Major Hurricane Igor is buzz-sawing its way slowly through the central Atlantic and remains a powerful category 4 storm! As of now, Igor's projected path brings it dangerously close to Bermuda late this coming weekend. Behind Igor Tropical Storm Julia is gathering strength and while it could become a hurricane over the next day or so, it too should remain a "fish storm." Another area of disturbed weather in the central Caribbean is under invest for potential development which as of now has been slow to non-existent to occur, but that could change in coming days as it makes its way towards the Yucatan Peninsula. For the latest on this very active time in the tropics and for a look ahead at the next couple weeks, check out this episode of The Weathervein!



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More GOES-15 Photos on the Horizon

Last week NASA and NOAA reported that the third and final spacecraft in the GOES N-P Series of geostationary environmental weather satellites known as GOES-15, has successfully completed five months of testing and has been accepted into service.

The GOES fleet help NOAA forecasters track life-threatening weather and it is one of the most useful satellites, providing a constant stream of data and imagery as it observes clouds, ocean temperatures, winds, atmospheric properties, severe storm systems, fires and many other environmental parameters covering more than 50 percent of the Earth's surface.

GOES-15 has already started to deliver high-resolution photos from space (see image above of Hurricane Danielle), including the first visible and infrared images of Earth taken by its imager instrument, and the first image of the sun taken by its solar X-ray imager instrument.

GOES-15 will be placed in an on-orbit storage location at 105 degrees west longitude should one of the operational GOES satellites degrade or exhaust their fuel. It will share a parking space with GOES-14, currently in the same storage orbit. Both satellites can be made operational within 24 hours to replace an older satellite.

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Report Suggest New Strategies for Better Climate Predictions

A recent report by the National Academy of Sciences analyzes climate predictions and the difficult reality of the complex interactions between Earth's ocean, atmosphere and land; and the role they play in determining long-range climate forecasts. The report, "Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability," is the result of a NOAA requested study and recommends strategies and best practices for improving these complex and difficult predictions.

People all over the world rely on accurate short-term climate forecasts on timescales ranging from a few weeks to a few years to make more informed decisions. To that extent the report is recommending the following in dealing with the key shortcomings and strategies needed to make more accurate climate forecasts:

• Continue research to better understand and use information from key sources of climate predictability, and interactions between the ocean and atmosphere, atmosphere and land, as well as volcanic eruptions, greenhouse gases and land use changes.
  
  
• Improve the basic building blocks of climate forecasts through better physical climate models, making more sustained physical observations, better incorporating observations into forecast systems, and increasing collaboration between forecast agencies and stakeholders in developing and implementing forecast strategies.
  
  
• Adopt best practices such as working more closely with research communities, particularly universities; making data that feed into and come out of forecasts publicly available; minimizing subjective forecast components; and using forecast metrics that better convey to the public the probability aspects of forecasts.
  

The report also highlights Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) events and their powerful influence on making climate predictions and long-term weather patterns. MJO events have been known to trigger the beginning and end of the Asian and Indian monsoons and influence the development and evolution of El Niño, hurricanes and weather in Earth's mid-latitudes. The report notes that scientists want to incorporate information about the MJO more accurately into the computer models that agencies around the world use to predict weather and climate.

For more information the complete report can be downloaded here.

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Vulnerable Northeast SLOSH Scenarios

Yesterday on Facebook I was admiring some graphics posted by Michael Laca, which using computer generated scenarios, depicted SLOSH (Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes) inundation "worst-case" storm surge situations for several locations in Florida. Michael, a veteran hurricane chaser with over 25 years experience, runs the website TROPMET.COM, and after seeing these startling graphics my interest was immediately sparked to see what would happen "if" a major hurricane barreled into a northeast location from New Jersey to Cape Cod, including New York City. Michael gladly helped me out and produced the SLOSH inundation maps below using the MOM (Maximum Of Maximum) algorithm for each surge basin, which is agnostic of a specific track.

A couple things to note: The SLOSH analysis typically considers hypothetical scenarios – from 10 different directions, four forward speeds, five intensities and 10 to 20 landfall points within a basin, resulting in anywhere from 2,000 to 4,000 combinations of storm scenarios. The program then analyzes each combination and generates a MEOW (Maximum Envelope of Water) for all variations of similar scenarios (such as a category 4, moving northwest at 15 mph, making landfall at 20 different locations within the basin), and then retains the highest surge value at each grid square. The MOM then preserves each of the highest values from each MEOW, resulting in a graphic depicting the highest surge value for any point within the basin across all possible combinations of storms.

So what does that all mean? The maps below show the worst-case scenario at any one point when you consider ALL possible scenarios. That does not mean that for one specific storm scenario, that all areas shown in these maps will experience a "worst-case" surge, since each storm's size, strength, and forward speed will dramatically change the inundation at any particular location. It should also be stressed that these maps are only intended as guidance and should not be used to make decisions on specific evacuations always listen to emergency management and local officials when it comes to an actual event.



Worst case scenario for Manhattan / Hudson River, New York. Exceptionally high surge values of 30–32 feet above MSL (Mean Sea Level) can be expected in several locations, with widespread inundations between 20–25 feet experienced elsewhere.



Worst case scenario for Long Island, New York. Exceptionally high and widespread surge values of 30–33 feet above MSL can be expected along Atlantic facing coastal locations, with extensive inundations between 15–20 feet experienced elsewhere.



Worst case scenario for western Long Island, New York. Exceptionally high and widespread surge values of 30–33 feet above MSL can be expected along Atlantic facing coastal locations, with extensive inundations between 15–20 feet experienced elsewhere.



Worst case scenario for New Jersey / Delaware Bay. Highest surge values of 18–20 feet above MSL can be expected in several locations, with extensive inundations between 10–15 feet experienced elsewhere.



Worst case scenario for Providence, Rhode Island / Cape Cod, Massachusetts. Extremely high surge values of 35–39 feet above MSL can be expected in isolated locations at the heads of rivers and bays, with widespread inundations between 15–20 feet experienced elsewhere.

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The Weathervein - Episode 12

Tropical Storm Hermine is spinning up and strengthening in the southwest Gulf of Mexico and could become a minimal hurricane prior to landfall in extreme northeast Mexico or far southeast Texas late tonight. Meanwhile, the low pressure in the central Atlantic associated with former Tropical Storm Gaston will soon be approaching the northern Leeward Islands and it's future track and intensity remain questionable. Find out what's going on with these systems, what else might be brewing in the Atlantic, and hear a recap of Devin's Hurricane [Tropical Storm] Earl chase in Cape Cod, Massachusetts in this episode of The Weathervein!



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Hurricane Earl: Storm Chase Recap!

September 2–3, 2010 – Chatham, Massachusetts, Cape Cod

Well, I am back from chasing Hurricane Earl in Chatham, Massachusetts on the far southeast tip of Cape Cod. Despite Earl's weakened state, having made its closest approach as a strong tropical storm, the experience was unforgettable!

I began tracking Earl the moment it emerged from the west coast of Africa into the Atlantic Ocean as a well-defined tropical wave which became Tropical Depression #7 on August 25, and later that day became Tropical Storm Earl. Fighting shear and the outflow from major Hurricane Danielle, Earl was slow to get its act together, but as it approached the northern Leeward Islands on August 29, it was game on!

Earl became a monster category 4 hurricane on August 30 and fluctuated in intensity while remaining a major hurricane as it moved northwestward towards the mid-Atlantic coast of the United States. Earl weakened to a category 2 hurricane as it neared the North Carolina coast and further weakened to a strong tropical storm as it neared Cape Cod and surrounding islands.

Earl's forecast sure was tricky, but ya know... I have give it up for the computer models! They handled this storm extremely well, maintaining convergence for days on a "just offshore" scenario. Many folks speculated that Earl could or would make landfall on the North Carolina coast or Cape Cod (or even Long Island), but the evidence available showed otherwise. I am not a professional forecaster, but I do have common sense to believe scientific evidence, and it is that evidence that eventually made this forecast pan out as expected.

I want to 'shout out' to my good friend Greg Nordstrom who called the scenario that panned out well in advance of it doing so. Greg maintained the offshore path in his forecasts for a good week prior to it taking place and he even nailed the mileage the center of circulation would track in it's closest approach to the U.S. coastline. I also need to shout out to Greg in thanking him for staying in touch with me while on my chase, providing constant updates on Earl's current location and intensity at the time. His input helped put me in the closest position on the Cape to witness the 'worst' (or 'best') of the storm in a mindful, safe manner.

That said, here's a video and some photos that I captured during the chase...





I hope you all enjoyed this recap and footage. Before I conclude I'd like to highlight a couple of my 'personal highs' of the chase...

While on the beach in Chatham I stumbled upon (okay, I admit there was a bit of stalking involved) The Weather's Channel's Paul Goodloe who was kind enough to speak with me for a bit and even took took the time to suggest some great places to ride out the storm. His advice was great and as you saw above – we captured some great shots!

I was also granted a surprise interview with CBS News' Randall Pinkston who was was being followed by a cameraman filming their own coverage of the storm. Randall nicely asked what I was doing there, riding out the storm!? I explained I was chasing Earl and within seconds I had a camera on me and a microphone pointed towards my face... and the result – this interview!


Well there you have it! I look forward to bringing you even more from a bigger, stronger storm in weeks to come!

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The Weathervein - Episode 11

Hurricane Earl is about to make his presence known on the east coast! How much of an impact will Earl bring? Well, that is in his hands now, but if you are in the Outer Banks of North Carolina or Cape Cod, Massachusetts and outlying islands, you can expect to feel the brunt of this hurricane as it inches near and passes dangerously close offshore. Find out in this episode of The Weathervein exactly who will be affected by Earl, what the conditions could be like in your area, and what you need to do to prepare NOW!



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