InterAcademy Council Calls for Beefed-Up IPCC

In light of recent bluffs by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the InterAcademy Council representing the world's science academies, is recommending the Panel beefs-up its management infrastructure as well as add various reforms for reviewing science, managing potential conflicts of interest and injecting fresh blood into their operations.

The recommendation, which is being made in an effort to re-affirm the integrity and validity of the IPCC's work while recognizing areas for improvement, is sighted in a report presented to the Panel and calls for the development of rigorous conflict of interest policy. If the recommendation is accepted and implemented, the future IPCC would be overseen by a new executive committee, which will include oversight from outside the IPCC, including an executive director serving a limited one six-year term.

Learn more here.

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The Weathervein - Episode 10

Hurricane Earl strengthened today into a category 4 storm and could strengthen further over the next day or so as it heads towards the United States east coast. In this episode of The Weathervein, Devin and Greg talk about the future track of Earl, the potential impacts along the east coast, and who might see the strongest winds and rain as Earl spirals offshore during the next few days. If you're in coastal North Carolina and/or New England, i.e. Cape Hatteras and Cape Cod, make sure you watch this!



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The Weathervein - Episode 9

Today marks the fifth anniversary of Hurricane Katrina, and in this episode of The Weathervein Greg shares his experience chasing the monstrous cyclone as it barreled into the Mississippi coastline on August 29, 2005. We'll also cover Hurricane Danielle which is racing off into the north Atlantic, while Hurricane Earl gathers strength as it approaches the northern Leeward Islands and heads towards the United States before its likely curve out to sea. Beyond Earl we still have 97L in the central Atlantic which continues to try and organize into a tropical cyclone. Will it become Fiona and could it be our next big threat? Find out here!



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NEQ Friday Review, V.17

This past week marked the 18th anniversary of Hurricane Andrew's landfall in south Florida, so what better time to look back on this destructive category 5 storm than today's NEQ Friday Review!?

What I am about to share with you is an excerpt from a blog post by Greg Nordstrom, which he wrote two years ago on Andrew's 16th anniversary. As most know by now, Greg is a good friend of mine, my co-host of The Weathervein, as well as blogger of EYE OF THE STORM. Greg is also a professional storm chase and instructor of meteorology at Mississippi State University. I'll be joining Greg at some point this hurricane season for the big chase! Where that is and when it happens is to be determined.

Now back to Hurricane Andrew...

Hurricane Andrew made it's first of two U.S. landfalls (the second along the central Louisiana coast) on August 24, 1992 just south of Miami, Florida near Homestead at around 5:00 a.m., and was the third and last category 5 storm to hit the United States. At the time Andrew was thought to be a strong category 4 with sustained winds of 145 mph, but 12 years later reanalysis concluded that Andrew was a category 5 with sustained winds of 165 mph at the time of landfall.

Andrew's highest recorded surface wind gust was observed at 177 mph about one mile inland in Perrine, Florida, with the highest recorded storm surge of 16.9 feet recorded on SW 184th street.

To this date Andrew made U.S. landfalling hurricane history as the fourth strongest hurricane by pressure at 922mb (27.23"). The only storms stronger than Andrew at landfall were Katrina at 920mb, Camille at 909mb, and The Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 at 892mb.

At the time, Hurricane Andrew also was the costliest landfalling hurricane ever in the U.S., but now ranks second to Hurricane Katrina. However, despite it's legacy Andrew actually could have been a lot worse.... How, you ask?

Well, if Hurricane Andrew would have made landfall about 30 miles north, Miami beach and South Beach would have been completely annihilated. It would have been especially worse today, as Miami and South Florida in general doubled in size since 1992. It's a disaster in the making and the proof is in the history...

In 1926 Miami took a direct hit from a strong 935mb category 4 hurricane at 150 mph (estimated) and the city was completely destroyed. Can you imagine what Miami would look like today if another 1926 hurricane hit? The damage would be well over $500 billion and the loss of life would be much higher than Katrina at 3,000+.

Well, there you have it... Andrew's legacy will always live on as a benchmark hurricane and one of the most significant and catastrophic weather events to unfold on U.S soil. Luckily there are no Andrew's on the horizon, but the 2010 hurricane season is still young and it could happen again – maybe not this year and maybe not next – but it will happen again, and it could be even worse!

Have a great weekend and remember, the five-year anniversary of Hurricane Katrina is this Sunday, August 29!

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The Weathervein - Episode 8

Category 2 Danielle is nearing major hurricane status while Tropical Storm Earl continues to gather strength. Meanwhile, a tropical wave designated 97L bears watching and could become TD #8 and later a tropical storm or even hurricane by the name of Fiona. Beyond these systems it's no rest for the weary in the east Atlantic as the African wave train continues to chug along! Where are these storms going and could we expect them take the same fishy route as the late Colin and current Hurricane Danielle? What does the reliable statistical guidance say? Find out here in this episode of The Weathervein!

Note: Some technical issues while recording make it difficult to hear Devin. Turn up volume for best quality.



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Cityscapes Could Impact Hurricane's Path, Study Says

A team of researchers at the University of Hong Kong developed a computer model to track the movement of a simulated tropical cyclone traveling across varying terrain, and found that big cities such as New York, Miami, New Orleans and Houston could act as magnets for hurricane landfalls.

How so? The results of the research, which will soon be published in the Journal of Geophysical Research, indicates that tropical cyclones tend to be attracted towards areas of higher friction. Therefore rough areas of land, including city buildings and naturally jagged land cover might actually attract what would ordinarily be passer-by hurricanes.

To obtain that conclusion the team modeled the effects that different terrain has on these storms to determine how cities that lie in the path of a hurricane change the storm's motion. They found that rough cityscapes (and forests alike) trap and compresses air, forcing it up into the atmosphere, which translates to added energy in the storm and a pulling of the center of circulation towards the rough region. Their model suggests that a city can cause a hurricane to swerve from its predicted path by as much as 20 miles.

Interesting, but not a concept I haven't heard before. Just look at that last-minute easterly jog of Charley right before landfall in southwest Florida! Friction all the way!

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The Weathervein - Episode 7

Danielle strengthened into a category 2 hurricane last night, and just as quick as it intensified, it also rapidly weakened and is now once again, a tropical storm. What does the future hold for Danielle and is there a new storm brewing in her wake? Could we be looking at not one, but two hurricanes over the next few days? Find out in this episode of The Weathervein as Devin and Greg update you on the state of the tropics as well as pay tribute to Hurricane Andrew on its 18th anniversary!



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CESM: New Community Earth System Climate Model

The National Center for Atmospheric Research's (NCAR) new Community Earth System Model (CESM) is now able to study climate change in far more detail, and it will soon be employed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to assess the state of so called "global warming."

One of about a dozen climate models worldwide that can be used to simulate the many components of Earth's climate system, CESM should help answer some critical questions regarding the state of the climate, including:

• What impact will warming temperatures have on the massive ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica?
• How will patterns in the ocean and atmosphere affect regional climate in coming decades?
• How will climate change influence the severity and frequency of tropical cyclones, including hurricanes?
• What are the effects of tiny airborne particles, known as aerosols, on clouds and temperatures?
  

So how does it work?

The CESM builds on the original Community Climate System Model and enables scientists to gain a broader picture of Earth's climate system by incorporating more influences. Using the CESM, researchers can now:

• Simulate the interaction of marine ecosystems with greenhouse gases
• Assess the climatic influence of ozone, dust, and other atmospheric chemicals
• Gain a better understanding of the cycling of carbon through the atmosphere, oceans, and land surfaces
• Review the influence of greenhouse gases on the upper atmosphere
• Pursue a much wider variety of applications, including studies of air quality and biogeochemical feedback mechanisms

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The Weathervein - Episode 6

Tropical Depression # 6 was upgraded earlier today to Tropical Storm Danielle, and during the next 48 hours the storm could become a hurricane – and beyond that possibly the first major hurricane of the season! Where is Danielle going and how strong a storm might she become? Find out in this episode of The Weathervein, as Devin and Greg touch on Danielle and what might be brewing in her wake.



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NEQ Friday Review, V.16

The Northeast Quadrant's 200th Post

So here I am writing my 200th blog post – and to celebrate the occasion today's NEQ Friday Review takes a look back at my top 10 posts of 2010!

So many exciting events have unfolded since the launch for The Northeast Quadrant on New Year's weekend, and so much has been covered through a variety of posts focusing on ever-changing weather patterns, the evolution of dynamic storm systems, the controversy surrounding climate change; and its effects on our cities, nation and the world, and more! But in my eyes, nothing has been more fun than reporting on the following (in date order):

1.) Meanwhile, 70 Million Years Ago... (January 20)
Last night after watching The History Channel's new series How the Earth was Made, I was completely inspired, educated and totally marveled by the immense power this planet’s geological forces carry. The episode highlighted Mount Everest, but more vastly the Himalayan Mountain range and how this super-sized chain of sky-scraping peaks, stretching across six Asian countries, came to life.

2.) Totally Cool Utah Weather Facts! (January 28)
What better way to learn more about Utah's weather than to ask the locals? And did you know a very famous "weather" movie was filmed here in the Beehive State? Check out this video blog post and learn a little more about Utah's climate, its record highs and lows, its average and exceedingly average snowfall, and even its rare tornadic history!

3.) Big Blizzard in the Big Apple - A Video Journal (February 10)
A major blizzard affected a large portion of the country today, from the mid-west to the east coast. Direct from New York City, we recorded all day in the storm and posted the videos here and on our Facebook Fan Page. The evening videos as compared to the ones shot earlier in the day really show the rapid development of the Nor'easter and the deteriorating conditions associated with the blizzard.

4a.) Snowicane Breaks Records in NYC! (February 26)
The National Weather Service in New York City has updated its record books once again! Yesterday's snowfall also broke daily records for that day particularly. 11.5 inches of snow fell yesterday alone, breaking the old record of 8.4 inches set in 1991. At 21 inches this snowstorm is now tied for the third heaviest for New York City.

4b.) Snowicane Exceeds Expectations and Proves Historic (February 26)
Late this afternoon I decided to go back out into the Snowicane and snap some more photos, and of all those that I took, I think there are two that perfectly capture the intensity of the storm. Check out these shots looking crosstown from the east side to the west side of Manhattan (looking down 42nd Street).

5.) Man vs. Nature: Interview with a Forensic Meteorologist (March 4)
As many of you already heard, earlier this week I had the chance to interview AccuWeather Forensic Meteorologist, Steve Wistar. From the basics of forensic meteorology to the intricate weather details that help solve civil and criminal legal cases, we had a highly informative and instructive conversation, and I’m excited to share what I learned.

6.) Daylight Savings Nor'easter (March 13)
The Mid-Atlantic and Northeast is once again taking a beating from a major coastal storm! The storm, which I am now dubbing the "Daylight Savings Nor'easter," began Friday morning and promises to deliver wind and rain through Monday. That's right, rain! Not snow this time! Temperatures have warmed since the last Nor'easter (the Snowicane) and much of the area is now looking at a heavy, wind-driven rain, as opposed to the heavy blizzard snows that have dumped record snowfall across the area since late last year.

7.) Interview with ‘America’s Wittiest Weatherman’ (March 18)
I recently had the pleasure of speaking with Elliot Abrams, senior vice-president and chief forecaster for AccuWeather. Billed on the Accuweather.com web site as ‘America’s Wittiest Weatherman,’ Elliot joined the State College, PA-based weather broadcasting outlet in 1967, and was a co-founder of their radio service in 1971. Elliot is himself a blogger, publishing northeastern weather-related posts on Accuweather.com. His voice can also be heard real-time on some of the many radio news stations throughout the region.

8.) Paul Kocin: The Authority in Northeast Winter Weather (March 31)
I recently had the opportunity to go one-on-one with meteorologist and winter weather expert, Paul Kocin. Paul, a Long Island native and resident of The Northeast Quadrant, is unquestionably the authority when it comes to forecasting nor’easters and analyzing their impact throughout the region.

9.) A Big Apple Hurricane? (July 19)
It's been over a hundred years since a hurricane directly hit New York City and luck could be running out for a metropolis that never ruminates about such natural disasters. According to The Weather Channel, New York City is the number two most vulnerable U.S. city to be hit by a major hurricane, which would prove absolutely devastating! Factors like population density, amount of property near coastal areas and the length of time since the last major hurricane support the city's vulnerability.

10a.) Tornado Warning for The Big Apple! (July 24)
Last night a round of severe weather took aim on the New York City metro area. At around 8:00 p.m. a big-time supercell thunderstorm developed in northwest New Jersey and marched its way southeastward right towards the Big Apple, prompting a string of severe thunderstorm warnings and tornado warnings for the entire city!

10b.) On The Weather Channel! (July 24)
Earlier today I published a blog post (see below) which featured a brief tale of the storms that moved through the New York City area last night. Well, it gets even better! This morning I was contacted by The Weather Channel, who after viewing my videos wanted to share them on the air, online at weather.com, on weather mobile and possibly on NBC, etc.

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